Indian Beats Chinese RM Demand?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 8/27/2007 11:54:00 AM
When the world's largest mining company, Australia's BHP Billiton, says that growth in demand for its wares is coming more from India than from China, I pay attention. According to my copy of the Fortune Global 500, this firm is the largest in the land down under and the 205th largest in the world by revenues. India is requiring more shovelfuls' worth of coal to power its industries and nickel to build up its infrastructure. From Bloomberg:
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said growth in sales to India is outpacing gains in China as the southern Asian nation requires more coal and nickel to meet rising demand.

BHP is raking in higher sales from India than it did six years ago from China, which now accounts for a fifth of revenue, incoming Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said at a conference with reporters in Melbourne. BHP is still looking to invest in bauxite and iron ore projects in India, he said.

India's government plans to spend as much as $450 billion by 2012 to build new roads, ports and power stations and accelerate growth to 10 percent from an average 8.6 percent in the past four years. BHP said Aug. 22 it has as much as $50 billion of projects it could develop to feed rising demand.

``Everybody in the industry missed the Chinese growth story, and what BHP is doing now is to set themselves up for the next stage when India could go on the same growth path,'' said Mark Pervan, a commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., in Melbourne. ``They've built the business for Chinese demand, and what they want to do with the $50 billion of projects is to prepare for the new emerging economies like India...''

[BHP] gained 6.5 percent yesterday after posting its eighth consecutive record half-yearly profit on Aug. 22.

BHP's sales to China jumped 47 percent in the six months ended June to $5.29 billion from a year ago, according to a slides presentation on Aug. 22. Its sales to India surged 56 percent in the same period from a year ago to $1.14 billion, according to calculations by Bloomberg from figures provided by BHP today.

China accounted for 20.4 percent of BHP's sales in the second half, whereas India only contributed to 4.4 percent of sales, BHP spokeswoman Samantha Evans said in an e-mail.

BHP's total sales have jumped to $47.5 billion this year, from $17.8 billion in 2002, and the $19.1 billion it had in 2001 when it was created from the merger of BHP Ltd. and Billiton Plc.

China, the world's largest consumer of metals and the fastest growing major economy, will continue to want more metals and iron ore, Kloppers said. India, the world's second-fastest growing major economy, will need energy commodities such as coal, as well as metals, he said.

``This is a larger portion of the globe industrializing than before,'' said Kloppers. ``It's not one economy, but two economies. We're pushing into India extremely aggressively in selling products there.''

The company pulled out of a partnership with South Korea's Posco, Asia's third-largest steelmaker, to invest in a $12 billion steel and iron ore venture in the Indian state of Orissa in 2005. BHP was to develop the iron ore mine for Posco's planned plant.

BHP is ``very glad'' it dropped out as the Indian government's refusal to allocate resources to the project has hampered development, said Chief Executive Officer Charles `Chip' Goodyear, at the same conference.

``The amount of resources they will allocate doesn't allow for the efficient operation of that mine,'' said Goodyear. ``We determined it won't be profitable for us to create a resource that's not competitive in a global market. Posco since has been trying very hard to get access to land and resources.''

BHP will announce details of its plan to increase iron ore production in Western Australia state to 300 million tons a year in the next two months, said Kloppers. The company is targeting production of 155 million tons from its mines from 2010.

``We've put in a date of 2015,'' for the new production, said Kloppers.

ASEAN's Bilateral Trade Deal Frenzy

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 8/27/2007 11:12:00 AM
In the absence of much progress at the Doha Round, free trade deals have moved from multilateral to bilateral fora. You can be sure that Jagdish Bhagwati would be mortified by what the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is doing right now with regard to pursuing bilateral trade deals with virtually all of Asia's regional powerhouses. ASEAN has just concluded a summit of economic ministers in Manila which also featured counterparts from China (Bo Xilai) and Japan (Akira Amari). As you would expect, ASEAN is keen on consolidating its competitive footing among the biggies. For instance, it has moved up its plans for an ASEAN Economic Community from 2020 to 2015 to improve its competitiveness in regional stakes.

Who's ASEAN aiming to sign bilateral deals with? For starters, try China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand. Channel News Asia brings us news of this veritable noodle bowl of trade deals. WTO, we hardly knew ye, or so it seems:
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will complete its free trade agreements with China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand by 2013, an official said Sunday.

The announcement came after ASEAN economic ministers met with their counterparts from the six "dialogue partners" in Manila at the last day of a three-day economic conference.

ASEAN Secretary-General Ong Keng Yong said a free trade agreement (FTA) with South Korea could be completed by 2008, China by 2010, India by 2011, Japan by 2012, and Australia and New Zealand "before 2012 ... although hopefully we can do it by 2009."

He put 2013 as the expected time for the completion of all the FTAs but acknowledged that "loose ends" involving issues such as trade in goods and services in South Korea remained.

"Essentially by 2013, all the free trade area agreements between ASEAN and the rest of our major trading partners should be completed and the FTAs should be in place," he said.

"This will tie in with our leaders' decision to have the ASEAN community established by 2015," he added.

ASEAN and Japan are expected to sign in November an agreement abolishing tariffs on 90 percent of ASEAN imports to Japan, but officials at the meeting said the gradual abolition of all tariffs with some ASEAN countries would take over a decade.

Ong said ASEAN is not closing the door to further FTAs with other countries or groupings but stressed such trade talks were a "heavy burden" on government negotiators who were already busy on pending FTAs.

He said that for the moment, ASEAN would instead focus on "finishing what we have on our table."

Ong said ASEAN had already "started exchanging views," with the European Union on an FTA accord but had not set any schedule. He also said a joint study was being made on a possible FTA with Pakistan.

Chinese minister of commerce Bo Xilai said that even though the FTA with China was not yet completed, China was already lowering tariffs on goods from ASEAN.

"Although the FTA agreement with China has not yet come to a full conclusion, both sides can already start to benefit from it," he said, adding that it was the services and investment issues that were still being discussed.

ASEAN, which groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, is preparing to set up an integrated Southeast Asian Economic Community by 2015.

Private Equity Goes Rent-Seeking

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 8/26/2007 11:04:00 AM
Very few people are sympathetic to private equity firms. Not so long ago, they were famously fictionalized in the image of one Gordon Gekko, whose famous line is that "greed is good." In a time of unprecedented, nearly Latin American levels of inequality in the United States, they too have become shorthand for capitalism's worst excesses, especially for Democratic lawmakers adopting populist rhetoric. With the possible exceptions of Senators John Kerry (D-MA; see below) and Charles Schumer (D-NY)--whose state obviously benefits a lot from financial services industry revenues--Democratic lawmakers are generally keen on raising taxes on private equity. The showdown is set between them and President Bush, who has always been the quarry of Wall Street. Also, don't forget that many Bushites, like Treasury Secretary Paulson, are private equity-friendly former Goldman Sachs men.

If you will recall, private equity bigwigs have been trying to keep the tax rate on capital gains applied to them at 15% instead the more typical 35% by lobbying Congress. Let's just say that it's unlikely that Congress will do the politically unpopular thing of giving them a Bush-like free pass even if Bush will likely veto any move to raise the tax rate on private equity. Ultimately, things may hinge on Republican lawmakers wary of being seen as Wall Street-loving elitists as election season 2008 nears. (A two-thirds majority in Congress is required to make a 35% tax rate applied to private equity veto-proof.) A good ploy would be to set up Republican lawmakers who do not vote for a tax increase for a ballot box backlash come 2008. The Financial Times describes here the Blackstone Group's recent lobbying efforts:

Blackstone, the private equity group that went public in June, sent a senior Democratic lawmaker a confidential assessment of the potential effect a proposed tax increase would have on its books to lobby against the plan.

In a letter to Senator John Kerry obtained by the Financial Times, Blackstone warned that a proposal under consideration by the Senate finance committee would diminish its market capitalisation by $10.5bn.

Using its own results to quantify the effect of the controversial proposal, Blackstone said it anticipated that it would pay $525m a year more in taxes, while individual partners would pay $175m a year less in taxes.

Mr Kerry’s office on Friday declined to release the letter, citing a request by Blackstone that it be kept confidential.

The former presidential hopeful has emerged as a potentially powerful ally to the private equity industry, alongside New York senator Chuck Schumer, who has said the proposed legislation unfairly targets private equity firms. At a hearing on the issue before Congress adjourned, Mr Kerry compared private equity executives with other entrepreneurs who risk their own capital and therefore merit special tax treatment.

Mr Schumer is expected to introduce a separate proposal that would increase taxes on carried interest that would apply to all partnerships, including oil and gas, and real estate groups.

By broadening the scope of a potential tax hike, Mr Schumer’s expected proposal would be likely to elicit strong opposition by a broad range of corporate lobbyists.

Blackstone did not return a call seeking comment Friday. The firm’s shares were down 3.4 per cent to $24.42, well below the listing price of $31.

In its letter, Blackstone said the proposed legislation, put forward by senators Max Baucus and Chuck Grassley, the two most senior lawmakers on the finance committee, would eventually result in a “significant loss of tax revenues” for the federal government and would “inadvertently handicap one of the few industries left in America where our country is, and can continue to be, the leader on a global basis”.

Mr Grassley, the most vocal proponent of the bill, said Blackstone’s arguments did not support the idea that private equity firms were meant to get an exception to the general rule that publicly traded partnerships are taxed as corporations.

“I’ll be interested to see whether Democratic senators will pursue that policy,” he said.

“Since a Democratic senator sought this analysis from a private equity firm, maybe that shows a new interest from Democrats in making corporate America more competitive,” he added.

China's Worsening Gender Ratio

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 8/26/2007 10:19:00 AM
For a long time now, China has been trying to push two seemingly contradictory policies at the same time. The first is what is widely referred to as the "one-child policy" designed to restrain population growth. This policy has helped exacerbate demographic imbalances in China as traditional preferences for male children are reinforced. In simple terms, a male child is often preferred if only one is allowed. Moreover, technological advances such as ultrasound to detect the sex of the fetus before birth have resulted in more sex-selective abortions. There is no other possible way of explaining China's lopsided national sex ratio of 119 boys for every 100 girls. This ratio continues to deteriorate despite a second policy to discourage sex-selective abortions through banning ultrasound tests and other measures.

The UN recently warned China that this ratio was very much out of order, though the Chinese leadership is undoubtedly aware of the perils posed by such an imbalance. A dire prognostication that is often mentioned is that there will be too many angry young men unable to find mates, resulting in widespread anti-social behavior and even military adventurism. It may sound far-fetched, but the world has not yet seen imbalances of this magnitude; it's frightening to contemplate what may come. In response, the Chinese are drafting more punitive measures for doctors and parents who use ultrasound and the like. From my point of view, however, unless more gender equality prevails in Chinese society, there is only so much these punitive measures can do. From the BBC:

The Chinese government says it is drafting new laws to tackle the growing gender imbalance caused by the widespread abortion of female foetuses.

The practice is already banned, but new rules are expected to set out specific punishments for parents and doctors.

China's Family Planning Association (CFPC) has revealed the extent of the imbalance - in one city there are eight young boys for every five girls.

Experts fear the phenomenon could have unpredictable social consequences.

Some believe that with millions of men unable to find a wife, there could be risks of increasing anti-social and violent behaviour.

China's one-child policy, and a traditional preference for male heirs, has led many couples to try to ensure that their single offspring is a boy.

Some pay for illegal ultrasound tests to discover the sex of a foetus, and abort it if it is female.

"The root cause is traditional thinking that boys are better than girls, especially in poverty-stricken areas," Song Jiang, a population expert at Beijing's Renmin University, told the Xinhua news agency.

"Those people expect boys to support the family."

On Friday it was revealed that the eastern city of Lianyungang had the most skewed population. Among children under four years old, there are 163.5 boys for every 100 girls.

Ninety-nine cities had gender ratios higher than 125, state-run news agency Xinhua quoted the CFPA as saying in a report.

The UN recommends a gender ratio of no more than 107.

I have also featured a host of recent stories from the China Daily on the matter. You can be certain that this topic is high on the priorities of the Chinese leadership. Whether it can come up with effective policies to lessen this imbalance is another question, for an attitudinal shift of great magnitude is undoubtedly required.

Jaguar & Land Rover's Many Suitors

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 8/25/2007 02:09:00 PM
It all makes sense circa 2007 when you see the four high-profile parties lining up to buy the famous British auto brands of Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford. Although Ford has said that a decision on a sale is not immediately forthcoming, it is nonetheless entertaining serious bids. Despite recent liquidity concerns, it seems financial markets are calming down somewhat to enable private-equity players like TPG Capital, One Equity Partners, and Ripplewood Holdings to make serious runs at the English duo. What makes things interesting is that these private equity players have former Ford men in their teams. TPG has former Jaguar and Land Rover chief executive Bob Dover as an advisor; One Equity Partners has former Ford chief executive Jac Nasser--known to some as "Jac the Knife" for his cost-cutting ways; and Ripplewood has Sir Nick Scheele who was formerly COO and president of Ford. From the Daily Telegraph:

Another high-profile motor executive has joined the race to buy Jaguar and Land Rover, a move that will pit him against two ex-colleagues.

Industrialist Bob Dover, a veteran of the car manufacturing industry and former chief executive and chairman of Jaguar and Land Rover, has linked up with US buyout group TPG to bid for the luxury marques, thought to be worth £1bn to £1.5bn, say bankers close to the situation.

The move will put him in direct competition with Jac Nasser, Ford's chief executive from 1999 to 2001, who is working with the buyout group One Equity Partners on an offer, and Sir Nick Scheele, Ford's president and chief operating officer from 2001 to 2005, who has teamed up with Ripplewood Holdings to bid.

If TPG's bid for Jaguar and Land Rover is successful, Mr Dover is likely to have an operational role in the new company, although it is not clear whether TPG plans to install him as chief executive, banking sources said.

Investment bank UBS, which advised Ford on the disposal of Aston Martin, is advising TPG and Mr Dover.

Mr Dover's inside knowledge is likely to give TPG, one of the world's largest buyout groups, an edge.

During his career with Ford's premium brands group, Mr Dover was responsible for the introduction of Land Rover's Discovery, Jaguar's XK8 and XJ saloon, and Aston Martin's DB7 Vantage and Vanquish.

As well as One Equity Partners, TPG and Ripplewood, buyout group Cerberus, which earlier this year bought Chrysler for $7.4bn, and India's Tata Motors are also thought to be preparing second-round bids.

Meanwhile, Mahindra & Mahindra is rumoured to be in talks with Leon Black's buyout shop Apollo Management to submit a joint offer. When Mr Dover retired in 2003, Sir Nick Scheele was reported to have said: "Bob Dover has made an outstanding contribution to the three British-based brands. His extensive automotive experience, together with his knowledge of the premium vehicle business, made him a widely respected leader for Jaguar and Land Rover." This may come back to haunt him if his consortium is trumped by TPG and Mr Dover. TPG declined to comment.

And the fourth party? It's India's Tata Group. Call it a potentially welcome case of reverse colonization. From the Times of India:
Tata Sons Chairman Ratan Tata on Friday confirmed that his group was interested in acquiring European car brands Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motor.

"We are certainly having an interest in it (Jaguar and Land Rover)," Tata told a news channel in an interview.

Asked about the details, he, however, declined to comment. "I don't think it will be fair to comment on it," he added.

Tata said the bid for the two auto marquees were not merely meant to make the group's international presence felt, specially after the successful acquisition of Anglo-Dutch firm Corus by Tata Steel.

"It is to get ourselves the kind of scales and think big... to give ourselves the global reach and to take ourself from single economy," he said.

On the much talked about small car, he said the company was confident of rolling it out in the market by "the middle or the third quarter of 2008".

With doubts being raised over Tata Motors would be able to price the car at Rs 1 lakh due to increasing input costs, he said the company hoped to stick to the original price.

The Apollo Group and Mahindra & Mahindra are also in the chase, says the Financial Times. Again, they are both suitors of the private equity and Indian conglomerate variety. It should be an interesting contest for these famed marques.

NGO Addresses Remittance Costs

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 8/25/2007 12:45:00 PM
Just when I thought I'd seen every sort of NGO under the sun comes another whose time seems to have come. Although there already are NGOs dedicated to migrants' rights advocacy and enterprise development from remittances, there has not yet been, to the best of my knowledge, one addressing the cost of sending home remittances until now. TIGRA (Transnational Institute for Grassroots Research & Action) does just that. It claims that fees charged on remittances average in the low double figures as a percentage of amounts sent. With remittances totaling about a quarter of a trillion dollars yearly, this is not an insignificant bite out of the money sent home.

The business of handling remittances is not exceedingly complicated. Firms engaging in this business make money through four main ways: (1) fees as discussed; (2) exchange rate commissions; (3) interest rate float on funds prior to transmission; and (4) handling charges if door-to-door is the mode of delivery chosen. Here are some charts from a recent report TIGRA put out on what it views as the high and regressive cost of sending remittances through typical money transfer services:

Also, here is a selection of combined transfer fees and exchange rate commissions as a percentage of amounts transferred to some Latin American countries:

Clearly, remittance cost is an interesting and important topic that does not get much NGO attention. However, do note that there are many innovative ways of sending remittances being developed that use technological innovation to reduce costs, such as the case of GCash in the Philippines piggybacking on cell phone text-messaging services to reduce transfer fees to as little as 1%. Another example is of Skype teaming up with PayPal to enable sending money transfers between PayPal users--say, from the US to Mexico--without transfer fees. (You can then withdraw proceeds from a local bank account in Mexico.) Still, TIGRA has a point: competition among remittance providers is simply not there in many remote areas of developing countries, and this form of "monopoly power" allows some remittance services to charge more than they could if more competition was present.

Aussie Farmers Do the Rain Dance

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 8/24/2007 02:27:00 PM
It's rather strange that Australia, the world's second driest continent, exports water. Or, more specifically, water-intensive crops and livestock. The recent drought in the land down under is testing the mettle of this rather unnatural industry. Now, Bloomberg notes that if this lack of rain continues, then it will put at jeopardy the fate of wheat growing Australian states which account for two-thirds of the nation's projected harvest. If you will recall, the political fallout from the ongoing drought has been are large. Longtime Australian PM John Howard is set to be turfed out of office for his perceived neglect of environmental issues despite a long record of delivering economic growth. (Like the US, Australia was another developed country that didn't sign on to the Kyoto Protocol.) It looks like wheat may be in short supply as government forecasts are unlikely to be met:
Australia's biggest wheat-growing states, supplying two thirds of the country's projected harvest, need rain within weeks to avoid yield losses and potential crop failure, state government and industry officials said.

``Parts of the wheat belt are in dire straits'' in New South Wales, said Frank McRae at the state's Department of Primary Industries. Without rain in three weeks, 30 percent of the state's crops could fail, McRae said in an interview today.

A recovery in wheat output in Australia, the world's third- biggest exporter, is being hampered by dry weather. Any losses to the crop, which the government projects will more than double from last year's drought-ravaged 9.8 million metric tons, may extend a 96 percent rally in Chicago prices in the past year.

``We're still on a knife's edge,'' said Michael Musgrave, operations manager for CBH Group, the biggest grain handler and marketer in Western Australia, which usually provides one third of the nation's wheat exports. Western Australia, which had beneficial rain in recent weeks, needs more, he added.

Wheat futures for December delivery, which reached a record $7.19 a bushel on Aug. 15, rose as much as 4.5 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $7.085 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade in after-hours electronic trading. The contract traded at $7.0575 a bushel at 5:47 p.m. Sydney time.

Global wheat inventories are expected to fall to 114.8 million tons by May 31, the lowest in 26 years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Aug. 10. Drought cut Australia's last harvest to a 12-year low, while dry weather damaged crops in the U.S. and Ukraine.

``This will deepen concerns over global supplies following a production decline in Europe,'' Naoyuki Omoto, director of Andre Far East Inc. in Tokyo, said today, referring to the risk to crops from dry weather in Australia.

New South Wales was tipped to replace Western Australia as the nation's largest wheat grower, with an estimate of 8.1 million tons made by the federal government commodity forecaster in June. Yield potential will drop by half in western growing areas of New South Wales in the next week to 10 days without rain, said McRae, a technical specialist in charge of cereals.

``If we went three weeks without rain, a lot of the western wheat crop would be in trouble,'' he said. ``It's pretty desperate at the moment, everyone is on tenterhooks waiting for rain and the 10-day forecast doesn't look good at the moment.''

Australia's wheat production may miss a government forecast as dry weather threatens to cut yields, a Bloomberg survey this week showed. Output may be 20.75 million tons this harvest, according to the median estimate of eight analysts and traders. That compares with a government forecast of 22.5 million tons.

Still, output in Western Australia may not be as low as previously expected after recent rain, said CBH Group's Musgrave.

``The situation can still change,'' Musgrave said. ``We need a significant rainfall event to cross the state.''

Western Australia may produce between 6 million tons and 9 million tons of all grain, he said. That compares with an earlier forecast of 5 million tons to 9 million tons.

``We're more confident about the bottom end that we will get 6 million tons,'' Musgrave said. ``We're pessimistic about the top end.'' Australia was the third-largest exporter of wheat two years ago, after the U.S. and Canada.

China's Product Safety "Special War"

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 8/24/2007 02:03:00 PM
The Chinese have called in their Ms. Fix-It, Vice-Premier Wu Yi, to address growing concern about the safety of Chinese products worldwide. Having accused the United States and its media of mounting "smear attacks" on Made in China, it seems that the Chinese now recognize that this matter will not go away in the near future without more attention paid to errant manufacturers. Although Chinese officials are probably right in asserting that most products originating from the Middle Kingdom are safe, there are good reasons for protecting the good name of Made in China as the country is far more reliant on product rather than service exports. From Xinhua:

The government Wednesday declared a four-month "special war" against poor product quality and supervision after a spate of safety concerns over Chinese products worldwide.

Eight categories of products are involved: Pork, drugs, agricultural products, processed food, food in the catering sector, import and export products, and other products related to public health such as toys and electric wires.

Twenty detailed targets to be met by the year-end have been set.

For example, it is mandatory that all food producers are licensed; all pigs be slaughtered at designated places; all agricultural product wholesale markets in cities be monitored; all raw material bases for export products be inspected; and all restaurants and dining halls check safety certification when they buy raw materials.

There are some forbidden zones as well. For instance, it is banned to use five types of strong pesticide in agricultural products, to sell poultry that die of disease, or to add harmful additives to food.

"This is a special war to protect the safety and interests of the general public, as well as a war to safeguard the made-in-China label and the country's image," Vice-Premier Wu Yi said during a national teleconference yesterday in Beijing.

It was the first meeting on quality control Wu chaired after being appointed head of a Cabinet-level panel on food safety and quality control last week.

She acknowledged that despite progress made in the past few years, the country did have some "deep-rooted" problems regarding food and product quality.

They include a large number of small food plants with poor equipment and management, excessive amount of drug residues, and the use of fake materials. Poor supervision and overlapping enforcement powers have to be addressed as well, according to Wu.

She said it was essential to establish and develop "two chains, one system and one network".

The chains refer to the supervision of the entire production process of industrial and food products; the system is a product recall and accountability system; the network refers to a comprehensive quality monitoring system in every corner of society.

"If successful, food safety and product quality in the country will be lifted to a new stage," Wu said.

She also stressed zero tolerance toward violators, including producers and vendors, and government officials who fail to perform their duty.

The campaign is the latest by the government to improve product quality.

In the past month, apart from setting up the Cabinet-level panel on food safety and product quality, it has drawn up a blacklist of illegal importers and exporters, issued a special regulation on better quality supervision, and released a White Paper on food safety.

Despite safety concerns, the country's fast-rising exports show that Chinese products are still popular, Assistant Minister of Commerce Wang Chao told a press conference yesterday.

In the first half of this year, China exported $546.7 billion worth of products, up 27.6 percent over the same period of last year.

"The growth shows that most importers, retailers and consumers have a fair and understanding attitude toward Chinese products," Wang said.

Bloomberg offers a similar summary of the story.

Varieties of Africa Celebrity Activism

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 8/24/2007 01:44:00 PM
The Christian Science Monitor has a recent feature on the many famous activists who've brought their names to the cause of alleviating hardships in Africa. You know them as their faces are endlessly paraded in the media: Mia Farrow, Don Cheadle, Material Girl, Tomb Raider Woman, and the rest. Yes, they do bring attention to Africa, but their focus of attention, particular causes, and depth of knowledge invariably differ. It is suggested here that maybe former US Presidents Carter and Clinton may be doing more with their less flashy form of advocacy, though even the Clinton Foundation has its share of critics:
Celebrity attention to Africa runs the gamut. Some stars show up for a single celebrity poker match in Las Vegas or a benefit cocktail party in New York to raise awareness for an issue. Others write large checks, lend their names, and even roll up their sleeves to help, but still court controversy along the way. And yet others get deeply involved, hiring advisers and studying to understand the challenges, before deciding on what role they can play most effectively.

The "best" sort of celebrity involvement comes from those who "know their limitations better and are usually more genuinely interested in discovering how best to use their status," says Myles Spar, an HIV/AIDS specialist in Los Angeles who advises Doctors Without Borders.

Actors George Clooney and Don Cheadle, for example, have taken on advocacy for Darfur, as has actress-activist Mia Farrow, who – working with the Sudan expert Eric Reeves – is spearheading the "Genocide Olympics" campaign aimed at shaming China into pressuring Sudan's government to prevent violence in the troubled western region of Darfur.

And, famously, "Tomb Raider"-action-heroine-turned-UN-High-Commission-for-Refugees- (UNHCR)-spokeswoman Angelina Jolie has taken dozens of trips to refugee camps around the world and donated more than $6 million to help them. Ms. Jolie has said that she gets paid a "ridiculous amount of money" for what she does, and donates one-third of it to charity.

"We cannot close ourselves off to information and ignore the fact that millions of people are out there suffering. I honestly want to help," Jolie explained at a press conference when joining UNHCR in 2001. "All of us would like to believe that if we were in a bad situation, someone would help us."

Not surprisingly, influential public figures who don't get much coverage in such magazines as People and Rolling Stone typically offer more consistent and serious involvement in Africa.

Former President Jimmy Carter, for example, has dedicated a good portion of his post-White House years to such activities as monitoring complicated elections (68 to date), building houses, and eradicating Guinea worm, hardly the most glamorous of projects.

Mr. Carter, who, like Clinton, left the White House while still in his mid-50s and set up a foundation, has set the bar high for post-presidential public service. But it's not a do-gooder contest, he notes.

"Every former president is just as different as two people that you might meet going down the street," he says in an interview in Johannesburg, South Africa. "It's very good to have some element of competition among former presidents, but I think it is also ... important for each former president not to try to duplicate what the others have done, but to carve out some new arena in which they can be most effective."

Clinton, during his presidency, was not particularly known for his attention to the continent. He made two long visits here, forgave the debts of several nations, and pushed for closer trade ties. But, by his own admission, he failed to do enough to fight the growing AIDS pandemic or to respond to the 1994 genocide of more than 800,000 Tutsis in Rwanda.

"If I had moved as soon as possible on Rwanda, we could have saved half or a third of those who were killed," he says. "We cared a lot about it, but we were obsessed with Bosnia and Haiti, and Congress was mad about what had happened in Somalia. It's something I will have to live with. It's hard to believe there would be that colossal a mess-up."

Clinton rubs his brow and continues. "But it's a sort of spur ... my relationship with the Rwandans is one of the most interesting and rewarding of my life." It seems, he concludes, "that they have forgiven me alongside forgiving one another."

Today, whether in order to make peace with this past or out of a sheer appreciation for the African people – Clinton is a man reinvented...

The Clinton Foundation, created in 2002, works with 69 developing countries on initiatives ranging from expanding access to HIV/AIDS and malaria drugs to reducing big cities' greenhouse-gas emissions. The foundation prides itself on its passion (many of the 600-odd staff are volunteers), tight budgets (many of the senior employees take enormous pay cuts when joining and normally fly coach class), a high level of coordination with the host governments, and "private sector-style" impatience with getting things done right, and quickly.

The former president's ability to reach out to virtually any world or business leader, and the respect they accord him, has proved invaluable.

He bullies drug companies, pushes bureaucratic African governments, lures in top professionals, gets wealthy donors to open their wallets – and then brings all sides together and insists on immediate action.

"The foundation has one rock star," says Deepak Verma, CEO of the foundation's HIV/AIDS initiative. But, he stresses, the foundation has developed a serious name for itself that goes beyond the Clinton celebrity factor. "Today, we are both a real organization with a real management and infrastructure and, more importantly, we are recognized as a very serious foundation," he says.

Mr. Verma says that one of the foundation's greatest triumphs to date was taking a leading role in negotiating lower prices for antiretroviral AIDS drugs from the generic pharmaceutical companies. When the foundation entered this arena, the average cost of treatment ranged between $500 and $1,600 annually. Today, it's down to about $140 a year (with pediatric doses down to $60 per patient), making it easier for poor governments to purchase the drugs and allowing more people to take them – 750,000 to date, according to the foundation's calculations. This, points out Verma, is clearly an achievement with long-term benefits.

But in the often competitive aid community, some critics grumble about the Clinton Foundation's mode of operation. They say Clinton and his team are superficially involved in too many arenas, often fail to cooperate with or take advice from longer-serving aid organizations in the region, and take credit for more work than they do.

Other critics argue that the foundation's focus is misguided. In the HIV/AIDS arena, for example, they say that more attention, money, and time should be put into finding a vaccine against the scourge or into education. "It's fine to bring in medications, but that has actually never been our biggest problem," says Massoud Nassor, a social scientist at University of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. "The real problem is how to properly distribute the medicine and how to educate people about not getting HIV in the first place."

But by and large, the foundation's efforts are well received. Clinton, says Doctors Without Borders' adviser Mr. Spar, is one of the most helpful celebrities on the continent. He uses his clout to "bring together groups who might otherwise not meet, which can be enormously important in helping to develop efficiencies, reduce reinvention of similar solutions, and even to broker negotiations."

On the ground, the average African finds hope in the high-profile attention. Innocent Richard, who hawks a collection of three-inch women's heels outside the luxury hotel where Clinton stays in Arusha, Tanzania, boasts that he managed to catch a glimpse of the man as he was whisked through the back entrance. "This is the president's second visit to Arusha, and both times I have seen him. I love him. I feel he is going to change things ... kidogo," says Mr. Richard, using the Swahili word for "a little." "And that is so wonderful," he adds.

David v. Goliath, Antigua v. USA

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 8/23/2007 11:41:00 AM
I've featured commentary [1, 2] on this story of Antigua claiming compensation from the US at the WTO over lost online gaming revenues as it very much concerns the idea--and ideal--of free trade. If the WTO truly is a "rule-based" and not a "golden rule-based" (he who hath the gold maketh the rules) institution as those Bretton Woods bodies are accused of being, then Antigua should have had its day of celebration a long time ago. However, the US, with nearly limitless legal firepower at its disposal (if there's one thing the US has a lot of, it's lawyers!), has been stalling the definitive resolution of this matter. The International Herald Tribune lays out the importance of this case for the future of free trade, a rules-based WTO, and inequities in the global political economy. It's simple, really: How is the US supposed to sell its free trade agenda elsewhere when it flouts the idea when doing so is convenient?:
With long blond hair reaching his shoulders and dozens of cloth bracelets peeking out from under his sleeves, Mark Mendel hardly conjures up the image of a typical lawyer.

But then there is nothing run-of-the-mill about the case that Mendel, a Texan who was born and reared in Southern California, has been waging against his own government before the World Trade Organization.

It is a clash that at once challenges Washington's attempt to prohibit online gambling while simultaneously testing the ability of the WTO to enforce its own standards.

The dispute stretches back to 2003, when Mendel, 51, first persuaded officials in Antigua and Barbuda, a tiny nation in the Caribbean with a population of about 70,000, to make a trade complaint against the United States, claiming that its ban against Americans' gambling over the Internet violated Antigua's rights as a member of the WTO

Antigua is best known to Americans for its pristine beaches. But the dozens of online casinos based there are vital to the island's economy, serving as a major employer.

More than a few people in Washington initially dismissed as absurd the idea that the trade organization could claim jurisdiction over something as basic as a country's own policies toward gambling. Various states and the federal government, after all, have been deeply engaged for decades in where and when to allow casinos, Indian gambling halls, race tracks, lotteries and the like to operate.

But a WTO panel ruled against the United States in 2004, and an appellate body upheld that decision one year later. In March, the organization upheld that ruling for a second time and declared Washington out of compliance with its rules. That has placed the United States in a quandary, said John Jackson, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center who specializes in international trade law.

Complying with the WTO ruling, Jackson said, would require Congress and the Bush administration either to reverse course and permit Americans to legally place bets online from offshore casinos or, equally unlikely, impose an across-the-board ban on all forms of Internet gambling - including the online purchase of lottery tickets, participation in Web-based pro sports fantasy leagues and off-track wagering on horse racing.

But not complying with the decision presents big problems of its own for Washington. That is because Mendel, who is claiming $3.4 billion in damages on behalf of Antigua, has asked the trade organization to grant a rare form of compensation if the U.S. government refuses to accept the ruling: permission for Antiguans to legally violate intellectual property laws by allowing them to distribute copies of U.S. music, movie and software products, among others.

For the WTO itself, the decision is equally fraught with peril. It cannot back down because that would undermine its credibility with the rest of the world. But if it actually carries out the penalties, it risks a political backlash in the United States, the most powerful force for free-flowing global trade and the WTO's biggest backer.

"Think of this from the W.T.O's point of view," said Charles Nesson, a professor at Harvard Law School and a founder of Harvard's Berkman Center for Internet & Society. "They're this fledgling organization dominated by a huge monster in the United States. People there must be scared out of their wits at the prospects of enforcing a ruling that would instantly galvanize public opinion in the United States against the WTO"

In April 2005, the trade body gave the United States one year to comply with its ruling, but that deadline passed with little more than a statement from Washington that it had reviewed its laws and decided that it had been in compliance all along. The case is now before an arbitration body charged with assessing damages.

"The stakes here are enormous," Nesson added.

If anything, the Bush administration raised those stakes in May when it announced that it was removing gambling services from existing trade agreements. John Veroneau, a deputy trade representative, said that the federal government was only "clarifying our view" that it never meant to include online gambling in any free trade agreements.

"It is truly untenable to think that we would knowingly bargain away something that has been illegal for decade upon decade in this country," Veroneau said.

He added that Washington was not defying the WTO but simply pursuing its case through all legal channels.

The WTO allowed that Washington probably did not intend to include online gambling when it agreed to the inclusion of "recreational services" and other similar language in agreements reached during the early 1990s. But the organization says it has no choice but to enforce the plain language of the pacts.

One reason for all the interest is the David-and-Goliath aspect of the case. Another is that the dispute, as the WTO's first to deal with the Internet, is likely to serve as a major precedent in establishing rules of commerce in an online age and dealing with such prickly issues as China's attempts to block online content it finds offensive.

Yet another reason the fraternity of trade lawyers and experts is so closely watching the case, said Lode Van Den Hende, an international trade lawyer with the firm of Herbert Smith in Brussels, is "that the U.S. is not behaving as one would expect."

"One day they're out there saying how scandalous it is that China doesn't respect WTO decisions," Van Den Hende said. "But then the next day there's a dispute that doesn't go their way and their attitude is: The decision is completely wrong, these judges don't know what they're doing, why should we comply?"

It is not clear that Mendel knew just how much of a hornet's nest he would stir up with this case. But he certainly seems to be enjoying the attention.

In 2002, Mendel - who does not gamble and knew little about international trade - was little more than an ordinary corporate lawyer in El Paso specializing in securities law. His law partner, though, was friends with Jay Cohen, the operator of an offshore sports book in Antigua, who had been sentenced to 21 months in prison for taking bets over the Internet from Americans. Mr. Cohen asked his old friend to see if there was anything his firm could do.

"I had not done any trade law whatsoever but for whatever reason this issue really struck my curiosity," Mendel said. Beyond the intellectual challenge, the case also offered the prospect of a set of deep-pocketed clients in the online casinos doing business out of Antigua.

So Mendel, who recently moved his family and his practice to Ireland to be closer to Geneva, jumped in enthusiastically.

Washington responded to Antigua's complaint by claiming it was within its rights to seek to block online gambling on moral grounds, just as any Muslim country would be within its rights under international trade agreements to ban the import of alcoholic beverages. The WTO rejected this argument as inconsistent with U.S. policy.

The general rule in the world of international trade agreements is that a country must treat foreign goods and services in the same manner as it treats domestic ones [that's "national treatment"]. The United States, the trade body found, permits online wagering through sites like Youbet.com, a publicly-traded company that allows visitors to place bets at horse racing tracks around the globe.

And of course some form of casino gambling is legal in more than 30 states and even local governments advertise gambling services when states run ads encouraging people to buy a lottery ticket.

"This isn't a case of forcing gambling on a population that has decided they don't like it," Mendel said. "This is the world's biggest consumer and exporter of gambling services trying to prohibit a small country from developing its economy by offering these same services. And we find that deeply hypocritical."

Indeed, despite all the obstacles Washington has imposed, including making it a crime for banks and credit card companies to handle Internet gambling payments, millions of Americans still manage to play poker and place sports bets online. Many more would certainly do so if the obstacles were removed.

The United States has exhausted its appeals, so now Mendel and trade lawyers for the United States are arguing over the extent of damages that Antigua has suffered.

Antigua presents a particularly thorny challenge. To balance the scales, a country that wins a WTO case typically demands trade penalties equal to its losses as compensation. But Antigua is so small that any ordinary trade sanctions would barely register in the United States.

"Compensation is not a check in the mail," said Jackson, the Georgetown professor. "It's the right to raise trade barriers against the country in violation." Whatever trade barriers Antigua constructed, he said, "would feel like a pin prick."

Antigua is seeking the right under international law to violate American intellectual property laws.

Only once has the trade organization done so, with Ecuador, though it never actually took advantage of that power. It was used instead as a cudgel to force its opponent to back down.

"This is all new territory," said Simon Lester, who worked in the appeals division of the WTO before co-founding WorldTradeLaw.net, which provides legal analysis of trade law disputes [fantastic site, BTW, and an excellent resource on trade disputes].

Lester said he expected Hollywood, the music industry and software makers like Microsoft to press Washington to work things out with Antigua.

"But the question" he said, "is whether that would be enough to make Congress do something."