California Apart, the US Economy is Pretty Blah

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 10/17/2018 06:10:00 PM
I was watching Bloomberg TV when they brought on one of their journalists to expound on the condition of the American economy. If you were to listen to Trump, the reason why the United States economy is doing better is because of ridding of all sorts of regulations, permitting unlimited pollution, detaching from the rest of the world via trade wars, deporting en masse people willing to work, embracing Stone Age technologies like coal, etc. That is, making America great again is a distinctly backward-looking activity from Trump's point of view.

Actually, the fact of the matter is this: If you separate supremely performing, high-technology, forward-looking California from the rest of the United States, the latter's economic performance is rather mediocre. The Golden State, which Trump hates with a passion (a sentiment California returns back), is buoying the rest of the US:
Trump attributes the prosperity of the U.S. economy during his 17 months as president to his evisceration of environmental regulations and other consumer protections, abandoning the Paris climate accord, aggressively deporting undocumented immigrants, prohibiting people from certain nations (mostly majority Muslim) from emigrating to the U.S., prosecuting sanctuary cities for protecting immigrants, cutting taxes most for corporations and the rich, and appointing a Supreme Court justice who just wrote the 5-4 decision limiting the rights of tens of millions of workers.
Evergreen California Governor Jerry Brown has taken the opposite tack to nearly everything Trump does. So, is California the American laggard? On the contrary, it's doing better than every other state:
Jerry Brown, California's longest-serving governor, takes the opposite approach, and his state thrives. California is the global leader among governments committed to safeguarding the planet from climate change. Corporate California's revenues from clean energy companies dwarf those of the other 49 states or any country. The state's auto emissions law, now contested by the Trump administration, is the nation's most stringent. The legislature voted to become a sanctuary state, preventing police from participating in federal enforcement or asking people about their immigration status. The same assembly also made California the first state to declare a $15-an-hour minimum wage and to require solar panels on new homes. Its citizens approved Proposition 30, temporarily raising personal income and sales taxes to fund education.
The implications are clear. Wouldn't gains be more evenly distributed Stateside if other states acted like California? By not following Trump, maybe everyone else in the US would be doing better too. It's not my place to tell Americans what to do, but weighing the votes of Trump-suopprting primitives instead of those actually driving progress does not seem to be the way forward:
Remove California from the job market and U.S. employment rose only 2.62 percent, a little better than Japan's 2.48 percent and less than Austria's 2.82 percent. The 19 countries that use the euro showed an increase of 2.41 percent. Subtract California's big and small companies from the rest of the nation's and something similar happens. During the same 22-month period, the market capitalization of the companies in the Russell 3000 Index of large, medium and small companies increased at an average rate of 46 percent. California's Russell 3000 companies appreciated 64 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg...  
What do California and Illinois have in common aside from voting decisively against Trump? Their companies are committed to global trade. Among companies reporting sales in the Russell 3000, California firms received at least 48 percent and as much as 66 percent of revenues from their exports (accounting for disparities in corporate reporting) while Illinois-based companies got between 44 percent and 53 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
For reasons inherent in their political (electoral) system, the danger is that the Trump-voting primitives drag down California instead of California being allowed to pull up the rest of the laggards. Here California is showing an example of forward thinking...and the Trumpian cave-dwellers not only ignore it but try to bring it down to their level of barbarism.

10/18 UPDATE: Thinking about it more, on the balance, Trump's policies have likely hurt than help the United States. If the country is doing reasonably well, look at parts of it that are faring the best--like California. It's doing so despite rather than because of what Trump is doing.

World Trade War: Good for the Enviroment?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 10/08/2018 06:27:00 PM
Is Trump's trade war going to save the Earth? It depends...
It's generally recognized that carbon emissions dropped off during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, making tanking the world economy "good for the environment." With some predicting even direr outcomes than the aftermath of the "beggar-thy-neighbor" 1930s as the United States has commenced slapping tariffs on its trade partners, who are retaliating in return, there is no telling how much worse things can get if this back-and-forth process continues unabated. Who knows? The end result could be a reduction in global economic activity even greater in percentage terms than what transpired during the global financial crisis.

In the meantime, though, the Sierra Club is warning that Trump's actions against the PRC are causing dislocations in environmentally beneficial forms of trade on the negative side of the ledger:

Plastic and cardboard recycling: For some time, China has been tightening up it standards on what raw material it will accept from the United States for recycling. The trade war has exacerbated this situation, with China planning to levy a 25 percent charge on corrugated cardboard, paper, scrap plastic, and other materials...

E-bikes: On August 23, the United States started charging 25 percent tariffs on electric bicycles and cycling computers from China. These include e-models from popular brands like Trek, Giant, and Pedego. The move could significantly slow the otherwise rapidly growing e-bike market that has been growing by double-digit numbers in recent years...

Teslas in China: The only U.S.-made electric vehicle sold in China is the Tesla, and it just got a lot more expensive for consumers there to buy. The price of a Model S in China just went up by 20 percent...

Water pollution: An unexpected environmental effect of a drop in soybean production [because of lost sales to China], according to a study by the Northeast Midwest Institute, could be increased nitrate pollution of drinking water sources. Nitrates enter the soil primarily as a result of fertilizers used on corn, but many farmers cycle it by also planting soybeans, which absorb the nitrates. No soybeans to absorb the nitrates, though, means more nitrate runoff into rivers and streams...

Expensive solar panels: In January, even before the trade war really got going, the Trump administration imposed a 30 percent tariff on Chinese solar panels. That was followed in June by an additional 25 percent levy. The effect has not been enormous, given that many U.S. solar installers saw the writing on the wall and stockpiled cheap units in advance of the trade spat...
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It's not a fun thought, but is a worldwide economic slowdown even worse than the global financial crisis what we should hope in an age of Trump when the United States doesn't even acknowledge the existence of man-made climate change?

Sinopec's Shame is Caving In to Trump on Iran

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 10/03/2018 08:36:00 PM
Hey Sinopec, maybe your new slogan should be "Trump Threatens, Cower in Fear."
I almost forgot about this one: Sometime ago, I lauded China for stating that it would not stop buying crude oil from Iran despite the Trump administration's re-imposition of sanctions. These come despite Iran living up to its commitments under the Obama-era agreement JCPOA (which Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of). Apparently, I had spoken too soon. Fast-forward a couple of months and, lo and behold, China's state-owned energy giant Sinopec has cut back on its Iran purchases by half ahead of a forthcoming tightening of American sanctions:
China’s Sinopec Corp is halving loadings of crude oil from Iran this month, as the state refiner comes under intense pressure from Washington to comply with a U.S. ban on Iranian oil from November, said people with knowledge of the matter.

The sources did not specify volumes, but based on the prevailing supply contract between the top Chinese refiner and the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), its loadings would be reduced to about 130,000 barrels per day (bpd).
Where did I go wrong in thinking that Beijing would live up to its word by not constraining its state-owned firm from purchasing from Iran? As it turns out, while Sinopec certainly does not conduct much energy-related trade with the United States, its shares are traded as an American depositary receipt (ADR) Stateside. That is, if it does not want to curtail this US-based capital-raising source, then it has to comply with American laws:
This would be 20 percent of China’s average daily imports from Iran in 2017, dealing a blow to Tehran, which has counted its top oil client to maintain imports while European and other Asian buyers wind down purchases to avoid U.S. sanctions.

 The cut marks Sinopec’s deepest reduction in years as the Hong Kong and New York-listed state oil company faces direct pressure from a U.S administration determined to choke off the flow of petrodollars to the Islamic Republic.sin
It makes me wonder: If China's bluster about standing up to American bullying rings hollows on importing Iranian oil, will it also be the case with Trump imposing tariffs on more and more Chinese exports? Sinopec was rather lame; will Chinese leadership also be chicken out when threatened with ever-growing lists of goods hit with import taxes?

Trump's Plan to Supersize US Trade Deficit, Pt. II

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 9/27/2018 05:51:00 PM
Up, up and away: the incredible exploding US trade deficit.
Contrary to his rhetoric, I noted some posts ago that Trump is actually doing all he can to widen the US trade deficit. The last GDP report for the second quarter for 2018 was artificially boosted by Americans trying to beat the imposition of tariffs on goods imported by China. However, we have passed that point. Now that tariffs are already beginning to be imposed, American importers no longer have the impetus to "beat" some tariff imposition deadline. Voila, today's trade deficit that was far larger than anticipated $-75.8B instead of $-70.8B--though humbly not be me.

So, what will drive the United States' trade balance in the age of trade war are likely two: First, American exports are being hit abroad by other countries' retaliatory tariffs on American goods. This is particularly the case with soybeans and other agricultural exports now being taxed more by the Chinese. Second, American imports continue to climb, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of tariffs in "reducing" trade deficits when domestic saving shortfalls are not addressed. If not China, then there are several other countries willing and able to supply America's fix of imported goods since the United States still needs to plug its current account deficit somehow.
The merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly grew in August to $75.8 billion, the widest in six months, as exports of food, industrial supplies and autos declined, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. 

While analysts said the trade deficit partly reflected an expected drop in soybean exports following a second-quarter surge ahead of Chinese-imposed tariffs [...], the numbers illustrate how the trade war is spurring volatility in the data. In addition, the widening deficit runs contrary to Trump’s aim of a narrower gap and underscores the challenges of achieving that goal amid strong domestic demand -- which tends to boost imports -- and retaliatory tariffs from abroad.

“The data are grim,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd., said in a note, referring to the August goods trade gap. “The administration’s narrative, that the second-quarter drop in the deficit was a result of their trade policies, has now fallen apart, as it was always likely to do.”
The bottom line is this: the Q2 GDP growth figure was artifactual, boosted as it was by American buyers stocking up on China-made goods ahead of tariffs being applied. Now that that tomfoolery is done with, we are beginning to see what the trade war-era pattern will be like. The trade deficit will likely increase, not decrease, since the United States domestic saving shortfall still keeps growing (via Trump's tax cuts). That the US dollar is gaining strength only makes the trade deficit worse as it makes imports more attractive to Americans and exports less attractive to the United States' trading partners. 

Trade War Winner: PRC Leather Goods Counterfeiters

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 9/20/2018 03:51:00 PM
Trump [hearts] fakeries: of trade war and the rising attractiveness of counterfeits.
The folks over at the South China Morning Post have a long list of established and recognized Asian companies either benefiting or losing out from the escalating US-China trade war. However, it's not just these big names who we should consider when it comes to regional winners and losers from Trump's trade machinations. The Washington Post notes that, actually, PRC counterfeiters may stand to benefit from the ongoing tiff.

How might this be so? Those trading in legitimate leather goods will invariably register with US customs authorities and be hit by Trump's forthcoming 10% tariffs. On the other hand, the fakers will continue to try to sneak in their goods Stateside, further widening their price advantage over legitimate items:
Knockoffs of famous brands - Coach, Kate Spade and others - are mostly made in China and arrive at US shores through clandestine channels built to dodge authorities. The authentic purses and their components, also made in China, are shipped through official routes and would face Trump's proposed new duties of 10 per cent effective next Monday.

This all stacks up in favour of the counterfeit labels at every step of their illicit journey: from factory floors in China to street vendors in cities worldwide.
It's not that purveyors of genuine articles don't understand what's likely to happen; it's that Trump is too obstinate to care. End result? A possible windfall for counterfeiters;
The next wave of tariffs target another US$200 billion in Chinese imports, including handbags, leather and silk. This prospect alarms both American fashion designers and global authorities, because US firms already lose billions each year to counterfeiters. Officials also link knockoff sales to organised crime groups that exploit child labour.

"A tariff on a genuine bag is a subsidy for a fake," said Susan Scafidi, a New York fashion lawyer focused on intellectual property.

The global counterfeit trade for all items, from purses to electronics to software, is worth US$461 billion, according to the latest estimate by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. That is more than the global drug trade. And more than 85 per cent of the handbag replicas originate in mainland China and Hong Kong. A fifth of counterfeit busts worldwide involve American brands.
The end result is that trading in shady enterprises is made more attractive relative to earning an honest living. But then again, isn't that Trump's life story in a nutshell?

Yakety-Yak: Mnunchin the Useless Trade Negotiatior

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 9/14/2018 04:41:00 PM
He only acts like the money man when he's actually very impotent in talking with the Chinese about trade wars.
Imagine having a boss who contradicts nearly everything you do that's of importance. Apparently, that's what's happening with White House senior officials in the Trump administration. Just when they think they've got a handle on things, their boss then contradicts them, setting back whatever they've been working on by days, weeks or months.

In this vein, have some sympathy for one Steven Mnuchin. Supposedly the Treasury secretary, whatever that person does (if anything) in the age of Trump, he's been thwarted at nearly turn in trying to fend off Trump's protectionist instincts. After (rather gullible) markets rallied on the back of news that the US would negotiate with China prior to another $200B of PRC imports being taxed, Trump "corrected" Mnuchin once more:
The day after financial markets around the world cheered the apparent good news that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was inviting his Chinese counterparts to sit down for further high-level negotiations, President Donald Trump undermined that very idea. “We are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us,” Trump said on Twitter on Thursday. “Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing. We will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home. If we meet, we meet?”
The upshot of all this is that whomever these administration lackeys Trump sends out, their counterparts have little faith in since Trump would just contradict his own people anyway. Ditto for Mnuchin in the upcoming negotiations which are unlikely to yield any tangible positive results:
The move marked just the latest instance of Trump undercutting one of his senior China deal-makers in public and illustrates why Beijing has become increasingly frustrated with its interactions with the U.S. administration. It also comes as Trump has repeatedly signaled his desire to continue raising pressure on Beijing and is considering the details of new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports or even more.
So even if Mnuchin or even Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross are regarded as (somewhat) more pleasant people to talk to than Trump, it doesn't matter anyway because whatever the Chinese think they've agreed to will not be honored by Trump. That is, they are lame emissaries who do not have Trump's ear:
After last year’s Mar-a-Lago summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was given the task of negotiating a 100-day deal with China intended to be the first building block in a bigger deal.

Ross and his team, however, were quickly criticized for being too obsequious to the Chinese, especially after he hailed a reheated series of commitments by Beijing as a "Herculean" victory for the president. Since then, the commitments Ross has brought home to Trump have repeatedly been rejected by the president.

Likewise, just days after hosting Liu He, Xi’s top economic emissary, in the Oval Office in May, Trump made a very public U-turn by declaring that he would be proceeding with tariffs despite Mnuchin’s declaration that the trade war was “on hold.” The result has left Mnuchin discredited with Beijing as an interlocutor, according to people who have met with senior Chinese officials in recent weeks.
If Trump sends these same neutered folks out to meet the Chinese to discuss tamping down the trade war over and over, it really makes sense to believe nothing will happen. It's the equivalent of negotiating in bad faith since you know the outcome already--Trump will say "no deal." The trade war's proportions will just continue to grow and grow.

Get Out! Malaysia's Mahathir Spurns PRC Infrastructure

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 9/03/2018 04:58:00 PM
Behold, Mahathir's "hit list" of PRC-supported Malaysian infrastructure projects.
 A standard narrative you'll hear in developing countries is that China butters up their leaders by offering infrastructure development projects. These projects are usually funded by the Chinese extending loans without much regard for Westerner's usual concerns about good governance, human rights, or the rest of that white man's phooey.

Well, perhaps that's the story in most instances. Consider the nonagenarian Mahathir Mohamed regaining power in Malaysia. Politically speaking, he has every incentive in the world to disown the China-sourced mega-projects that disgraced former PM Najib Razak signed up for. The explanation for doing so on his part would be simple: Razak was corrupt. These projects with the Chinese were arranged via opaque means. Therefore, reducing corruption means discontinuing PRC projects in Malaysia.

Indeed, that appears to be Mahathir's line of argument nowadays as Chinese infrastructure deals come under fire from him:
But where Malaysia once led the pack in courting Chinese investment, it is now on the front edge of a new phenomenon: a pushback against Beijing as nations fear becoming overly indebted for projects that are neither viable nor necessary — except in their strategic value to China or use in propping up friendly strongmen.

At the end of a five-day visit in Beijing, Malaysia’s new leader, Mahathir Mohamad, said on Tuesday that he was halting two major Chinese-linked projects, worth more than $22 billion, amid accusations that his predecessor’s government knowingly signed bad deals with China to bail out a graft-plagued state investment fund and bankroll his continuing grip on power.

His message throughout his meetings with officials, and in public comments, has been unambiguous. “We do not want a situation where there is a new version of colonialism happening because poor countries are unable to compete with rich countries,” Mr. Mahathir said on Monday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing after meeting with Premier Li Keqiang.
What you have to remember is that, during the Eighties and Nineties, Mahathir was actually one of the Asian leaders at the forefront of welcoming China to participate in regional affairs. To counterbalance Western influence, "non-alignment" meant grooming alternative champions...like China. Fast-forward to the present time and you now have concerns that their engagement with the rest of the world--no longer just Asia--is too lopsided in their favor. That is, China has become too influential for its own good in using it to corrupt others:
Chinese infrastructure projects could be axed amid concerns over economic viability, suffocating debt (US$250 billion), transparency of the contracts and domestic political pressure. As a result, Malaysia, a top trading and investment partner of China, has surprisingly emerged as a new vortex of scepticism and resistance against Beijing’s growing influence in Southeast Asia.

Initially, many thought that Mahathir’s tough statements on Chinese investments were either election sloganeering to besmirch his China-friendly predecessor or part of a deliberate strategy to renegotiate large-scale infrastructure projects with Beijing for more favourable terms.

What’s becoming increasingly clear, however, is that Malaysia’s new government is revisiting the whole development blueprint of its predecessor and is intent on reconfiguring overall relations with China.
Mahathir appears to have left behind his PRC-accommodating days long behind after seeing the true costs of letting the PRC run rampant. They hardly show signs of being better than the Westerners that preceded them for all their talk about mutual development. Leave lackey-ism for gullible clowns like the Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte; Mahathir's done with that sycophancy act--or at least that's what he wishes to convey.

Having set the trend of sucking up to China, will Mahathir's budding apostasy signal a newer trend of quitting it?

Trump's Plan to Balloon the US Trade Deficit

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 8/29/2018 05:03:00 PM
Inside Trump's plan to blow up [and not send down] the US trade deficit to kingdom come.
Trump claims that his various trade wars--against Europe, Asia, North America, and pretty much everybody else--are intended to bring down the US trade deficit. While it's true that the US trade deficit is large, many have argued that it's not really the result of unfair trading practices of the United States' trade partners but rather the Americans' woeful lack of savings. At any rate, despite all Trump's huffing and puffing, the United States' trade deficit for July exploded upwards:
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the goods trade gap surged 6.3 percent to $72.2 billion last month. Exports of goods dropped 1.7 percent to $140.0 billion, weighed down by a 6.7 percent plunge in shipments of food, feeds and beverages...

Last month, there were also decreases in exports of capital and consumer goods, though motor vehicle exports rose. Imports of goods increased 0.9 percent to $212.2 billion in July, boosted by imports of food, industrial supplies and capital goods. 
Why is it that the US trade deficit looks like ballooning instead of narrowing despite all the American demagoguery aimed at virtually all of its trading partners? Phil Levy at Forbes offers a succinct explanation as to why the Trump administration's actions are precisely the opposite of what you'd do to decrease the American trade deficit:
If there were a three-part plan to increase the trade deficit, the first part would attempt to boost investment in the United States while trimming national saving...The trick to expanding the trade deficit would be to make sure that federal budget deficits increase. Unless there is an offsetting move in other domestic saving, this should cut national saving. The combination of investment incentives and government dissaving would be a strong start toward growing the trade deficit.
You'd also verbally undermine others' economies, thus reducing their demand for imports from countries like the US:
The second part of the plan would be to undercut growth in major trading partner economies...the trick would be to instill doubt and foster economic turmoil in partners such as the European Union and China. If the United States could effectively destabilize those economies, U.S. exports should fall. If you pair that with rapid U.S. growth, it should also grow the U.S. trade deficit.
And, for the coup de grace, you'd engineer a currency crisis in other countries that drives up the value of the dollar relative to other currencies:
The third and final element would be to try and stoke a currency crisis of some sort. Perhaps find an emerging market that is teetering and see if you can push it over the edge. Not only will this directly affect trade with the target country – as its currency falls, its goods look cheaper for the United States to import and U.S. goods look more expensive for export.
By blasting China's economy as "weak" and stoking a holy war with predominantly Islamic Turkey over a detained American pastor that's driving the Turkish lira down, Trump and his minions are certainly doing all of these things. Don't be surprised, then, if the US trade deficit continues marching upwards since Trump certainly appears to be doing all these things designed to do so.

How Stormy Daniels Explains US Farmers' Fate

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 8/19/2018 06:55:00 PM
So much soy with nowhere to go; Stormy Daniels may explain their fate.
The Atlantic brought to my attention this very cogent explanation of what's happening to American farmers amid Trump's trade war, by way of alleged Trump paramour Stormy Daniels. It's a story of regret for an increasing number of them, although you get anecdotal reports that Trump is still popular among several misguided sorts. No matter; here's Iowan farmer Christopher Gibbs on his "buyer's remorse" in voting for Trump:
Let me be clear. I want to be supportive of the president and his policies. As a farmer, we voted for the president because he purported to represent a “can do, just get it done” attitude. That attitude is the core of farm folks. But the president’s trade war, now being supported by hush money to keep agriculture sedated, is a bridge too far for me. This week the president announced he is offering $12 billion of borrowed taxpayer monies to continue to “have farmer’s backs.” These dollars are nothing more than verification that the president’s protectionist’s trade policies are folly.

Let me tell you a riddle. “I slept with a billionaire because he said he loved me. I expected to make love, but in the morning I realized I was getting screwed. When I went to tell the world, I was offered cash to keep my mouth shut.” Who am I? No, I’m not a model or someone named Stormy. I’m the American farmer [my emphasis].
Gibbs then continues by contrasting the many years it took to establish overseas markets for corn and soybeans with the damage caused by Trump at the stoke of a pen when he decided to levy tariffs on Chinese goods, which the PRC then retaliated against by hitting America where it hurts most--in agriculture:
In the mid-1980s we were awash with over production in the corn and soybean sectors. Agriculture got busy, boarded planes, trains and automobiles and started building markets around the world, one handshake and one relationship at a time. We used our own funds through our check off dollars and trade associations to build markets in Mexico, Canada, Latin America and the Pacific Rim. And we didn’t stop there. In partnership with the U.S. taxpayers, we built an ethanol industry to ensure another renewable energy source for U.S. consumers.

The world markets, which the president is now tearing down in the name of fairness, were built and paid for by farmers to ensure agriculture had outlets for our production so we didn’t have to come to the American taxpayer for support.
What can I say? While a lot of what Trump campaigned on is a lot of hot air, you cannot exactly vote for someone on the premise that he will not do what he said he would do. China-bashing just happens to be at the top of the list. At the end of the day, you must bear the consequences of your actions however foolhardy, and voting for Trump is as close to  a crime against humanity as you can get at the ballot box.

Trump: Chinese Students in US are [PRC] Spies

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 8/14/2018 05:34:00 PM
Trump to Chinese students in America: You ain't nuthin' but PRC spies.
Donald Trump loves a conspiracy theory: Ted Cruz's dad was involved in the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Global warming is a hoax invented by the Chinese to make US manufacturing non-competitive. Ever so fond of bashing China in any way, shape or form, a recent gathering of executives from America's largest multinational corporations (and some Trump toadies besides) represented a reversion to Trump's mean. Instead of discussing ways to stop Trump's trade war--fat chance of that--they were instead subjected to another of his lunatic rantings:
The president entertained a group of 15 CEOs and senior White House staff at a dinner in the middle of his annual working vacation. The dinner was billed as “an opportunity for the president to hear how the economy is doing ... and what their priorities and thoughts are for the year ahead...”

At one point during the dinner, Trump noted of an unnamed country that the attendee said was clearly China, “almost every student that comes over to this country is a spy.”
Unsurprisingly, the United Chinese Americans (UCA) are up in arms over Trump's racist characterizations. Not that Trump is the only white guy in government insulting Chinese students...
The United Chinese Americans (UCA), a leading federation of Chinese American organizations across the country, is greatly disturbed by multiple news reports that, at a private dinner with corporate executives in New Jersey on August 7, President Donald Trump spoke in alarming terms about Chinese students studying in America as mostly spies for China... 

Recent reported remarks by President Trump, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and Senator Marco Rubio, who has characterized persons of Chinese origin in the United States as a national security threat, are unjustified and deeply offensive. The United Chinese Americans calls on the White House to clarify the President's reported disparagement of Chinese students.

We also call on the Chinese American community and other Americans of conscience to contact the White House, their Members of Congress and their local news media outlets to protest these negative portrayals of Chinese students. And we call on all Americans to continue the fine American tradition of welcoming all international students and scholars to our shores.
Fat chance of that as well for as long as Trump perceives there is political capital to be made from characterizing Chinese students Stateside as spies. There may, however, be economic fallout from this latest bout of Trump's white supremacy. Insofar as Chinese students represent the largest group of international students, payback would be substantial if these students decided to go elsewhere:
There are more than 350,000 Chinese students studying at U.S. universities -- the largest group of international students by far -- and Chinese students earned about 10 percent of all doctorates awarded by American universities in 2016.

"Generations of foreign policy leaders agree that international students and scholars are one of America’s greatest foreign policy assets," Jill Welch, NAFSA's [National Association of Foreign Student Advisers] deputy executive director for public policy, said in a statement about what the president reportedly said. "Blanket generalizations about students from any country will undoubtedly make international students think twice before choosing the United States as their destination. If students, particularly from strategic regions around the world, no longer come here, America will lose the ability to build relationships with future leaders abroad and strengthen our own national security."

"Chinese students contribute $12 billion to the U.S. economy, alongside countless other benefits, so even a modest reduction in Chinese enrollment would be devastating, and virtually every community in America would feel the impact if Chinese students decided not to study in the United States," Welch added. "To make America more secure and welcoming to international students and scholars the president must avoid unwelcoming rhetoric and policies. We are already in a global competition for talent, and students around the world pay close attention to the policies and rhetoric emanating from the White House. In order to avoid a further chilling effect in the United States, it is incumbent upon policy leaders to act boldly and decisively to let students know that they are welcome here and that we value their contributions."
For someone presumably wanting to increase American exports, the idiot Trump probably doesn't realize that higher education is its sixth-largest service export, worth over $43 billion. Already, Trump is phasing in limits on those studying STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) disciplines over fears that the United States is giving away its competitive edge in these key areas of the future to Communist interlopers. I am 100% certain that discouraging its young people from studying in America is one of the actions that the Chinese government is considering should the US-China trade war get worse. At this rate, don't count such a possibility out by any means.