Why the Euro is B**ch Slappin' the US Dollar

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/31/2010 01:50:00 AM
I got a chuckle out of this one: Not so long ago during the height of the so-called euro crisis, foreign exchange commentators were issuing doom-laden prognostications about how the single currency would fall to parity with the US dollar in a short space of time. Well wonder of wonders--the Eurozone is not collapsing. Indeed, the currency has recently vaulted its way past the $1.30 handle. I like to think it has something to do with ECB President Jean-Claude Tritchet--a great, great man--warning against runaway stimulus spending's deleterious effects on maintaining the value of the currency debts are denominated in. As...
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Will Immigration Endanger UK Lib-Con Coalition?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 7/29/2010 10:13:00 PM
Like in other countries--most prominently the United States in today's headlines--immigration is an issue fraught with difficulty. Largely overlooked, however, are the efforts of certain UK Conservative to limit immigration to Britain by non-EU citizens (like yours truly). Though a hard cap hasn't been determined yet, tensions are beginning to surface among the Tories themselves and with their allies in coalition government, the Liberal Democrats. Unlike the Conservatives who used ads like that above during the 2005 election cycle that were just asking to be vandalized, the Liberal Democrats tend to speak less in such terms.Matters...
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Ayatollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Khamenei & Me

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/29/2010 12:11:00 AM
Well dear readers, I am back from the historic city of Tehran, Iran. Since I am rather tired having just returned, I will just post two photos that are nonetheless important for a host of reasons. As you very well know, higher education in the United Kingdom is experiencing massive cuts, So, I had to make sure that I had proof that I actually delivered a lecture in Iran. (Dear LSE administrators, I will hand in my reimbursement forms later this week ;-) Above is a photo of yours truly at the main auditorium of the National Library of Iran. As you can see, a portrait of Ayatollah Khomeini watches over me. Below is another photo...
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US-Led Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement is Vile

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 7/28/2010 08:03:00 PM
If anything else, you must admit that the Yanquis are persistent. With the coming of the so-called information age, a concern which has been near and dear to many US firms has been intellectual property rights enforcement (henceforth IP enforcement). The essence of the American concern is simple: with a modicum of effort online, it is not particularly difficult to "pirate" books, films, music, shows, and video games. For instance, the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) cites an Innovation Policy Institute study that claims losses to the recording industry amount to some $12.5 billion worldwide from physical...
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I'm Off to Iran; Light Posting Until Wednesday

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 7/23/2010 02:45:00 PM
Dear readers, I mentioned earlier that I was invited to present at a conference on multiculturalism run in conjunction with UNESCO Iran. And so I'll be leaving shortly and should be back sometime during the middle of next week. Being an inherent believer in peace, love, and understanding, I am off to learn more about how cross-cultural communication can function better in our stressed-out world.At the same time, I'll be presenting on how the "ASEAN Way" which is the diplomatic process used by Southeast Asian countries might serve as a template for fruitful cross-cultural collaboration--especially in the economic sphere. Here is the abstract of my talk if you're interested.---------------------------------------The ‘ASEAN Way’ as a Paradigm for Intercultural DialogueSince its formation in 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has grown in stature to become the preeminent regional organization in East Asia. At the beginning, its focus was on fostering peace in a region...
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Jeff Sachs' Amazing Takedown of US Stimulus

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 7/22/2010 09:49:00 PM
It's not often that I agree with the famed development economist Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia on much of anything, but he's now delivered a pretty damning indictment of the senselessness of US stimulus. (This contribution is yet another in the series of op-eds run by the FT on the stimulus versus austerity debate.) First, he compares the rudderless way the US has gone about its activities in relation to China, which has carefully studied what sort of infrastructure improvements the PRC needs in order to grow. Yes, there are good reasons why China is leaving America in a trail of dust. Next, he slams calls for further (undirected) stimulus as spending good money after bad in throwing everything against the wall--including a lot of pork--to see what sticks. Call it the revenge of Yerkes-Dodson:Despite the evident need for a rise in national saving after 2008, President Barack Obama tried to prolong the consumption binge by aggressively promoting home and car sales to already exhausted...
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'Ten Commandments for Fiscal Adjustment' Revisited

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 7/21/2010 12:12:00 AM
The Financial Times has been running a pretty lengthy debate on post-crisis response AKA stimulus versus austerity. To me, the matter hinges on (1) whether meaningful additional economic activity is spurred in present value terms than what is spent on stimulus, and (2) whether current fiscal conditions warrant caution lest markets become wary of overspending. As both of these are quite hard to ascertain, we're left dealing with many-handed economists and the odd historian thrown in.You can follow the various, alternatively fascinating and repulsing scribblings of Martin Wolf (neutral over the long-term, perhaps in 'golden rule' fashion); Brad DeLong and Larry Summers (pro-stimulus, duh); and my erstwhile LSE IDEAS colleague Niall Ferguson (anti-stimulus). Yes, the latter is a historian and not an economist, but in this day and age, that may actually be beneficial.At any rate, all their writings brought to mind something that I came across not so long ago in the IMF Direct blog....
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Call for Papers: Int'l Econ Law in a Time of Change

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 7/21/2010 12:01:00 AM
I thought those who work in fields at the intersection of international economic law and global governance would find this event interesting. Our friends over at the University of Minnesota Law School sent along a notice of their upcoming symposium. By all means, get in touch with them if the subject matter is of interest...-------------------------------------------The International Economic Law Interest Group of the American Society of International Law wishes to solicit paper and panel submissions in connection with its Biennial Conference at the University of Minnesota from November 18-20, 2010. The conference is a wonderful opportunity to collaborate with a broad cross-section of international economic law specialists and hear from prominent keynote speakers including Professor Jose Alvarez at NYU and WTO Appellate Body member Ricardo Ramirez (Mexico).Under the theme of International Economic Law in a Time of Change: Reassessing Legal Theory, Doctrine, Methodology and Policy...
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Hungary Like A Wolf for IMF Loans? Perhaps Not

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/20/2010 12:05:00 AM
European financial markets were in for a bit of a surprise Monday as Hungary was not able to agree with the EU and IMF on conditions for the release of another tranche of its €20 billion standby agreement concluded in 2008. Current Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban of the right-of-centre Fidez party ousted the previous socialist leadership which negotiated the IMF deal. Orban had already been PM from 1998 to 2002, but lost at the polls in 2002 and 2006. As is often the case in politics, traditional notions of "left" and "right" do not always match when it comes to dealing with the IMF and other foreign interlopers. Whereas...
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After PRC, Other Asian Nations See Pay Disputes

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,,, at 7/19/2010 12:12:00 AM
Workers of the world unite! (Or, at least some of those in Asia.) After the much-ballyhooed worker suicides at Chinese original equipment manufacturer (OEM) Foxconn, many multinationals sensitive to charges of operating in China to, well, exploit labour arbitrage opportunities quickly followed suit with pay rises. The PRC powers-that-be then mounted an investigation to try and quell matters. Nevertheless, a spectre is haunting Asia--the spectre of labour militancy. In true butterfly-flapping-its-wings-starting-a-hurricane fashion, anecdotal reports now report that countries in the wider region are facing similar howls of protest...
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World Cup's Curse of Nike (& Bad American Mojo)

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/17/2010 04:10:00 PM
Leave it to an American company to mess up its advertising efforts at the 2010 World Cup, bigtime. Oftentimes, listening to Americans talk about football is like listening to Obama talk about deficit reduction--an exercise in raucous hilarity since they so obviously don't know what they're talking about. So, we shouldn't expect much better when an American company opens its wallet while choosing the wrong ad pitchmen for the biggest football tournament on Earth. Sure, the Adidas Jabulani ball received some bad press from those who couldn't master it like Uruguay's Diego Forlan, but when it came down to it, the Spanish victors still wore the three stripes. Which, of course, leaves us with Nike. In essence, it banked on the most highly compensated and recognizable names to strike gold in South Africa but ended up with a bevy of own goals.I first glimpsed the three-minute-segment above on ITV. Nike feted the Alejandro G. Iñarritu-directed "Write the Future" prior to the World Cup....
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Next President Palin, Try New UK Sado-Monetarism

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/16/2010 12:02:00 AM
OK, so the post title is speculative, but I believe most will agree with two relatively uncontroversial statements: (1) there is a conservative backlash against Obama that focuses on his maniacal spending, and (2) Obama's spendthrift ways are forcing moderates' views of the current administration. While most of the rest of the world would probably prefer Obama to a backlash candidate taking the reins of power, there is no guarantee that non-reactionary choices will prevail come 2012. The 2010 midterm elections will indicate how much support Obama still retains two years later given that the US economy is quite pitiful as various...
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The IMF Sucks Up to Asia...

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/15/2010 12:04:00 AM
...because that's where the money is. Above is Korean PM Lee Myung-Bak welcoming IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn to his country. Now here's another story most of the whitebread commentariat has missed, but that's unsurprising. However, they perhaps ought to pay more attention for it may be Asia that rescues their behinds from the fiscal morass they're digging themselves in. It's only natural that with most of the Western world in sorry fiscal shape, the IMF is calling on Asia to play a larger role in global economic governance. In plain English, that's called "rattling the begging bowl in Asia."Not so long ago...
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US [Hearts] Deficits, Pay $2T in Interest by 2020

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 7/14/2010 12:09:00 AM
We have just received word from the US Treasury that America's fiscal deficit for the year has just crossed the $1 trillion mark with one more quarter to go. While this figure is certainly no surprise, perhaps the only slight "improvement" over the previous year is. The trick this and the previous administration has used is to quote some massive deficit projection beforehand to show that, gee, they actually were "frugal" despite running up massive deficits by undershooting somewhat:The federal deficit has topped $1 trillion with three months still to go in the budget year, showing the lasting impact of the recession on the government's finances. In its monthly budget report, the Treasury Department said Tuesday that through the first nine months of this budget year, the deficit totals $1 trillion. That's down 7.6 percent from the $1.09 trillion deficit run up during the same period a year ago...The deficit in the federal budget in June totaled $68.4 billion, the second highest...
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Just Nuke It: Is Cash-Rich Burma Pursuing Fission?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/13/2010 12:03:00 AM
And now for more strange goings-on in Southeast Asia. A few days ago, I questioned the wisdom of the military in Cambodia pursuing military sponsorship, dubbing it the return to the shilling fields. To paraphrase the timeless and nearly universally familiar slogan of Nike, just shoot it, eh? Well, I may now have another security-related concern that should raise eyebrows from more than a few Westerners. Once again following Nike, Burma is perhaps considering the possibility of, well, just nuke it.It is no big secret that Burma is rich in natural resources--particularly natural gas. In their quest to secure energy supplies, many neighbouring countries have risked incurring the disapproval of Washington by warming to Myanmar's ruling junta for economic reasons. At the end of the day, Washington's globocop tendencies only go so far in a world where scarcity of any number of resources is only set to intensify.Now, however, the activist grapevine is sounding a warning that Myanmar's...
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Would American Industrial Policy Create Jobs?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 7/12/2010 12:14:00 AM
Andy Grove, the former CEO of semiconductor giant Intel, has written a much-remarked article in BusinessWeek on how the US can fix its economy and create jobs by emulating the example of Asian tigers that have deployed industrial policy to dramatic effect--as well as China which has followed in their wake to shake the world. Other bloggers have covered this article in some detail. While it is well worth reading, here are the key parts before I dive into another article which contradicts Grove. Maybe we shouldn't criticize Grove too much as he even manages to quote the LSE's very own Robert Wade (see my recent post on how Wade...
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