There's are always interesting demographic discussions about the "West and the Rest," but there are also interesting demographic variations within regions.Take the Asia-Pacific: While Japan is emblematic of the problems with a shrinking population, it will soon be joined in that situation by a number of East Asian neighbors absent large rises in fertility or large-scale inward migration:
"Japan was largely the only country that was aging and shrinking in
terms of its labor force and population in the previous decade. But in
the coming decade, several Asian countries – including China, South
Korea, Hong Kong [...] will see their labor forces shrink. This
will have important implications for GDP [gross domestic product] growth, consumer spending and asset prices, judging from Japan's experience..."
Japan is home to the fastest aging population in the world, with
almost a quarter of its population over the age of 65. The country has
struggled with sluggish growth stemming...
Rousseff+Lula Double Act Unloads on US Net Spying
Cybersecurity is not an end unto itself; it is instead an obligation
that our governments and societies must take on willingly, to ensure
that innovation continues to flourish, drive markets, and improve lives. - Barack Obama [really]
It's been a busy time for followers of Internet governance as Brazil's president and her immediate predecessor unloaded both barrels at the United States' extreme abuse of its dominant position in the World Wide Web's infrastructure. Dilma Rousseff captured global attention not only by snubbing the White House's invitation for a state visit, but more recently by crucifying the double-talking...
Make a Killing? US FTAs and Big Tobacco
There is a debate surrounding the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership expansion about whether participants' policies aimed at curbing tobacco use will be dismantled in the name of free trade. Large American tobacco companies--collectively known as "Big Tobacco"--have certainly not shied away from using texts of trade liberalization measures in faulting curbs to their unfettered access to emerging markets. Outgoing New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been especially vocal about what he believes is a major assault on global health led by the United States.
As per current TPP drafts, some argue that negotiating LDCs will be made to relent on the sorts of public policies that have proven effective Stateside in reducing smoking:
The proposal put forward by the US Trade Representative (USTR) last
week in Brunei would reduce prices for US tobacco in low- and
middle-income countries and make it more difficult for these countries
to enforce anti-tobacco policies like package...
Singapore Needlessly Discriminates Against Expats
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Migration,Southeast Asia
at 9/25/2013 04:30:00 PM
The cute (and very rare) Singapore baby
Here's another interesting feature about the politics of migration being waged right here in Southeast Asia. One of the reasons why the People's Action Party of (PAP) Singapore lost 40% of the popular vote in the 2011 elections is frustration over foreigners purportedly taking away plum jobs, scarce housing and using public services, leaving its citizens to seethe. It even seems its losses are widening. In response, the PAP has ushered in curbs on hiring foreigners--a "Singapore for Singaporeans" sort of policy. With anger not yet subsiding, the government is now seeking to advertise...
Reasons to Doubt Trans-Pacific Partnership Expansion
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Trade
at 9/24/2013 09:29:00 AM
There is an excellent compilation at the Financial Times as to why few expect a "high-quality" agreement to emerge from ongoing TPP negotiations. That is, one with few loopholes and opt-outs for different participants. Given the highly diverse interests of the twelve nations looking to expand this agreement--they range widely in levels of development, size and so on--it is thus unlikely that an agreement that pleases all will be concluded in the next few months. Or, an agreement may be struck, but one which features a bevy of loopholes and opt-outs catering to the special interests of each nation.
At any rate, here are four reasons to be pessimistic:
The TPP seeks much stricter protection of intellectual property than
many want. Poorer countries fear that such provisions will make it more difficult for them to use cheaper generic drugs,
potentially denying their populations access to life-saving medicines.
More generally, strict enforcement of IP is judged to favour...
Venezuela Nationalizes Toilet Paper Factory
"I am the Great MADURO", etc., etc.
[NOTE: For those unfamiliar with the "Beavis and Butt-head" reference, see here and here.]
If this is an example of socialists taking over the "commanding
heights" of the economy, I am at a complete loss for words. To me at
least, toilet paper manufacturing as a strategic sector bog-gles
the mind, but it may make sense in Venezuela. It is no big secret that
the Chavistas have nationalized broad swathes of the Venezuelan economy.
Supply problems? Central planning will solve them, free market be
damned. From Economics 101, I was taught that price controls and import
controls...
US Now Sends More Immigrants to Mexico
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Latin America,Migration
at 9/23/2013 12:05:00 PM
What would Cheech and Chong do about the United States now sending more migrants to Mexico than Mexico sends to the United States? That comedy act is stuck in a time warp where the supposedly backward Mexico always sends its unwashed masses to the United States in search of employment. So are today's uniquely Amerocentric debates about whether to give amnesty to illegal immigrants. Wake up to today's North American reality, boys and girls: On balance, the United States has sent more people to Mexico than vice-versa over the most recently recorded five-year period. The graphic above is from the New York Times, which also...
Cola's Final Frontier: Coke v Pepsi in Myanmar
He thought he was the King of America
Where they pour Coca-Cola like vintage wine
In 1986 Elvis Costello penned the lyrics above to the first song of his album King of America, "Brilliant Mistake." I thought it was pretty crafty way back when, but even then, the snobbery against drinking carbonated beverages was their cultural unsophistication as Costello intoned. Nowadays, of course, we are more concerned with the unhealthy amounts of sugar and caffeine they contain. Such concerns have caused cola consumption to steadily fall Stateside since 2005, but it remains a highly saturated market with the average American drinking a whopping 714 8 oz servings of carbonated beverages in 2012.
Supersaturation of the home market has caused both Coca-Cola and Pepsi to take on a two-pronged strategy. The first is developing ostensibly healthier drinks. The second, of course, involves going abroad in search of new or undersaturated markets. Reflecting the latter concern, it is unsurprising...
The Tricky Business of Catering to PRC Tourists
Since I am currently writing up some tourism-related research, two recent articles about the global industry catering to Chinese travelers caught my eye. While there is some debate going on as to whether tourism is the world's largest industry, we can safely conclude that it is a very large one. Combine that fact with China becoming the second-largest economy in the world and the embrace of Chinese tourism is only natural: As early as the mid-Nineties, I remember visiting Parisian luxury boutiques and seeing the effects of the first wave of PRC tourists as most had salesladies who were fluent in Mandarin. However, that is...
Can Brazil Escape Abusive, US-Centric Internet?
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Internet Governance,Latin America
at 9/19/2013 09:06:00 AM
Absolute power corrupts absolutely - Lord Acton
Think of Barack Obama as the cyber-equivalent of Bashar al-Assad. Just as Assad does not own up to his chemical-attacking ways, so does Obama not own up to his Internet-abusing ways. All his pleas for "Internet Freedom" as they turn out, are meant to make it easier to spy on you and me. American digital hypocrites are thick on the ground, and Obama is just another one of their sorry lot. It is digital entrapment plain and simple.
Internationally, the US-centric Internet infrastructure which makes it so very easy for the US government to ask companies to disclose information...
Li Ka-Shing: When Shanghai Overtakes Hong Kong
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Development
at 9/18/2013 02:13:00 PM
Here's a nice illustration of a recurrent debate concerning Asian political economy that I will be able to use for classroom purposes. Hong Kong-based tycoon Li Ka-Shing, known as "Superman" for his business prowess, has offered a pointedly Asian opinion on the prospects of Shanghai overtaking his hometown as the world's gateway to China. While teaching development studies, I make it a point to differentiate the perceived utility of political and economic freedom. The Western view, of course, is that both go hand in hand. On the other hand, many Asian commentators believe that leaders have the right to withhold political...
Japan's Trade Deficits & Halting Nuclear Power
Deficit-running Japanese are about as unnatural as surplus-running Americans, but we now have to reconsider this conventional wisdom. (Things change, my dear.) Recent years have witnessed an unwelcome turnaround in Japan's trade balance as it has swung from surplus to deficit in a fairly big way. While recent easy money "Abenomics" have lifted the general economic outlook there, there is a good reason why most analysts are less sanguine about the prospects for fixing the trade balance.
A contributing factor to this degradation in the external balance has, of course, been Japan's rising import bill from energy imports in...
Third World Solidarity? Petronas Ditches PDVSA
Just when you thought things could not get worse for Venezuela's economic situation, they do. In recent times, Venezuela has sought to partner with other developing countries for exploiting its energy reserves in the likely belief that they would be more understanding of its political-economic situation. Having offended American oil giants through forced nationalization, it arguably had little choice but to look East.
Today's case in point is Malaysia. Just as Venezuela uses its control over a state-owned oil firm to further national objectives, so does Malaysia. Alike that of Venezuela, Malaysian leadership has also been...
Does US Discourage PRC FDI? Uncle Sam Sez No
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Agriculture,China
at 9/14/2013 07:07:00 PM
This is a follow-up to a recent post about the Chinese food conglomerate Shuanghui International attempting to purchase US pork producer Smithfield. If it pushes through, this deal will be the largest Chinese acquisition of an American firm to date. However, as I mentioned earlier, there are all sorts of dubious "national security" concerns which many believe the US deploys as an excuse for blatantly discriminatory attitudes towards China. I have called it "hog farm protectionism" in this case. Recently, Greg Gilligan, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, weighed in on these goings-on back in the US of...
Demographic Consequences of US Economic Stagnation
US Labor Force Participation Rate
In development theory, there is thing called the "demographic transition" which argues that birth rates should diminish as a country becomes wealthier and more urbanized. Instead of "spreading their bets" by having many children in the hopes that at least one will succeed and be able to take care of them in their old age, wealthier folks believe that having fewer children endowed with high "human capital" via education and so on will better guarantee their success. It is also more difficult to have large families in households where both parents work and in cities where living costs and...
Spain, 'Russian Galacticos' & Soccer (Un-)Economics
I nearly forgot to make this post as the transfer deadline for trading players has ended, but as they say, better late than never. So, there are two parts to this story dealing with the economics of soccer in relation to the "real economy": Spain's Real Madrid and the dismantling of the "Russian galacticos." Never heard of them? Well, read on...
First, I am astounded by the spending of Spain's largest football team Real Madrid considering that there are now "financial fair play" regulations that are supposed to limit what teams spend relative to what they earn. They are supposed to be penalized for spending more than what...
China: #1 in Shale Gas Reserves, Paltry Production
Much has been made of the United States growing energy independence as it taps shale gas reserves at home. A salutary effect has been reducing the trade imbalance America is legendary for. However, the US is far from the only country with a lot of shale gas reserves. China purportedly has the most, but it has been quite slow in tapping these reserves. The numbers tell the story of China's backwardness:
Beijing has struggled to find a way to emulate the frenetic
exploration and production activity of the shale gas boom in the United
States, and the latest setback makes reaching even a modest 2015 output
target of 6.5...
Is US Suing S&P Payback for Ratings Downgrade?
♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,Cheneynomics
at 9/06/2013 09:30:00 AM
In run-of-the-mill stories, there are heroes and villains: I've been in this town so long that back in the city I've been taken for lost and gone and unknown for a long, long time. Today, however, we instead have two major baddies duking it out: the US government and credit rating agency Standard & Poors. It's the political economy equivalent of Aliens vs. Predator. Apparently, the US government was, like many, suckered into buying securities of dubious creditworthiness by inflated ratings slapped on them by S&P and its peers. So many years after the global financial crisis hit its peak, the United States sued S&P for misrating these securities earlier in 2013.
The plot is not that straightforward, though. Recall that S&P is the only major credit rating agency to have downgraded US debt from Triple-A status exactly two years ago. I argue that action was too little, too late anyway in that America's debt problems are only going to get worse due to fiscal...