And 2015's Top Stock Market is...Jamaica!

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 12/29/2015 07:28:00 PM
You aren't smokin' ganja--Jamaica's stock market is tops in the world for 2015. Channeling Steve Harvey announcing Miss Universe 2015 in the post title, I don't believe that I made a mistake in this instance. In the rest of the world, 2015 was a rather forgettable year when investing in nearly anything made you next to no money (or lost you money). Stocks, bonds, cash...it was all a big blah. But wait, there was one exception: while other stock markets worldwide were busy going nowhere (or down), Jamaica's rallied over 80% this year: Amid the middling returns of the world’s best known indexes -- the Dow Jones Industrial...
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Miss Universe and US Hegemony in Beauty Pageants

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 12/25/2015 05:18:00 PM
"Yay, the Americans declared me winner of an 'international' event!" Given my nationality, I suppose I shouldn't complain too much about the outcome of the 2015 Miss Universe pageant. Still, one thing that struck me is that, despite the obviously commercial nature of these pageants--to paraphrase Robert Cox, they wouldn't be held if they didn't make money for someone--American hegemony is all too apparent for what is ostensibly an "international" competition. For a long time, the franchise was owned by real-estate, er, impresario Donald Trump. Then, late this year, it was sold together with the Miss USA property as legal...
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It's Officially Over: WTO Kills Doha Round (2001-Never)

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 12/23/2015 03:53:00 PM
Never again: nobody will be meeting to discuss Doha anymore. During the last WTO meeting, its members decided to discontinue reaffirming the Doha Development Agenda's mandate, effectively killing it off. What's especially notable is that the country which was most adamant in launching it and styling it as a "development agenda" instead of a "round"--the United States--has been wishing to kill it off for quite some time now: The World Trade Organisation is facing the biggest shake-up of its agenda in a generation after its members in effect abandoned the long-stalled Doha round. For the first time since the round was launched...
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More on How Aging Societies Hinder Growth

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 12/22/2015 04:45:00 AM
There's an interesting article on Bloomberg drawing on recent work from HSBC on how aging populations in different countries are likely to be a drag on their growth. Japan is, of course, today's most prominent example of the difficulties encouraging growth against a backdrop of demographic disaster. However, the situation of Japan will hardly be unique over the coming decades as the forces of depopulation replicate themselves all over the world. Worryingly, it is not only developed but also developing countries which will likely experience this phenomenon: From such advanced economies as the U.S. and Japan to developing countries,...
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Like Pakistan's...or Zambia's? China's H-Shares

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 12/15/2015 04:31:00 PM
How the mighty have fallen: a few months ago, Bloomberg noted that Hong Kong-listed stocks were even cheaper than Taliban-infested Pakistan's on a price/earnings ratio basis. As you can see above, that remains true. However, among these HK stocks, there are even worse performers: mainland China shares listed in Hong Kong or H-shares ("Hang Seng China"). Slightly cheaper than Lebanon's but still marginally dearer than those of Laos and strife-torn Zambia (whew!), I guess international buyers aren't too keen on mainland China's prospects circa year-end 2015. At the beginning of the year, the H-shares were flying high. Now...
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China's 'Extraordinary Rendition' of Executives

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 12/13/2015 01:32:00 PM
Detaining executives without due process or explanation: Does the PRC's actions constitute economic terror? Leave it to the Communist Party to find a way to roil Asian markets one way or another. Having (sort of) learned their lesson not to suddenly and drastically devalue their currency as per the events of this past August, they are now devaluing slowly but surely. But, you do have to wonder about its continuing habit of locking up corporate executives without explanation...at an undisclosed location. In honor of the American's "extraordinary rendition" of anyone anywhere in the world without due process for detention...
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Did China Get Its $234B Worth in Stock Intervention?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 12/09/2015 03:20:00 PM
OK, so the title is a bit of a trick question insofar as the intent of official actors in intervening in stock markets was not to make money but to calm investor sentiment. Still, we are in the dark somewhat over how much the Chinese government spent to prop up equities, and if this effort was money-making. BAML recently estimated that the amount poured into PRC stocks was $234 billion. What is more astounding to me though is that it bought nearly every other China-listed stock out there. Such is the reach of the PRC: According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the Chinese government spent at least 1.5 trillion yuan ($234...
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OPEC, From Cartel to Stand-Up Comedy Club

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 12/07/2015 01:30:00 AM
There was a time when OPEC was feared. Nowadays, it's a laughingstock. Oftentimes the most humorous things in life are unintentional. People want to be taken seriously, but their actions seem to belie their...how should I put this...comic tendencies.Today's case in point is the once-mighty Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). At the height of its powers in the early Seventies, it was instrumental in sending oil prices through the roof worldwide as motorists bore the brunt of its will. Let's just say there was more third world solidarity forty-some years ago than there is today. United they stood; nowadays,...
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Brazil's So Broke Olympians Don't Get Air-Conditioning

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 12/05/2015 02:11:00 PM
It must get hot wearing these Olympic outfits when there's no A/C. It wasn't supposed to be like this. Brazil during the tail end of the Lula years was riding high on elevated commodity prices as China fueled a seemingly endless demand for what Brazil was selling...then the party stopped when the PRC's economy slowed down, ending a commodity supercycle in which Brazil was one of the biggest beneficiaries. With the 2014 World Cup and the forthcoming 2016 Summer Olympics, Brazil has essentially been left holding the bag with costly international sporting events it can barely afford as perma-recession has taken hold. As...
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That Makes 5: Chinese Yuan a Part of IMF SDR

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 11/30/2015 07:07:00 PM
Here's another step towards the Chinese currency becoming a globally important one. Everyone sort of expected this, but for the Chinese, it's a major achievement nonetheless. While the inclusion of the yuan in the basket of currencies the IMF uses as reference will not result in a massive surge in RMB holdings there, the symbolism matters quite a lot. As in, China becomes the first developing country to have its currency included in the SDR. From the IMF blurb: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the regular five-yearly review of the basket of currencies that make up the Special...
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Fortress Europe: Trade Costs of Re-Establishing Border Controls

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 11/29/2015 04:45:00 PM
"Welcome to the EU!" [not]. Yes, Hungary is part of the Schengen area...for now. With lurid scare stories about the endless flows of migrants emanating from the Middle East--especially jihadist/terrorist-affiliated elements--Europe's days as a largely border control-free area are supposedly limited. It's a long story, but do note that not all countries in the EU are part of the Schengen area which has abolished passport and border controls. Examples include Ireland and the UK. (There are newer accession countries like Croatia that are expected to join the Schengen area in the future.) Conversely, there are Schengen area...
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Like Clockwork, Russia Cuts Gas to Ukraine in Winter

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 11/27/2015 01:30:00 AM
There are certainties in life that mark the turn of seasons: Cherry blossom season begins in Japan as March gives way to April. Oktoberfest begins in mid-September in Germany. Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, the Russians will cut gas off to Ukraine as the coldest winter months begin over delayed payments. It was ever thus: even before the Russians commenced military adventures there, Ukraine always felt the brunt of gas being cut during winter. Ho-ho-ho, merry Christmas. You don't have to be a cynic to wonder why Russia never cuts off or slows the gas supply to Ukraine during, say, the summer months. For what it's worth,...
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Re: Russian Jet, Tell Turkey Trade Brings Peace

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 11/24/2015 12:03:00 PM
Does shooting down your second-largest trading partner's jet affect trade? I guess we'll find out soon. There's a longstanding idea among proponents of capitalism that commerce between nations has civilizing effects. (Albert Hirschman called it the "doux-commerce thesis.") Instead of having to resort to military confrontation to obtain what you want, you can instead get it through comparatively peaceful trade. Or so the theory goes. Sometimes real-world events have the habit of making a mockery of such truisms. Witness Turkey and Russia just a few moments ago. We have news that Turkey recently shot down a Russian jet assumed...
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Pfizer-Allergan Merger: Tax Avoidance Mothership

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 11/23/2015 03:48:00 PM
It'd be more appropriate if they depicted two accountants shaking hands. In trying to be impartial by covering the entire ideological spectrum of IPE, my link list at the bottom includes the Tax Justice Network and Tax Research UK. These folks are frothing at the mouth all the time about persons and corporations (literally, corporate persons) not paying what is due by engaging in all sorts of fiscal tomfoolery. Large multinational corporations are prone to reporting most of their earnings in low-tax locations such as Ireland for obvious reasons. Needless to say, many nation-states are unhappy about their corporations not...
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China Gangstas II: Smuggling Cash Out of the PRC

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 11/20/2015 02:13:00 PM
Any which way but lose [sic]: Time to get the @#$% out of Dalian. Here's another no-win situation China confronts: Until a few years ago, people used to try and evade the PRC's capital controls on inflows since the rise in the yuan's value was more or less guaranteed due to external pressures to revalue and the upward trajectory of Chinese growth. Nowadays, you still have the capital controls, but expectations for the currency are different--competitive devaluation as its economy slows down resulting in massive capital outflows. What to do? PRC citizens are now engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with officialdom on how to...
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China Gangstas I: Cigarettes & Hong Kong Syndicates

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 11/20/2015 11:21:00 AM
Hong Kong's roaring trade in illicit cigarettes is largely of its own making. As far as I can remember, the violent, crime-ridden mean streets of Hong Kong portrayed in Bruce Lee movies (or even the Sleeping Dogs video game) have never really existed. During British rule, the excellent police force was able to keep gang members in line and confined to activities that posed minimal physical threat to citizens. During Chinese rule, things have remained largely the same. However, things have taken a turn towards Bruce Lee movieland in recent years. With the Hong Kong government taxing the bejesus out of cigarettes, its smokers...
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If Egypt Hates Foreigners, Why Not Tourists Too?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 11/19/2015 02:36:00 PM
It's all part of a vast conspiracy to defame Egypt's leaders according to, er, Egypt's leaders. One thing that usually unites all conspiracy theories is that they lack logical coherence. At the broadest level, it is doubtful that so many entities would be conspiring to be against you specifically Similarly, it is often doubtful whether others would go to such extreme lengths to put you down. It is unfortunate that both are operational in modern-day Egypt after the downing of a Russian aircraft. Yes, it's apparently being called a Western plot to defame Egypt's leadership. While even Russian authorities have now concluded...
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Shaming Israel: EU Labels Goods from Occupied Territories

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 11/15/2015 02:28:00 PM
From the occupied territories--not Israel--to dinner tables in Europe. Are product labels entirely innocuous things simply meant to disclose factual information about the product? Make no mistake that there is a political economy behind product labeling. In the EU, foodstuffs containing genetically modified organisms must be labeled as such. Today, though, we have concerns not about the contents of products but where they're manufactured. Recently, the EU made a move to label products made in Israel's occupied territories as such: The European Union published new guidelines on Wednesday for labeling products made in Israeli...
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Korea, 1st Sovereign Issuer of PRC 'Panda' Bonds

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 11/13/2015 11:37:00 AM
In East Asia, China and South Korea have generally gotten along better than either of them with Japan due to the latter's WWII-era imperialism. Nor does China have any major territorial dispute with South Korea--they only have minor tiffs over some rock. It should come as no surprise then that the Koreans are becoming financial innovators in a sense. You see, they will be the first sovereign issuers of yuan-denominated bonds in the mainland. Yes, of course there are already RMB bond issuances by offshore entities--the Asian Development Bank and the (World Bank's) International Finance Corporation come to mind. But issuance...
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Chinese-Canadian Miss World, Falun Gong & PRC Persecution

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 11/11/2015 02:44:00 PM
"Dem commies are evil!" Miss World - Canada Anastasia Lin with Chris Smith [R-NJ]. The Chinese Communist Party has long since banned the Falun Gong--which initially started as a movement doing stretching exercises but then committed the mortal sin of moving into politics--from the mainland. Outside China, the Falun Gong [AKA Falun Dafa] has outposts nearly everywhere you'll find the Chinese diaspora as well as an active press service, The Epoch Times, which is perhaps the most stridently anti-Communist Party media outlet there is. Like any other potential "threat" to single-party rule, most notably Catholicism, the nominally...
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