Economic Battle Royale: George Soros vs PRC

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/27/2016 01:30:00 AM
Mahathir and Soros eventually reconciled, but will Chinese authorities be so forgiving? This could be a battle for the ages if it comes true: During the Asian financial crisis, then-Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed famously singled out George Soros as a villain in depressing any number of Asian economies to make a quick buck through currency speculation. Aside from calling Soros a "moron," Mahathir launched all sorts of tirades against the famous financial figure, prompting a heated exchange of words: "I know I am taking a big risk to suggest it, but I am saying that currency trading is unnecessary, unproductive...
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New Venezuelan FinMin: Inflation Doesn't Exist

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 1/26/2016 01:30:00 AM
Guerra economica and ever after. The late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was once described as a "Narcissist-Leninist" by a number of economic commentators. As we've subsequently learned, self-ingratiating policies for the alleged benefit of the global workingman worked a lot better when oil was at $100/barrel instead of less than a third of that. In the latter situation which Chavez's successors find themselves, the scope for the Venezuelans spreading their largesse from oil revenues is greatly diminished since, well, the country is now faced with empty coffers selling the stuff at below cost for months on end. Enter...
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Will the Paris-Dakar Rally Ever Return to Africa?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 1/24/2016 06:45:00 PM
What's the 'Paris-Dakar Rally' doing in Bolivia, of all places? Ask winner Toby Price (AUS). It may strike you as false advertising, but the world-famous test of endurance known as the Paris-Dakar rally or just the Dakar rally has not been held on the African continent since 2009. This cross-continental motorsports event across inhospitable terrain used to be between Paris and Dakar, Senegal at various times since its 1979 inception. The Sahara desert was the proving ground for one of the ultimate tests of man and machine. However, since 2009, it has been held in South America due to security concerns on the African continent: The...
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Hallelujah for Markets...from Vatican Finance Chief

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 1/21/2016 04:53:00 PM
The cardinal for capitalism, George Pell (de facto Vatican finance minister). In the past I've covered "liberation theology"--the application of Marxist ideology to Christianity--and the controversies within the Catholic Church regarding it. During the time of Pope Benedict XVI, the arch-conservative who was in his previous guise Cardinal Ratzinger denounced the possibility of literally godless Marxist ideology co-existing with Christian doctrine. With the Jesuit Pope Francis though coming from Latin America--home of liberation theology--the preferential option for the poor is coming also back into focus. The main reason,...
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Prospects for Iran as the Next Investor's Darling

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 1/17/2016 05:10:00 PM
Capital goes to where profits are to be made. Is this place one of them for foreign investors? Even in these rather blah economic times, there lie opportunities...for those brave enough to take them on, I suppose. With the rest of the world economy becoming rather stagnant, where is the smart money supposed to go? How about a country with a population of 77 million that has been locked out of the international community for years on end due to sanctions? With normalized economic relations set to resume this week (with the major exception of the United States), Iran looks like the destination country of choice for any number...
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As China is Shunned, Starbucks, UBS Expand There

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/12/2016 05:06:00 PM
Starbucks still bets its future on China--and so do many other MNCs, so what gives? There is a tendency nowadays to sell everything China-related: companies in the PRC, companies that export a lot to the PRC, countries headquartered near the PRC (read: the Asia-Pacific) and so on and so forth. Call it financial guilt by association--if it has even a whiff of China, sell it. So, it must come as a surprise that, actually, there are Western multinational corporations that are not only bullish on China, but plan to expand their operations greatly there in the very near future. That they represent a range of industries is also...
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April Fool's or Biggest IPO Ever? Floating Saudi Aramco

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/11/2016 12:30:00 AM
Of all the darndest things I've heard during the start of the year when there was no lack of them, the idea of Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco listing its shares takes the cake. Certainly the timing is bad given that oil prices have dropped precipitously. Hovering around $100-something in mid 2014, the price of a barrel has fallen to about a third of that. Still, desperate times may call for desperate measures. To help close a yawning fiscal deficit, Saudi Arabia may resort to an IPO despite naysayers thinking this is some kind of prank: When one financial adviser heard about Saudi Arabia’s plans to list a company...
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Saudi v Iran: When Mideast Unrest *Clobbers* Oil Prices

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/08/2016 02:19:00 PM
"So what?" looks like this: oil price momentarily spiked after Saudi v Iran commenced, then resumed (downward) course. We've gotten used to the idea that unrest in the Middle East results in a spike in oil prices worldwide. But, that may no longer be the case given current events. A few days ago, Saudi Arabia and Iran had a conflict culminating in the former severing diplomatic ties with the latter after the Saudis executed Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr and protests against the Saudi embassy in Tehran followed. Whether it's Saudi Arabia deliberately showing "who's boss" in the region after the US has become less bellicose...
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Note: In China, Green Means a Falling Stock

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/07/2016 11:13:00 AM
Those stocks are green in the PRC...because they're falling. The third column shows changes on the day. These past few days have been rough for global stock markets, but especially so in mainland China. Twice in four trading days, the Shanghai stock exchange has closed automatically after breaching the 7% daily trading limit on the down side. You keep seeing pictures like the one above of investors stupefied by boards showing stocks nearly all in green, and you may think "But aren't stocks going up across the board?" Actually, if you look at the figures, the stocks in green are down in China. Red is an auspicious color...
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Surprise!? Egyptian Telecom Expropriated in North Korea

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/05/2016 03:41:00 PM
The way we were: Orascom's Naguib Sawiris [c] with the late Kim Jong-il [r]. A corollary to "fortune favors the brave" is "misfortune favors the foolhardy." Yes, there are cell phones in North Korea--it's just that you cannot call abroad or access the Internet through them. I had been peripherally aware of Orascom, the Egyptian telecommunications provider, through its advertisements on CNN. I was reminded of it in a powerful way when I read a recent Wall Street Journal article discussing how Orascom got expropriated (excommunicated?) by North Korea. Of course, my initial reaction was "Why of course! What were you thinking...
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Argentina, Brazil, S Africa: Who Gets IMF Help in 2016?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 1/04/2016 10:09:00 AM
Can new Argentine President Mauricio Macri turn things around? His is not the only financially troubled G20 country. Four days in, I am not seeing major improvements in 2016 for commodity exporters, although I could (and hope to) be wrong for the rest of the year. Whatever the rest of us think hasn't stopped longtime FT commentator Martin Wolf from placing odds on those three countries as potential borrowers from the world's lender of last resort, the IMF, this year. The prospect is certainly not one any of these countries looks forward to, but don't be surprised if one does go the poorhouse in 2016: The G20 also contains...
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Great Escape: How To Smuggle Cash Outta China

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 1/01/2016 12:17:00 PM
Would Papa Smurf approve of PRC cash smurfing? Here's wishing one and all a Happy New Year! Just as 2015 ended, 2016 begins with questions for the world economy that hinge on the fate of China. By now everyone knows that commodity exporters--coal, oil, steel, you name it--have suffered as the so-called commodity supercycle led by Chinese demand has dissipated. Another side effect of China's economic slowdown has been a steady and massive exodus of cash that wants to exit the PRC. Any way out, it goes, baby! Whereas  expectations during years of high growth were that the yuan would appreciate because of higher interest...
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