Posts of 2018

Trump’s Inner Conflict: Tariff Man v Dow Man

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Trade at 12/25/2018 04:58:00 PM

Donny Demented must decide between Tariff Man and Dow Man since he likely can't be both. Unlike any other (normal) American President, Trump continually boasted about rising stock markets earlier in his term. But, as with all things in a gravity-prone world, what goes up must come down. This danger all his predecessors innately understood, but Trump is...different. Interestingly, this tendency to brag about stock market performance--call him Dow Man after the world's most famous stock index (the Dow Jones Industrial Average--is at odds with his other persona. Yep, we're talking about his self-declared "Tariff Man," happy...

...There are Still Foreign Students in the US?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Education,Migration at 12/22/2018 06:50:00 PM

There's an interesting article over at Politico about how Trump's nativist / white supremacist / neo-apartheidist rhetoric and policies have impacted not only illegal but, perhaps more importantly, legal migration. While all of it is certainly worth reading, let's focus on something I've been quite curious about: international students going to the United States to learn. After all, why would you want to go and give money to a country whose leader disparages you for your race, color, creed or "foreignness"? Trump whipping up anti-immigrant fervor against Muslims, Latinos and anyone who isn't a white Trump voter isn't going...

Huawei to Hell: Globally Restricting PRC Tech

♠ Posted by Emmanuel at 12/19/2018 05:16:00 PM

Wrongly or rightly, Huawei is now perceived as an extension of the People's Republic of China. More specifically, the Communist leadership is thought of as directing its commercial activities in pursuit of national objectives. To be sure, this prospect was always the likely one given that its founder is a former People's Liberation Army officer who has not exactly distanced himself from his former employer. In the wake of his daughter, Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, being detained in Canada on charges that Huawei violated American sanctions on Iran, many other countries have raised security concerns over using Huawei equipment...

Fears of US Treating Hong Kong as ‘China’

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,China,Security,Trade at 12/16/2018 04:50:00 PM

What makes Hong Kong still a global business hub may be under threat from Donald Trump. With many Chinese cities having become nearly as developmentally advanced as Hong Kong, the question has always been what comparative advantage this "Special Administrative Region" still has. It used to be the gateway to the mainland, until mainland cities could pretty much do anything for foreigners what Hong Kong could. To cut a long story short, the "one country, two systems" idea has another differentiation that has continued Hong Kong's economic relevance. You see, Hong Kong is regarded as a different entity from the PRC proper...

Small Island States & Climate Survival

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Development,Environment at 12/14/2018 12:21:00 PM

Trying not to go underwater: Kiribati and company. You sometimes have difficulty finding "good guys" at year-end UN climate negotiations. On one hand you have rich countries unwilling to cut emissions despite already being wealthy like the United States. They are largely indifferent to worsening the plight of poor countries which must bear the brunt of climate change, like those in sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, you also have developing countries that do not want to sacrifice anything to economic growth despite having among the world's most polluted cities on the face of the Earth. I'm talking about you, China and...

On PRC Retaliation for Detained Huawei Exec

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Technology,Trade at 12/10/2018 05:23:00 PM

"Free Meng Wangzhou" is the new PRC (technology) battle cry. In case you missed, it, Canadian authorities have detained Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou due to American pressure over that Chinese company dealing with Iran in violation of US sanctions. She is due for extradition to the United States. This major diplomatic dust-up comes on top of massive uncertainty over the fate of world trade as the United States slaps China silly with tariffs. Whereas the tariffs deal with supposedly unfair Chinese trade practices, these efforts to cut Chinese technology firms down to size are part of an effort to slow China's technological...

Warmer Planet: India Adopts Air-Conditioning

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Environment,India at 12/07/2018 04:24:00 PM

Like many others, I am of two minds about this phenomenon. As with practically everywhere else on Earth, India is warming. Most of the country was already warm to begin with, but with climate change, it's only getting warmer. What's more, economic development in that country has made it more possible for more folks to afford relatively costly air-conditioning units and the electricity bills associated with them. A downside to all this comfort, however, is obviously further demand for power: With India's AC market expected to explode from 30 million to a billion units by 2050, the world's second-most populous country...

China Aside, Trump's Many Other Trade Wars

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Trade at 12/04/2018 02:33:00 PM

China may be the main "belligerent" identified by the US, but it's hardly the only one. Trump and the Chinese government not being particularly known for their communicative openness and transparency, there is some confusion as to whether the US-China trade war is about to de-escalate or otherwise after Trump-Xi talks at the recently concluded G-20 meeting in Argentina. What's going to happen with regard to these two countries? Beats me, pal. Lest you think that China is the only victim of Trump's anti-trade mentality, rest assured that the rest of the world has been subject to aggressive action from the US government...

Trump to Foreign Students: “Get Lost”

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,Education at 11/26/2018 03:19:00 PM

AMERICA FIRST = COLOREDS OUT in plain English...and that includes foreign students. It should be of no particular surprise that the United States is becoming an increasingly unattractive place for foreign students to study in. On the financial side, a strong US dollar is making other Anglophone countries comparatively attractive like Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. I've always been bemused by Brexit plunging the British pound to recent depths and in the process benefiting UK educational institutions. On the security side, the mountebank President Trump's barely-concealed hatred for all things foreign--and foreigners...

The Great PRC Bum Rush to Beat Trump's Tariffs

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Trade at 11/12/2018 03:51:00 PM

"In the Red[s] corner, the heavyweight exporting champion of the world..." The veritable explosion of exports from the PRC to the United States is definitely related to the Trump administration's tariff-slapping ways. At the moment, the Yanks have applied 10% tariffs to $250B worth of China-made goods. At the start of 2019, if matters do not change substantively, these rates are scheduled to be raised to 25%. Having established supply chains deep in the PRC, what's an American importer to do? So far at least, may have decided to front-load imports while tariffs are still *only* 10%: China’s imports into the U.S. hit a...

Depopulation R Us: Ending US Birthright Citizenship

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,Migration at 10/30/2018 03:22:00 PM

Maybe the white supremacist xenophobe Trump will soon ban multicultural baby dolls, too. Hey, perhaps Trump is an IPE Zone reader, of all things possible in this strange world. Just yesterday, I discussed how Canada's "human stimulus" is allowing that country to keep up with rising interest rates Stateside as growth is being fueled in Canada by an influx of work-ready migrants. Apparently not content with keeping coloreds out in attempting to Make America White Again, Trump has a new plan to avoid citizenship privileges for those born in it. As a new anti-immigration gimmick, Trump is signaling that he want to issue an...

Canada's 'Human Stimulus': Inward Migration

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Migration at 10/29/2018 05:38:00 PM

Don't want to be treated like #$%^ because you aren't a white male 'Christian'? Then go to Canada, not Trump's America. Bloomberg has an interesting report about how Canada is taking the opposite tack to what the United States is doing under Donald Trump. The current US president knows what got him elected: spewing barely-concealed hatred against everyone except white so-called 'Christian' males like him. You name it: women, people of color, people of different faiths, people of different sexual orientations have been singled out for Making America Worse Right Now compared to some fantastical golden age when white 'Christian'...

Trade War Worries? Leave China for Southeast Asia

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Southeast Asia at 10/22/2018 06:24:00 PM

"Made in China" gives way to "Made in Southeast Asia"? The "balloon effect" is a demonstration of the phenomenon of displacement. Say you push down on manufactured exports emanating from China. Because demand for these goods still exists Stateside and in other destinations, other parts will inflate with the targeted activity. And so it is with American efforts to punish Chinese transgressors over supposedly unfair trade. Instead of these trades stopping altogether--or production moving back Stateside as Trump fantasizes--the end result is production moving to even lower-cost destinations elsewhere in Asia. Among the beneficiaries...

California Apart, the US Economy is Pretty Blah

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,Technology at 10/17/2018 06:10:00 PM

I was watching Bloomberg TV when they brought on one of their journalists to expound on the condition of the American economy. If you were to listen to Trump, the reason why the United States economy is doing better is because of ridding of all sorts of regulations, permitting unlimited pollution, detaching from the rest of the world via trade wars, deporting en masse people willing to work, embracing Stone Age technologies like coal, etc. That is, making America great again is a distinctly backward-looking activity from Trump's point of view. Actually, the fact of the matter is this: If you separate supremely performing,...

World Trade War: Good for the Enviroment?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Trade at 10/08/2018 06:27:00 PM

Is Trump's trade war going to save the Earth? It depends... It's generally recognized that carbon emissions dropped off during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, making tanking the world economy "good for the environment." With some predicting even direr outcomes than the aftermath of the "beggar-thy-neighbor" 1930s as the United States has commenced slapping tariffs on its trade partners, who are retaliating in return, there is no telling how much worse things can get if this back-and-forth process continues unabated. Who knows? The end result could be a reduction in global economic activity even greater in percentage...

Sinopec's Shame is Caving In to Trump on Iran

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Energy,Middle East at 10/03/2018 08:36:00 PM

Hey Sinopec, maybe your new slogan should be "Trump Threatens, Cower in Fear." I almost forgot about this one: Sometime ago, I lauded China for stating that it would not stop buying crude oil from Iran despite the Trump administration's re-imposition of sanctions. These come despite Iran living up to its commitments under the Obama-era agreement JCPOA (which Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of). Apparently, I had spoken too soon. Fast-forward a couple of months and, lo and behold, China's state-owned energy giant Sinopec has cut back on its Iran purchases by half ahead of a forthcoming tightening of American...

Trump's Plan to Supersize US Trade Deficit, Pt. II

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,Trade at 9/27/2018 05:51:00 PM

Up, up and away: the incredible exploding US trade deficit. Contrary to his rhetoric, I noted some posts ago that Trump is actually doing all he can to widen the US trade deficit. The last GDP report for the second quarter for 2018 was artificially boosted by Americans trying to beat the imposition of tariffs on goods imported by China. However, we have passed that point. Now that tariffs are already beginning to be imposed, American importers no longer have the impetus to "beat" some tariff imposition deadline. Voila, today's trade deficit that was far larger than anticipated $-75.8B instead of $-70.8B--though humbly not...

Trade War Winner: PRC Leather Goods Counterfeiters

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Marketing,Trade at 9/20/2018 03:51:00 PM

Trump [hearts] fakeries: of trade war and the rising attractiveness of counterfeits. The folks over at the South China Morning Post have a long list of established and recognized Asian companies either benefiting or losing out from the escalating US-China trade war. However, it's not just these big names who we should consider when it comes to regional winners and losers from Trump's trade machinations. The Washington Post notes that, actually, PRC counterfeiters may stand to benefit from the ongoing tiff. How might this be so? Those trading in legitimate leather goods will invariably register with US customs authorities...

Yakety-Yak: Mnunchin the Useless Trade Negotiatior

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Trade at 9/14/2018 04:41:00 PM

He only acts like the money man when he's actually very impotent in talking with the Chinese about trade wars. Imagine having a boss who contradicts nearly everything you do that's of importance. Apparently, that's what's happening with White House senior officials in the Trump administration. Just when they think they've got a handle on things, their boss then contradicts them, setting back whatever they've been working on by days, weeks or months. In this vein, have some sympathy for one Steven Mnuchin. Supposedly the Treasury secretary, whatever that person does (if anything) in the age of Trump, he's been thwarted...

Get Out! Malaysia's Mahathir Spurns PRC Infrastructure

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Development,Southeast Asia at 9/03/2018 04:58:00 PM

Behold, Mahathir's "hit list" of PRC-supported Malaysian infrastructure projects. A standard narrative you'll hear in developing countries is that China butters up their leaders by offering infrastructure development projects. These projects are usually funded by the Chinese extending loans without much regard for Westerner's usual concerns about good governance, human rights, or the rest of that white man's phooey. Well, perhaps that's the story in most instances. Consider the nonagenarian Mahathir Mohamed regaining power in Malaysia. Politically speaking, he has every incentive in the world to disown the China-sourced...

Trump's Plan to Balloon the US Trade Deficit

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Americana,Trade at 8/29/2018 05:03:00 PM

Inside Trump's plan to blow up [and not send down] the US trade deficit to kingdom come. Trump claims that his various trade wars--against Europe, Asia, North America, and pretty much everybody else--are intended to bring down the US trade deficit. While it's true that the US trade deficit is large, many have argued that it's not really the result of unfair trading practices of the United States' trade partners but rather the Americans' woeful lack of savings. At any rate, despite all Trump's huffing and puffing, the United States' trade deficit for July exploded upwards: The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the goods...