Gini Index, the Band

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 3/17/2007 12:14:00 AM

While preparing the post on global inequality, I was astonished to find a Yahoo search result from YouTube. Yes, it turns out that there is a band called Gini Index. Like the guy who came up with the index, Corrado Gini, they too are Italian. Listen to a live recording of their song "Structures." I hope that its lyrics are profound since I haven't got the slightest clue what they're singing about. There are more downloadable song samples on their MySpace page. Talk about finding something new each day...

What's the World's Busiest Port?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 3/16/2007 04:33:00 AM
Marc Levinson's The Box provides a vivid illustration of how the prosaic shipping container revolutionized global trade. Prior to the standardization of the container, Levinson writes that "transporting goods was expensive--so expensive that it did not pay to ship things halfway across the country, much less halfway around the world." Afterwards, though, the volume of global trade increased markedly: "The value of this utilitarian object lies not in what it is, but in how it is used. The container is at the core of a highly automated system for moving goods from anywhere, to anywhere, with a minimum of cost and complication along the way." In economist-speak, the standardization of the container did much to reduce transaction costs for schlepping goods around the world.

While trucks and trains are the primary modes of land-based transportation for containers, shipping remains the long-distance transportation mode of choice. As such, having highly active container ports gives countries economic bragging rights. The task of determining which is the world's busiest port is complicated because three measures of activity may be used:
  • Shipping Tonnage: How many cargo ships are handled at a port?
  • Cargo Tonnage: What is the total weight of goods that are loaded and discharged at a port?
  • Container Throughput: How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) go through a port? (For example, a forty-foot container would count as 2 TEUs.)

Unsurprisingly, most of the world's busiest ports are in Asia as the table above depicts, though it is somewhat dated. Hong Kong and Singapore have been duking it out for the title of world's top port for some time now. In the recent past, Singapore held the lead in cargo tonnage, while Hong Kong held the lead in container throughput. However, Singapore surpassed Hong Kong in terms of both measures in 2005 and 2006 according to their port authorities' statistics. Even so, Shanghai claims its port exceeded Singapore's in terms of cargo tonnage in 2005 (443M tons to 423M) and 2006 (a whopping 537M tons to 449M). Singapore still leads Shanghai in terms of container throughput, though, with 23.2M TEUs to 18.1M in 2005 and 24.8M TEUs to 21.7M in 2006.

Regardless of which port leads overall, there are some key implications here. China's export growth has benefited from the attention paid to developing a transportation infrastructure for exports. Three out of five of the world's busiest ports in terms of container throughput are in China. Getting goods from special economic zones (SEZs) unto cargo ships has received undoubted attention. Should India wish to follow in China's footsteps, it will have to make improvements to its decrepit infrastructure. Standardizing the shipping container enabled inexpensive shipping the world over; these massive container ports are proof of this ingenuity.

[UPDATE: I have taken a look at the 2007 figures in a more recent post.]

Sell Ford and GM to the Chinese

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 3/15/2007 12:25:00 AM
Here is a solution to many of the challenges facing the US and China that no one talks about: sell Ford and GM to the Chinese. We know that Ford and GM are in dire straits, having lost a humongous $12.7B and $2B respectively in 2006. Despite recording a profit in Q4 2006, GM suffers from subprime housing collateral damage via its ex-lending arm, GMAC. Both their credit ratings have been reduced to junk status. While GM may not be hemorrhaging cash as quickly as Ford, it too faces colossal pension obligations to the tune of some $47B. The writing on the wall seems clear, at least to me: unless these venerable businesses obtain government support, they will soon go the way of Hudson, Packard, and Studebaker.

On the other hand, we have the Chinese. The Chinese government has recently decided to invest its massive reserve pile into something that yields better than the likes of American sovereign debt. The current business trend in China appears to be buying up distressed companies that have recognized brands. At the same time, Chinese car manufacturers are keen on developing cars for the export market. Ford and GM offer an extensive dealer network in America and familiar brands. Voila! A match made in heaven, or at least purgatory in the immediate vicinty of the pearly gates. As bad as Ford and GM's marketing may be at times, it surely can't be as bad as that for the "Geely Beauty Leopard":
It is an urban sport car. Its pure ardor appears before you boldly. With perfect and smooth lines, it looks wild and sexy. The decorating tail wing and the integrated crystal headlamp, all match your enthusiasm and ardor. Dancing and exciting air contains your romantic disposition, your wisdom and your elegance...
Now, it may be a measure of how far these once-mighty companies have fallen, but Ford's market capitalization last I checked was a mere $14.2B while that of GM was $17.1B. Their cash balances alone are greater than their market caps. They are dirt cheap. Let me put it this way: Google has a market capitalization of $139.3B--over eight times more than GM's. True, potential Chinese buyers will probably demand that some of these companies' onerous future obligations are not taken on board. As they are now, these firms are nearly more like health care and pension providers than automakers. Some deal will need to be made to reduce these obligations by a good amount. Of course, there will be be a huge political brouhaha Stateside if the Chinese attempt to buy Ford and GM. For that reason, no such deal is likely. If the likes of Global Crossing and Unocal were considered "strategic" interests that were hands-off to these folks, what more Ford and GM? If you think it through, however, selling these marques to the Chinese makes near-perfect sense. Better to have Chinese-American carmakers than defunct carmakers, methinks. American auto manufacturing's last stand is at hand.

Bananas of Terror; Blood Bananas

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 3/14/2007 10:47:00 PM
The Chiquita Banana Company (CQB) has an exceedingly controversial history. It is rare that Halliburton's misadventures pale in comparison with another firm's when it comes to corporate social responsibility (CSR), but Chiquita is on another level altogether. Perhaps its troubles stem from operating in Latin America where brutal dictatorships are rife (hence the term "banana republic"). Chiquita is the corporate name of the former United Fruit Company, at whose behest it is widely believed that the CIA was enlisted to overthrow left-leaning Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbenz in 1954. An entire website is dedicated to the travails of the United Fruit Company in Latin America, including the Arbenz episode:

[Guatemalan coup leader Carlos] Castillo received a strong financial and logistic support from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to prepare his Army in Honduran territory to attack Guatemala. The CIA's involvement had been approved by Eisenhower as a way to stop what they considered a spread of Communism in the Americas. CIA's director was Allen Dulles, brother of the American Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles. In June, 1954 the troops of Carlos Castillo crossed the Honduran-Guatemalan border and began their attack against the Arbenz government.

The United Fruit Co. changed its name in 1984 to Chiquita, presumably to dissociate itself with its controversial history. Yet, Chiquita has hardly turned the page. It was a key figure in the infamous banana wars at the WTO.

Just today, Chiquita has been convicted of paying $1.7M worth of protection money between 1997 and 2004 to the right-wing United Self-Defense Forces (AUC) paramilitary organization. Prosecutors claim that Chiquita also paid off the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas which too engage in the illegal drug trade that figures prominently in banana-growing regions. While the rest of us would call the AUC a guerrilla movement, the US has classified it as a "terrorist" organization--just like almost every other insurgent or revolutionary group outside the US (call it a marketing ploy for the "war on terror.") The company has set aside $25M to cover potential damages arising from this case. What more is there to say? Old habits die hard.

March 16 Update: Despite having sold its wholly-owned Banadex Colombian subsidiary in 2004 for $43.5M, Chiquita stands accused of ferrying weapons to paramilitaries by the Colombian prosecutor's office. The prosecutor seeks extradition of Chiquita executives -
The chief federal prosecutor's office said it would ask the U.S. Justice Department for information on Chiquita's role concerning a report that a Banadex ship was allegedly used to unload 3,000 rifles and more than 2.5 million bullets in November 2001 for use by Colombia's paramilitaries. The shipment was revealed in a 2003 report by the Organization of American States.

Demystifying Neoliberalism

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 3/14/2007 12:33:00 AM
David Brooks' recent column in the New York Times has set off a controversy in the blogosphere over whether, indeed, neoliberalism is "dead." It appears to me that much of the confusion arises because neoliberalism is defined in various ways. In particular, the rest of the world seems to understand the term differently from how it used in America. In this post, I will offer an explanation that may clarify the matter. To be sure, not everyone will agree with me, but I'd like to chip in my two cents' worth as it may help others grasp the term better.

Like many other things political, neoliberalism is a contested term. Our friends Stateside associate neoliberalism with Clinton's market-friendly policies involving marketization, privatization, and deregulation. In other words, these are elements of John Williamson's (in)famous "Washington Consensus." Such policies are often classified under "Rubinomics" after the former US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. My argument though is that while neoliberal policies may have entered the limelight during the Clinton years, it is incorrect to associate the term with leaning left on the political spectrum. Rather, the "liberal" part of the term stems from being an economic liberal (favoring lower taxation rates, fiscal prudence, free trade, etc.) rather than being a political liberal. The"new" part comes from neoliberalism being a modernized take on the liberal principles first set forth by the likes of Adam Smith and David Ricardo. Furthermore, you can think of "neoliberalism" as the project promoting "neoclassical" economics as articulated by the likes of the late Milton Friedman and others from the Chicago School.

This definition enables a better differentiation between neoliberalism and neoconservatism as well. If neoliberalism concerns being an economic liberal, then neoconservatism concerns being a political conservative--among other things, favoring traditional values and the deployment of a muscular foreign policy. As such, you can be an economic neoliberal and a political neoconservative at the same time. A case in point is President Bush. USA Today recently ran into the same trap of identifying neoliberalism with leaning left on the political spectrum as he visited Latin America:
Only in Latin America could President Bush be accused of being a neo-liberal.

"Neo-liberalism" is one of the names given to the free trade, market-oriented economic approach Bush is promoting throughout Latin America. It's a flashpoint for Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and other U.S. critics who say free trade has only increased regional poverty.

Bush spent part of Saturday discussing trade with Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez, seeking to "spread the benefits of investment" in both nations. The day before, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Bush said open markets help promote initiatives to improve areas such as health care and education.

"The most effective anti-poverty program is trade," Bush said in Brazil.

The rest of the world regards neoliberalism in the terms I've just described--it concerns the propagation of economics favoring free-market principles instead of being a political liberal or conservative. Therefore, as we understand it, Bush is indeed neoliberal when he promotes the gospel of free trade, market access, foreign investment, and the rest. Yet, at the same time, he is also a neoconservative as he favors active projection of US military might to further American interests--but that is a story best saved for another post. Suffice to say, with the leader of the world's most powerful nation actively promoting neoliberalism, it cannot be called dead. While its popularity may be fading, it is by no means a goner.

If You Can't Build Brands, Buy 'Em

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 3/13/2007 12:54:00 AM
We have all seen the scare stories about China's not-so-peaceful rise--especially the ones that deal with how its economic might will soon overwhelm the rest of the world. However, a striking thing about China's rise is its unmistakable lack of distinctive homegrown brands. Sure, technology buffs may know about the likes of Huawei (routers), Haier (appliances), TCL (television sets), and Lenovo (personal computers), but to Joe Average, these brands are largely unknown. Unlike the Japanese or the South Koreans (Samsung, Hyundai, LG and so on), the Chinese have so far been unable to develop their own brands for foreign markets. True, China is still relatively new to the export branding game--hard as it is to believe--but one would think that it should have a handful of brand names with international recognition by now. As it is, China Inc. is a largely faceless enterprise to the rest of the world.

Haier, unbeknownst to me until a few moments ago, turns out to be a sponsor of the NBA. Still, who else is aware of this? The International Herald Tribune suggests that China may be adopting an alternative "stealth" strategy to this problem of name recognition by buying up foreign companies in distress with recognizable brands. It makes a lot of sense, especially now that China has decided to put more of its $1 trillion reserve hoard into play, partly to silence criticism that it has placed too much of its investments in relatively low-yielding assets such as US Treasuries:
It began in 2002 when TCL, a Chinese maker of televisions and mobile phones, bought the German company Schneider Electronics. The Chinese computer maker Lenovo acquired IBM's personal computer business in 2004.

Qianjiang Group, the largest Chinese motorcycle manufacturer, now owns Benelli, the oldest motorcycle maker in Italy. Shenyang Machine Tool Group has bought Schiess, a longtime maker of German machine tools. Xinjiang Chalkis even owns a French tomato cannery and sells Chinese tomato sauce in Provence.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), which until recently has been solely tasked to oversee this hoard, has become more liberal in giving foreign exchange to Chinese firms wishing to invest in foreign enterprises:
To encourage outbound investment. the Ministry of Commerce now accepts applications online and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has abolished quotas on the purchase of foreign exchange for such deals. These changes have led to a sharp increase in overseas deals all over the world.
To me, it is a good deal all around. The Chinese gain brands recognized in other parts of the globe while distressed Western brands gain a second chance and access to the potentially lucrative Chinese market. Marketers aim for the win-win; perhaps that's the case here.

Bo Xilai, Comedy Guy

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 3/12/2007 10:52:00 PM
Chinese Minister of Commerce Bo Xilai is your prototypical modern Chinese bureaucrat: well-educated, clean-cut, and inoffensive. You know, very much in the mold of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. You will rarely if ever hear them make controversial statements that attract undue attention to themselves. In his post, Bo Xilai has the thankless task of appeasing China's trade partners over the growing size of China's trade surplus. Reducing the surplus along with promoting equality, environmental concern, and domestic consumption have been stated policy goals ever since the eleventh five-year plan of the Communist Party in 2005. To much of the rest of the world's chagrin, however, China's exports keep chugging along at a rapid clip.

Earlier in the day, Bo Xilai set up the joke by telling journalists that "In the past few years we have taken a series of trade measures that are aimed at boosting imports and slowing the growth in exports." A few moments later, China delivered the punch line by releasing statistics indicating that it recorded its second-largest monthly trade surplus in February of $23.8B. February is usually a slower month for exports. Annualized, China's trade surplus would alone come to $285B. Nevertheless, Bo Xilai managed to make some digs at the US for what they're worth:

"The surplus was not formed only because of trade issues; it has developed due to the industrial structure and the overall situation with the global economy." This is a restatement of the classic Chinese line on global imbalances. America has no one to blame but itself for buying too much and selling too little stuff internationally;

"So we should not expect to see the resolution of the trade surplus problem in the short term, or only because of some trade measures." Ditto; it's a structural problem wrought by America.

"China has a big trade surplus but the profits are being made by [these multinational] companies." Meaning, why are you complaining? China doesn't really benefit as much as American firms taking advantage of inexpensive Chinese labor.

From my point of view, there are two possibilities here. Either the Party is really having trouble redirecting the Chinese economy in a more sustainable path because of China's sheer vastness (remember those independent-minded local governments), or it is saying one thing while doing another by clinging on to a model of export-led growth. As I have noted, America might not be able to take Bo Xilai at his word for much longer if things do not change. Unless tangible changes soon occur, I will have to lump Bo Xilai's famous words with some others':

Bill Clinton - "I did not have sex with that woman"
Rafael Palmiero - "I have never used steroids, period"
Bo Xilai - "We are working on slowing down exports" ;-)

Challenges of Affluence and Poverty

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 3/12/2007 02:26:00 AM
I recently took out two academic titles from the library that have gained a fair measure of attention. The first is economic historian Avner Offer's The Challenge of Affluence: Self-Control and Well-Being in the US and Britain Since 1950 and the second is David Ellerman's Helping People Help Themselves. On the surface, Offer's book covers the challenges of having too much, whereas Ellerman's book those of having too little. After reading both, though, there are many similarities in the approaches they take to their topics. Common to both are a focus on limits to human cognition in terms of bounded rationality. That is, cognitive limitations cause people to behave differently from the proverbial rational economic man. Hence, contextualizing these cognitive limitations in terms of "affluenza" and development may yield better results in terms of coping with the challenges of abundance and scarcity.

The Challenge of Affluence is another book in a seemingly endless literature stream dedicated to cataloging human fallibility and its effects on well-being. A recurring theme is that economic growth and prosperity by no means guarantee well-being, vide the "Easterlin paradox." Part I provides a good start by illustrating how
rising wealth in developed countries has not resulted in increasing happiness; rather, stagnation and even decline are pervasive. The neoliberal notion that choice is the sine qua non of human existence is critiqued by pointing out that choice is fallible (due to bounded rationality and imperfect knowledge). Hence, socialization is needed to ensure that better information flows among market participants to avoid this unwelcome eventuality. The "gift economy" where non-market exchanges occur such as among persons in households is then covered as an alternative. So far, so good.

I start having difficulties with this book in Part II. Here, the evils of marketing's "false sincerity" are blamed for everything ranging from obesity, overspending, unsightly billboards, SUVs, to disposable culture. Unfortunately, Offer does not cover much literature from consumer research which challenges the notion that consumers are hapless victims of ever-more sophisticated ad pitches. People can and do filter out a majority of marketing messages. And, they can discern underlying contradictions in marketing messages, such as advertising that features countercultural elements like sixties nostalgia while selling mainstream products. Offer portrays consumers as passive victims to a degree which I believe is unwarranted.

Offer gets somewhat back on track with Part III where he examines the social costs of modernity--rising incidences of divor
ce, sad childhoods, competition for status, diminishing mental health, growing inequality blamed on neoliberalism, etc. However, there is effectively no conclusion after this part. To be honest, the book presents many, many sources without digesting them fully. While I did pick up some additional useful references, most of what is presented should be quite familiar by now to those following critiques of neoliberalism or modernity. Had these sources been better integrated, a genuine conclusion could have been formed elaborating possible steps for mitigating such social ills. As it stands, I would recommend the likes of Jonathon Porritt's Capitalism as if the World Matters and Barry Schwartz's The Paradox of Choice as books that go past description by making some actionable suggestions.

David Ellerman--who was the speechwriter for Joseph Stiglitz during his tumultuous tenure as chief economist at the World Bank--presents his volume as a companion to Stiglitz's Globalization and Its Discontents. While Stiglitz critiqued (or better yet, slammed) the IMF, Ellerman purports to do the same for the World Bank. According to him, the World Bank would do better if it began with these perspectives:
  • First Do: Start from present institutions (and not "start from scratch")
  • Second Do: Seeing the world through the eyes of the client
  • First Don’t: Transformation cannot be externally imposed
  • Second Don’t: Avoid benevolence which tends to render others dependent and thus contradicts the professed aim of helping others
  • Third Do: Respect the autonomy of the doers

He then applies findings from the literature on learning in reference to the Bank's learning (or lack thereof):

  • Roadblock to Learning 1: Official views as dogma, with examples
  • Roadblock to Learning 2: Funded assumptions as dogma
  • Roadblock to Learning 3: “Social science” as dogma (economic truisms)
  • Roadblock to Learning 4: The rage to conclude
Finally, he covers the literature on organization theory and identifies the structural problems that the Bank faces in fostering worthwhile changes:
  • Structural Problem 1: Monopolistic power
  • Structural Problem 2: Affiliation with US policies and interests
  • Structural Problem 3: Money is not the key to development assistance
  • Structural Problem 4: Working through governments that are part of the problem
  • Structural Problem 5: Trying to control bad clients instead of exiting deleterious relationships
Along the way, Ellerman too covers a lot of literature from different fields like Offer does, but his approach is better digested as he is more able to make workable suggestions by book's end. There are bits of economics, organization theory, learning theory, political science, and sociology thrown in for good measure. In some respects, this book is similar to William Easterly's The White Man's Burden in suggesting that development solutions will most likely be found locally and not through massive, master-planned aid programs. The best that organizations like the World Bank can do is engage their clients from the standpoint of joint learning which encourages experimentation to find creative solutions to developmental roadblocks. For example, how can learning networks be formed that successfully transmit fruitful ideas to different parties? Overall, this book is a recommended read, though more examples of Ellerman's ideas in action could have made them more vivid. A condensed version of this book is available on Ellerman's website.

USA: Who Loves Ya, Baby?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 3/11/2007 04:19:00 AM
Kyoto/International Criminal Court/Iraq/Abu Ghraib/Guantanamo Bay/extraordinary rendition/Bush's reelection occurred sometime ago. Yet, the image of America is still slipping worldwide according to the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes. Why is this so? And, does it really matter? Pollsters may find opinion of America turning negative, but American companies still do good business abroad for American exports recently hit an all-time monthly high. The situation we have here may be akin to the difference between purchase intentions and actual purchasing behavior in marketing-speak. The rest of the rest of the world might profess disliking America's influence, but keeps on buying American products and imbibing American popular culture nonetheless. Suffice to say that I don't see any mass international boycott movement.

In his testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Dr. Steven Kull of the Program on International Policy Attitudes said
  • In 20 of the 26 countries polled, the most common view is that the US is having a mostly negative influence in the world;
  • It should be noted that this reaction cannot simply be dismissed as something necessarily engendered by a powerful and rich country. The numbers we are seeing today are the lowest numbers that have ever been recorded;
  • During the 1990s, views of the US were predominantly positive;
  • The US military presence in the Middle East is exceedingly unpopular in virtually all countries. On average 69 percent believe the US military presence there “provokes more conflict than it prevents” while just 16 percent see it as a stabilizing force;
Most important to me at least is this point
  • The good news is that there is an abundance of evidence that the unhappiness with the US is not a rejection of US values. People around the world say that the problems they have with the US concern its policies, not its values.
Translation: It is the US government and its foreign policy that get the thumbs down from the international community--especially its aggressive use of military force. Americans (and the stuff they sell probably) are alright, but the self-styled "Jorge Bush" and his compadres are not very popular worldwide. Just ask those Brazilian protesters.

Great Firewall of China Approved Site

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 3/10/2007 11:55:00 PM
Pardon me for this bit of silliness. I've just come across this site which claims to test whether the Golden Shield Project (GSP) is blocking your vile propaganda from polluting the minds of the Chinese people. Guess what? My site passes with flying colors. Then again, it has only been in existence for, what, three weeks. I will not list any of the offending words and topics that ring alarm bells for the 30,000 censors (count 'em!) working day and night to ensure the sanctity of China's information stream in the hope that I can keep kosher with them. You can read about that offensive dreck elsewhere. In fact, you can call me "Comrade Emmanuel." Ken Livingstone has nothing on my impeccable left-leaning street cred.

Google and Yahoo have famously been criticized for watering down their search technologies to remove offensive terms in order to operate in the presumably lucrative China market. It's a human rights violation! It's pure greed and unethical business practice besides! I am indifferent; as long as my humble journal gets through to the good people of Haining and Shangdong, my rational choice is to care less. I'd probably change my opinion if I too got censored. Right now though I will not succumb to GSP martyrdom as Wikipedia did. You can bet your bottom renminbi that I love my Chinese readership (yes, there are some who come by once in a while). To establish my socialist credentials, let me say for the record that Hu Jintao has great hair. And, Wen Jiabao is the very picture of a modern world leader with his concern for the environment. Those censors should be cheering for me right about now...