International Political Economy Zone

Eco-Terrorists Sentenced

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Environment at 5/25/2007 04:30:00 AM

Not all environmental movements are benign or well-meaning. Case in point: the Earth Liberation Front ("ELF"). Here is their manifesto:

Welcome to the struggle of all species to be free.

We are the burning rage of this dying planet. The war of greed ravages the earth and species die out every day. ELF works to speed up the collapse of industry, to scare the rich, and to undermine the foundations of the state. We embrace social and deep ecology as a practical resistance movement. We have to show the enemy that we are serious about defending what is sacred. Together we have teeth and claws to match our dreams. Our greatest weapons are imagination and the ability to strike when least expected.

Since 1992, a series of earth nights and halloween smashes has mushroomed around the world. 1000's of bulldozers, powerlines, computer systems, buildings and valuable equipment have been composted. Many ELF actions have been censored to prevent our bravery from inciting others to take action.

We take inspiration from the Luddites, Levellers, Diggers, the Autonome squatter movement, ALF, the Zapatistas, and the little people -- those mischievous elves of lore. Authorities can't see us because they don't believe in elves. We are practically invisible. We have no command structure, no spokespersons, no office, just many small groups working separately, seeking vulnerable targets and practicing our craft.

Many elves are moving to the Pacific Northwest and other sacred areas. Some elves will leave surprises as they go. Find your family! And let's dance as we make ruins of the corporate money system.

Form 'stormy night' action groups, encourage friends you trust. A tight community of love is a poweful force.

Recon -- check out targets that fit your plan and go over what you will do

Attack -- powerlines: cut supporting cables, unbolt towers, and base supports, saw wooden poles.

transformers: shoot out, bonfires, throw metal chains on top, or blow them up.
computers: smash, burn or flood buildings.
Please copy and improve for local use.

It seems that their activities have not escaped the FBI's attention. Like every other enemy of the state in "Capital G" Bush's America, they have been branded as "terrorists":

A radical environmentalist who admitted to setting fire to an SUV dealership, a tree farm and a police station was declared a terrorist yesterday and sentenced to 16 years in federal prison.
Stanislas Meyerhoff, 29, was the first of 10 admitted saboteurs -- members of a loose-knit extremist environmental group, the Earth Liberation Front -- who face sentencing in the coming weeks for a series of arsons committed across five western states over six years.
Since their arrests last year, members of the cell, who called themselves "the family," have all pleaded guilty to charges of arson and conspiracy. They have insisted, however, that they would fight at their sentencing hearings the "terrorist enhancement" procedures that could increase their prison terms and land them in supermax prisons.
The hearings are at the new center of an old storm about how to define someone a terrorist.
Radical environmental groups including the Earth Liberation Front and an associate network, the Animal Liberation Front, have been called by the FBI "the No. 1 domestic terrorism threat" in America. Their members include four of the bureau's 11 most wanted homegrown terrorists.
The groups and their supporters say that in more than 1,100 acts of arson and vandalism the members have never killed a single person, and the "terrorist" label is intended only as a scare tactic and means of augmenting the government's rolls of captured terrorists.
Federal agents arrested the 10 defendants last year in an action called Operation Backfire. At the time of their arrest, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales called the cell's $40 million dollar campaign of arson -- which targeted a horse slaughterhouse, SUV dealerships, a scientific research center, logging companies and a ski resort -- "a pattern of domestic terrorism activities."
Lawyers and activists defending the saboteurs insist that acts of arson and property damage have never been the stuff of terrorism indictments. They say the label is intended by the government to stir public outrage and increase the length of their client's prison terms.

Views on US-China Talks

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Trade at 5/25/2007 04:03:00 AM

(NOTE: Twice updated!) This post should be my last one on the Strategic Economic Dialogue until the next one comes around, although that event may not be a sure thing. As I suggested earlier, the US Congress expressed its dissatisfaction in a way that US Treasury Secretary Paulson did not to Vice-Premier Wu Yi and her entourage over currency manipulation. Here is the letter presented by the House Ways and Means Committee to her on the matter:

May 23, 2007
Her Excellency Wu Yi Vice Premier of The People`s Republic of China

Dear Madam Wu,
We welcome you and your delegation to the Capitol and appreciate your interest in discussing the important relationship between our nations.

We share your interest in engaging in a frank discussion of the issues that stand in the way of a closer relationship between our nations. Our constituents have raised serious concerns regarding China’s policies in a number of areas, ranging from human rights issues such as the crisis in Darfur, to issues of environmental degradation and global warming. Our nations must take every opportunity we have to work to resolve these critical issues, and we look forward to discussing these issues with you today and in the future. As Members of the Committee on Ways and Means, however, we will focus today on the concerns the Committee has on the trading relationship between our countries.

This Committee recognizes the importance and the current and potential benefits of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between our countries and of the rule-based trading system under the World Trade Organization. In our view, however, China has not honored some of the commitments it made when it acceded to the WTO.

The Committee has serious concerns about China’s massive and constant interventions in the currency markets. Those interventions keep the value of the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), artificially low – making exports from China relatively cheap and imports into China relatively expensive. While the International Monetary Fund and the U.S. Department of Treasury have urged China to address this issue for several years now, we have seen almost no meaningful progress to date. To the contrary, the Federal Reserve Chairman noted in December 2006 that the situation has likely worsened recently.

More generally, the Committee is increasingly concerned about trade-distorting subsidies in China. When it acceded to the WTO, China agreed to immediately eliminate its export subsidy programs. Unfortunately, China has failed to do so. A number of subsidies that are strictly prohibited under WTO rules persist – subsidies designed to distort trade by increasing exports or limiting imports into China. China also maintains a number of other subsidies that distort trade and harm U.S. businesses, workers, and farmers. Those subsidies need to be eliminated without further delay.

We also are particularly frustrated with China’s inability to enforce intellectual property rights in China. As you know, the piracy rates in China remain virtually the highest in the world, at 85 to 95 percent of [software?] sales. Not only has China failed to make meaningful progress in this area, China has been sharply critical of the decision by the United States to file a WTO case to address the issue, claiming that the case “will adversely affect bilateral economic and trade ties.”

Unfortunately, the list of trade issues between our nations appears to be growing. Americans are increasingly concerned that food and feed products from China fall short of international safety standards and could pose a health risk. Moreover, we regularly hear from constituents who believe that China has not provided the access to its market that it agreed to provide when it acceded to the WTO.

We hope China will take immediate steps to address these issues and that our exchange of views today will be the beginning of an ongoing dialogue, a dialogue that will contribute to a mutually advantageous economic and trade relationship between our nations.

Sincerely,

Chairman Charles Rangel (D-NY)
Ranking Member Jim McCrery (R-LA)

In contrast, the Chinese state media applied a positive spin to the Dialogue:

China and the United States yesterday signed a slew of agreements at the conclusion of two days of high-level economic talks, which Vice-Premier Wu Yi described as "a complete success".
"We have reached broad consensus and realized positive results," Wu, who led the Chinese delegation to the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED), told reporters.
The two countries agreed on a wide variety of next steps to be taken in such areas as financial services, energy and the environment, trade balance, civil aviation and innovation.

As part of the opening up of the financial sector, the quota for qualified foreign institutional investors will be tripled from $10 billion to $30 billion.

On the aviation front, daily passenger flights between the United States and China will more than double by 2012; and air cargo companies will have virtually unlimited access to China. "Piece by piece, we are making it easier, cheaper, and more convenient to fly people and ship goods between our two countries," US Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters said.

Under the pact, US carriers will be able to operate 23 daily round trip flights by 2012, up from 10 now...

[US Treasury Secretary Paulson said] "We agree that by combining the power of our economies, we can spur further development of clean energy technology."

According to a briefing by the US Environment Protection Agency on Tuesday, the two sides discussed four areas for environmental collaboration, including developing up to 15 large-scale coal-mine methane capture and utilization projects in China over the next five years and pushing ahead with the development of a low sulfur fuel policy for China.

As you probably have gathered, the Chinese version of this "complete success" made no mention of yuan revaluation. After Congress gets to work on a bipartisan, veto-proof, WTO-compliant bill against China on the matter of yuan undervaluation, I doubt whether Vice-Premier Wu will feel the same way. It's pretty much in the cards. Here is Senator Max Baucus (D-Montana):

A senior U.S. senator said on Thursday he still planned to introduce legislation aimed at prodding China to revalue its currency after what he said were "very good" talks this week with senior Chinese officials.
"They were quite forthcoming, actually," Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, told reporters after meeting with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Wu Yi. "They gave their usual statements on currency ... but you could tell from the tone of their voice that they certainly recognize the concern in America."

Baucus said he would continue to work with other senators on a China trade bill, but added lawmakers were still sorting through their options. "Whatever our bill is -- we don't know yet -- it will certainly be WTO consistent," he said.

Baucus also praised U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's efforts to move China to revalue its currency.

"I think he's doing a good job. I think he's doing about as well as almost anyone could do," Baucus said.

You can be pretty sure that this statement of Wu's did not go down well with China-bashers Stateside. In Baucus's words, they were "their usual statements on currency":

The floating band of the renminbi exchange rate will continue to expand as the market changes in the future, Wu Yi said.

"China's exchange rate reform will be advanced in an orderly way, based on the principles of self-initiative, controllability and gradualism," Wu told a group of US business leaders in Washington on Thursday.

"The flexibility of the yuan's exchange rate will be continuously increased through the reform, while being maintained at a basically stable, reasonable level," she said.

She added that a large appreciation could be harmful to China's economy and that exchange rates were not the main cause of the huge US trade deficit with China.

Worse yet, it seems that there were some gaffes in her reception by Congress according to the Washington Wire:

A series of minor missteps marred a visit by top Chinese leaders to Capitol Hill Wednesday as the U.S. Congress, unlike the Bush administration, paid little special heed to a huge delegation of senior Chinese economic officials.

Shortly after the start of a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and her team of ministers that was meant to defuse tension over China’s currency policies, the entire cast of House members walked out of the meeting to vote on legislation related to U.S. military veteran health-care issues. That walkout left the Chinese side yawning and without interlocutors for about 15 minutes.

Then, as the meeting dragged on late, U.S. and Chinese security officials got into a row over whether China’s minister had to pass through metal detectors when entering the U.S. Senate for meetings scheduled for Thursday. U.S. Capitol security officials insisted Vice Premier Wu was the only official that could enter without being scanned, and the Chinese side requested the U.S. reciprocate their treatment toward U.S. officials during the first Strategic Economic Dialogue by allowing the entire team to pass.

Although less extreme, the spats echoed the gaffe-plagued April 2006 visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington. During that visit a Falun Gong protester interrupted an event on the White House South Lawn, and a White House announcement introduced China’s national anthem as that of the “Republic of China,” the official name of the island of Taiwan. China, formally called the People’s Republic of China, considers Taiwan a renegade province.

Topless Carwash Political Economy

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Environment at 5/25/2007 03:37:00 AM

WARNING: The topic of this post may be politically incorrect. Do not shoot the messenger. Pardon me for this silly post but I have been unable to resist it. You might be wondering, "What the !@#$ do topless carwashes have to do with international political economy?" Well, it's simple, really. The ongoing drought in Australia has made the government ban citizens from washing their own cars. That's the political side. Toss in the possible effects of global warming and you have an international side, too. Consequently, there has been a boom in carwashing services in drought-stricken areas. An enterprising (or depraved, depending on your point of view) strip joint operator thus decided to create a topless carwash service in Brisbane. That's the economic side--supply and demand, my friends. Here's the story:

Australia's worst drought in memory has had many weird side-effects -- but a nude carwash has to be one of the oddest. The "big dry" has driven snakes into towns in search of water and sent thirst-crazed wild camels rampaging through outback camps. In Brisbane, capital of the "Sunshine State" of Queensland on the east coast, it led to water restrictions, including a ban on residents washing their own cars. The result was a boom in professional carwash services, a phenomenon which caught the eye of strip club entrepreneur Warren Armstrong.
He set up "Bubbles 'n Babes", where customers can have their cars washed by a topless woman for 55 dollars (45 US), or a nude woman for 100 dollars. Armstrong told the City News newspaper this week the operation was above board.

"I'm just trying to make an honest dollar -- simple as that," he said. [Such a heartwarming story, Warren.]

Police said no complaints had been received and, as the washing took place out of public view, no criminal offence was being committed. Acting State Premier Anna Bligh said the operation was running on recycled water and therefore did not break water restrictions -- but neither she nor the government fleet would be using it.
"It seems to me a pretty weird and wacky way to get your car washed," she said.

Brisbane's finest have, er, washed their hands clean of the operation:

A nude carwash offering an X-rated sideshow and topless cleaning in Australia's tropical Queensland state has been given the all-clear after police and officials said they were powerless to scrub it.
The Bubbles 'n' Babes carwash in Brisbane prompted a flood of complaints with a topless car wash for A$55 (about R330) and a nude car wash with X-rated lap-dance service for A$100 (about R600).
"If it was approved for a car wash then I can't imagine how we can stop them," Lord Mayor Campbell Newman told a council meeting with worried local lawmakers...
The raunchy wash, set up by a strip-club owner, was screened from the public and used recycled water to avoid breaching water use restrictions, they said.
"We don't want any traffic accidents caused by people looking at the girls instead of looking at the road," Superintendent Colin Campbell told local media.

Australia, the Parched Land

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Environment,Music at 5/25/2007 03:11:00 AM

The drought in Australia I covered in an earlier post will certainly have wide-ranging effects on the political economy of the land down under. Leadership changes are likely in store as the Howard administration which has been in power for over a decade faces a big payback for its neglect of environmental issues. Worse, some scientists believe that this drought is not a one-time event, but a long-term trend of global warming frying Southeastern Australia which is home to some of the country's largest cities. A trend of Aussies flocking to parts of the country where water is more readily available may set off a housing boom in the latter areas.

This fine article by the Financial Times narrates the fight for water between residents and rice farmers. Howard has a tenuous grip on the farm vote as the consequences of the drought for Australia's farmers are dire. Also, those who have come to rely on Australian agricultural exports in Africa and Asia are also being affected:

Spot the odd one out. Asia has billions of cheap workers, so exports manufactures. Europe has millions of graduates, so exports banking. Africa has steamy tropical regions, so exports fruit. America has Hollywood, so exports movies. And Australia is the second-driest continent on earth after Antarctica, so it exports water.
It is a paradox on display in the rural town of Griffith, Australia, where fields of rice destined for export sit under water for five months of the year. But Griffith's farmers see no contradiction. Rob Houghton, a local farmer, says: "We have a global responsibility to grow rice the way we do. This is a business and we are among the best at it."
In the wake of the worst drought in living memory in Australia, a battle over the use of water is raging between farmers, urban consumers and environmentalists. Australia in effect sends abroad billions of cubic metres of water a year by using it to grow A$25bn-worth of exported farm goods, both "dryland" (rain-fed) produce such as wheat, beef, wool and dairy, and irrigated crops such as rice and fruit.
Spot the odd one out. Asia has billions of cheap workers, so exports manufactures. Europe has millions of graduates, so exports banking. Africa has steamy tropical regions, so exports fruit. America has Hollywood, so exports movies. And Australia is the second-driest continent on earth after Antarctica, so it exports water.
It is a paradox on display in the rural town of Griffith, Australia, where fields of rice destined for export sit under water for five months of the year. But Griffith's farmers see no contradiction. Rob Houghton, a local farmer, says: "We have a global responsibility to grow rice the way we do. This is a business and we are among the best at it."
In the wake of the worst drought in living memory in Australia, a battle over the use of water is raging between farmers, urban consumers and environmentalists. Australia in effect sends abroad billions of cubic metres of water a year by using it to grow A$25bn-worth of exported farm goods, both "dryland" (rain-fed) produce such as wheat, beef, wool and dairy, and irrigated crops such as rice and fruit.
Global rice prices, too, have risen rapidly. And a shortage of skimmed milk powder, a key ingredient in food processing, has forced up costs. Australia and New Zealand between them supply a third of world milk exports. "It would be very damaging if Australia and New Zealand stopped exporting dairy," Peter Favila, the Philippines' trade and industry secretary, told the FT recently. Other producers could come in to fill the gap, but not as cheaply...
But despite a historical Australian reverence for farming and rural life, the use of water in agriculture has now come under intense scrutiny. Trade should enable dry countries to import water by buyingwater-intensive food and fibre. Egypt, for example, now imports half its wheat,the traditional staple food. Parched Australia, however, is the world's largest net exporter of the "virtual water" embedded in farm produce.
Critics charge this means the country is in effect sucking itself dry to subsidise foreign consumers, and that it should expand other exports instead. Environmentalists say both irrigation and dryland farming deplete water stocks and cause rivers and the country's already naturally salty earth to become dangerously saline.
Griffith is at the frontline of Australia's water wars, the "Murray-Darling basin" - a river system named after its two main watercourses that covers parts of tropical Queensland and much of temperate New South Wales and Victoria, emptying into the sea by the South Australian city of Adelaide. Even farmers admit that the patchwork of state jurisdictions has handed out water rights haphazardly. In January John Howard, prime minister, announced a plan to centralise power over water in the federal government. Water has shot up the political agenda ahead of an election this year in which Mr Howard will be seeking a fifth term.
Irrigated farming is under particular scrutiny. Just 0.5 per cent of Australian farmland is artificially watered, but it produces 23 per cent of agricultural output. So much is financially and psychologically invested in irrigation in towns such as Griffith that to end it will be an enormous upheaval...
Mr Andreazza farms annual crops, usually rice in the summer and wheat in the winter. But the past year was, he says, "just a disaster". Each of his farms has a theoretical annual allocation of water but can only receive a percentage of that based on how much water is available. Because of the desperately low rainfall, the state government cut his allocation to 10 per cent of the maximum. His entire rice crop, which needs to sit under water between October and March, was lost. He was not alone: the national rice harvest - usually around 1.2m tonnes, 85 per cent of which is sold overseas - came in at just 100,000 tonnes...
Mr Howard's government is anxious not to hurt farmers, not least because they traditionally support its junior coalition partner, the National Party. The water issue pits two of the more glamorous characters of Australian politics against each other. The newly-appointed environment and water minister in Mr Howard's government is Malcolm Turnbull, a self-assured and hyperactive MP from Sydney, widely believed to have his own prime ministerial ambitions, while his opposite number in the Labor Party is Peter Garrett, long-time environmental activist and former singer with the socially conscious rock band Midnight Oil.
Mr Turnbull is a largely unknown quality down in Griffith, but antipathy to Mr Garrett is widespread. Though the Labor Party insists it is not anti-farmer, its electoral base is mainly urban and industrial. One Griffith winery owner says: "If Garrett becomes minister we can all walk off the farm the next day. He should stick to singing. Labor will keep all the water for Adelaide and the industries down there".

Peter Garrett is the lead singer for the Aussie band Midnight Oil, best known for their hit song (yes, more eighties stuff from me, sorry) "Beds Are Burning" about compensating Australia's aborigines. Fantastic song, pretty good video. I don't known about beds burning, but it seems that parts of Australia are definitely scorching. The time has come...

America's Beef With Japan

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Trade at 5/24/2007 02:47:00 AM

When it comes to protecting its agricultural industry, Japan is as shameless as the EU and the US. Despite US beef being deemed safe enough, Japan remains guarded on importing US beef. Many suspect that Japan has used recurrent "mad cow" episodes as an excuse to develop its own beef industry (moo). In any event, it's fun to see how agricultural subsidizers deal with each other in a holier-than-thou fashion. Is Japan concerned with protecting its citizens from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or protecting its domestic industry? Read on:

Japan has no immediate plans to relax its strict conditions on imports of U.S. beef, despite a decision by an international body saying some restrictions were not necessary, the government said Wednesday.

Japan only allows imports of U.S. beef from cattle not more than 20 months old, citing concerns about mad cow disease, which is believed to be more likely to affect older animals. The U.S. has called for that restriction to be eased.

The World Organization for Animal Health recently said the United States was a "controlled risk nation," a category that means countries can export beef irrespective of the animal's age, according to Toshio Katagai, a health ministry official.

The organization's decision was reached at a meeting in Paris to discuss the safety of animal products.

However, Japan will not immediately revise its policy on U.S. beef, the government said Wednesday.

"This will not lead to an immediate change of Japan's import conditions," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said. "It is important to respond to this issue by taking concrete steps in line with scientific facts to ensure food safety and consumers' trust."

John Howard, "Friend of the Earth"

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Energy,Environment at 5/24/2007 02:06:00 AM

Along with the US, Australia is famous for being an industrial country that did not sign up to the Kyoto Treaty. This anti-environmental stance owes much to Prime Minister John Howard, who has been PM since ~~Tony Blair was in his dipeys~~ 1996. Now, despite an economy that is humming along quite nicely due to strong overseas demand for natural resources, it seems that Howard's relative lack of environmental concern is at last catching up to him, or so Bloomberg suggests. As it stands, his party will get turfed during the 2007/08 election cycle. Yet, his party is partly going green so it won't be seeing red when the votes are tallied at the next election. Whether they can be convincing enough is another question as Australia continues to suffer from a massive drought and tight water restrictions are being enforced. It seems the lack of rain is weighing on voter's minds:

Clare Idriss was so concerned about carbon emissions generated by her wedding guests traveling across Australia in October that she bought A$350 ($283) of pollution credits to offset the greenhouse gases.
Idriss, 26, says Prime Minister John Howard isn't doing his part to address climate change. Howard has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on reducing carbon emissions, saying it will hurt the economy of the world's largest coal exporter.

``There are a lot of options out there, but they're choosing not to be supportive,'' said Idriss, an engineer who got married in Mittagong, 110 kilometers (68 miles) southwest of Sydney.

New weather patterns have become a hot-button issue as the world's driest inhabited continent suffers its worst drought ever recorded. The debate may help determine who will be Australia's next prime minister in an election due by Jan. 19.

Kevin Rudd, leader of the opposition Labor Party, pledges to ratify Kyoto and cut emissions by 60 percent by 2050 if he wins control of the government.

``Given how close the election is going to be, it could be a decisive factor,'' said Andrew Macintosh, deputy director of the Australia Institute, a Canberra-based research group...
Forty-three percent of voters back Howard's 11-year-old government, compared with 57 percent for Labor, according to a May 18-20 survey of 1,151 people by market researcher Newspoll. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.

A March survey commissioned by the Climate Institute, a Sydney-based lobby group, found that 80 percent of the almost 1,000 Australians polled supported laws to curb greenhouse gases.

``It's one of those genuine moments when an issue's time has come,'' said Murray Hogarth, campaign manager at Easy Being Green, a Sydney-based company that sells carbon credits to households and companies.

A temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) may bleach 97 percent of Australia's Great Barrier Reef, the world's largest coral system, every year, according to the national science agency. Prolonged bleaching, caused by the loss of algae that live in the reef, can kill coral...
Howard's Liberal-National coalition is trying to bolster its environmental credentials. In February, it announced plans to ban incandescent lights by 2010 in favor of more energy-efficient fluorescent bulbs. That may cut greenhouse emissions by 4 million tons a year by 2015 -- 0.7 percent of current levels.

Treasurer Peter Costello allocated A$150 million in his May 8 budget to double the rebate for homeowners who install solar panels.

``I'll embrace policies that make a contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a proportionate, measured way that don't destroy jobs, particularly in the coal industry,'' Howard said at an April 12 press conference.

Coal exports will earn Australia A$22.3 billion in the year to June 30, the government forecasts...
``Howard's climate change policy is a joke,'' said Verness, 36. ``It's been dreamed up because he knows it's on people's minds, not because he cares about what impact we are having on the environment.''

Australia generates 85 percent of its electricity from coal, helping make it the industrialized world's biggest greenhouse gas emitter per person, according to the Australia Institute.

The nation released 559 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere in 2005, about 1.5 percent of the global total, the government's Greenhouse Office estimates.

On a related note, the drought is predicted by some to cause a property boom in parts of Oz. How so? Folks might start buying up property in areas which aren't stricken by drought (!):

The ongoing drought will propel the newest property trend with homeowners moving in search of water, a national property researcher says.

The owner of property investment advisory service Hotspotting, Terry Ryder, said the "sea change" and "tree change" phenomena would be followed by an "oasis change" as water availability became a major influence on property buying patterns.

"The ongoing drought, the subsequent introduction of water restrictions and the increased cost of water use has already propelled the issue up the list of buyers' priorities," Mr Ryder said.

He released a list of the top six "oasis hotspots", chosen for their high rainfall or secure water supplies from dam or groundwater stores.

Mr Ryder identifies Townsville, in north Queensland; Perth; Maleny, in south-east Queensland; Dubbo, in central NSW; and Hobart.

Other notable locations were Darwin; Atherton Tableland, in north Queensland; and Port Macquarie, Taree and Bathurst, in NSW.

"While hordes of people are not going to move immediately to the wilds of Tasmania or western Queensland purely for water reasons, the `oasis change' will be a factor amongst baby boomers looking to find a nice place to retire and working families who just want to plant some cherry tomatoes and keep their car and driveway clean," Mr Ryder said.

He said dwindling water supplies in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and south-east Queensland may affect the property market in the long term in those areas

Sander Levin on Money & Politics

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Trade at 5/23/2007 07:25:00 PM

I found this video clip of Congressman Sander Levin (D-Michigan) appearing on Bloomberg's Money & Politics segment. He is one of the most vocal American politicians in calling for a yuan revaluation. Following from the previous post, he reiterated that lack of action on the part of China on yuan revaluation will mean legislation. Read: punitive tariffs. This short clip is worth viewing (it's in Windows Media Player format). Some excerpts:

Sander Levin: China continues to rig its currency...it's a 15 to 40% undervaluation of Chinese currency...

Peter Cook (Bloomberg): How much time are you willing to give [the Bush Administration and Secretary Paulson]?

Sander Levin: If there isn't action soon [by China on yuan undervaluation], then there will be legislation.

Peter Cook (Bloomberg): Are you worried it might trigger a trade war...?

Sander Levin: I want competition to be fair. That's not asking for a trade war.

Strategic Economic Dialogzzzzz...

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in China,Trade at 5/23/2007 04:45:00 PM

Let me interpret Paulson's closing statements for the recently concluded Strategic Economic Dialogue for you. As I suggested, nothing much happened:

Thank you, Vice Premier Wu Yi and your distinguished colleagues for a very productive two days. My colleagues and I have been impressed by, and grateful for, the openness and positive spirit you brought to this meeting of the Strategic Economic Dialogue. ["Why the heck did they even bother coming here if they weren't going to seriously discuss yuan revaluation? Time could have been better spent watching reruns of My Mother the Car."]
Over the last five months, China and the United States have come together to discuss our shared economic interests with mutual respect. We agree on many issues. We agree that it is vital to the prosperity of both our nations, that China rebalance its economic growth, encourage consumption and spread development more broadly among its people. We agree that by combining the power of our economies, we can spur further development of clean energy technology. We agree that strengthening and deepening our two-way trading relationship will create jobs and give our citizens a wider variety of choices and lower prices on goods. [Actually, over the last five months, the US has hauled China before the WTO over subsidies as well as intellectual property enforcement and market access. Aside from those three small matters, the US also slapped tariffs on Chinese coated paper exports for good measure. So much for agreeing on the issues.]

While we have much more work to do, we have tangible results for our efforts thus far. These results are like signposts on the long- term strategic road, building confidence and encouraging us to continue moving forward together. [Nevermind that Vice-Premier Wu Yi was so annoyed by US trade measures against China that she almost didn't bother to come, but...]

The United States and China understand that getting our economic relationship right is vital not only to our people, but to the world economy. Vice Premier Wu and I see an important part of our job is to communicate frequently, iron out differences, and keep the economic relationship on an even keel, even during times of tension. Our relationship works best when it produces mutual benefits, which lead to growth, balance and a stronger global economy. [So you say, Paulson. I think that Congress and the China Currency Coalition have different ideas.]

We agreed today on a wide variety of next steps, including significant items in financial services, energy and the environment, and civil aviation. The dialogue will continue; our cooperative spirit will continue as well. At our next meeting, we will focus on capturing the benefits and managing the challenges of global economic integration. [Say, whatever happened to the yuan? It's just a peripheral matter next to opening up Chinese financial markets for Paulson's Wall $treet chums, right?]

We have built strong relationships since our inaugural meeting in Beijing. Those relationships will continue to grow stronger and produce on-going returns. On behalf of the American delegation, thank you for coming and we look forward to returning to China later this year. [Speak for yourself and the Bush administration which got big contributions from Wall $treet in 2004, Paulson. The famed bipartisan, veto-proof, WTO-legal bill on Chinese yuan undervaluation will be tabled soon. Whether it's Ryan-Hunter or Grassley-Baucus-Schumer-Graham, it won't be long in coming.]

Vice-Premier Wu Yi meets with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi later today in a closed session of Congress as well as with "Capital G" Bush on Thursday. I am inclined to think Pelosi won't be sugarcoating matters that much. After all, she is on board the China Currency Coalition and voted against China's accession to the WTO. Good fight, good night.

The British National Party Cometh

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Migration at 5/23/2007 05:17:00 AM

UK Industry Minister Margaret Hodge has been a lightning rod for controversy for the longest time. Her latest (mis)adventure began with this op-ed in the Guardian Unlimited on housing for immigrants which many took as pandering to a constituency with an anti-immigration undertone:

We prioritise the needs of an individual migrant family over the entitlement others feel they have. So a recently arrived family with four or five children living in a damp and overcrowded, privately rented flat with the children suffering from asthma will usually get priority over a family with less housing need who have lived in the area for three generations and are stuck at home with the grandparents. [The Guardian points out that this is factually incorrect.]
We should look at policies where the legitimate sense of entitlement felt by the indigenous family overrides the legitimate need demonstrated by the new migrants.
We should also look at drawing up different rules based on, for instance, length of residence, citizenship or national insurance contributions which carry more weight in a transparent points system used to decide who is entitled to access social housing.There are a small number of confirmed refugees who, of course, would receive the same entitlements as British citizens. However, most new migrant families are economic migrants who choose to come to live and work here. If you choose to come to Britain, should you presume the right to access social housing?

Now, Barking has a large white working class community that has become disaffected with politics-as-usual. During the 2006 election cycle, she gave attention to the fringe British National Party (BNP) by noting that it might garner 8 out of 10 white votes there. Critics say this led to the BNP winning 12 out of 13 seats contested by BNP candidates in Barking during local council elections. The BNP, by the way, resents the "white supremacist" characterization and has this alternative definition to offer:

How should the British National Party describe its underlying philosophy? We are neither a “right-wing” nor “left-wing” political party. We reject international capitalism, little-Englander type civic nationalism and international Marxism and despite what the liberal-left media slander us with, we are not a party of race hatred nor white supremacists so what are we?

Perhaps there isn’t an existing phrase in the political dictionary to define our embrace of personal responsibility coupled with care for the wide community, our embrace of genuine freedom of thought, of expression and association coupled with a duty to the greater good of family, community and nation. Overriding all is the notion of love - love of our own kind, our rich heritage, our hallowed traditions and centuries old “western” philosophy.

In any event, her op-ed poured even more fuel to the fire that she was pandering once again to the BNP for political purposes:

Margaret Hodge today defended her call for British families to be given housing priority over immigrants as critics claimed she was at risk of allowing the far-right BNP to dictate government policy.
The industry and regions minister acknowledged that the issue was "difficult and contentious" but said that she hoped to engage in a "civilised and constructive dialogue".
Mrs Hodge spoke out after her comments at the weekend prompted outrage from politicians of all parties.
Earlier today, Ken Livingstone, the mayor of London, warned that her outburst would be "catastrophic for community relations", while Labour MP Diane Abbott tabled a Commons motion condemning her remarks...
David Cameron, the Conservative leader, responded by cautioning MPs against "pouring out of their surgeries" and adding to the debate on immigration after listening to complaints from constituents which could be based upon rumours and inaccuracies.
And earlier today Ms Abbott insisted that the current housing crisis would not be solved by "scapegoating homeless families on the basis of race, ethnicity or national origin".
"Mrs Hodge has implied that at the moment immigrants receive some sort of special treatment for social housing; that is simply not true," she said.
"The problem with housing does not come from immigrants being given first choice but rather from the major lack of housing in this country.
"The idea of a native-born preference for social housing is clearly discriminatory ... Social housing should be allocated on the basis of need and nothing else.
"This is supposed to be a Labour government, so why are some ministers allowing the BNP to dictate our policies?"
Mr Livingstone added: "Margaret Hodge's suggestion that housing allocation should be based not on need but factors like length of residence would be catastrophic for community relations ...
"Politicians in general, and government ministers in particular, should get their facts right before making statements with the potential to do great harm to the good community relations on which the prosperity of all Londoners depends."
The Refugee Council pointed out that asylum seekers are not entitled to council housing, and that immigrants from new European Union countries face restricted access to benefits.
Yesterday, Jon Cruddas, the Labour deputy leadership hopeful and MP for Dagenham - which borders Mrs Hodge's Barking constituency - said that the minister's comments were "not only wrong; they are also inflammatory".
An early day motion tabled by Ms Abbott and supported by Keith Vaz, the former Europe minister, expresses regret at "the honourable member for Barking's recent call to give British people housing priority over immigrants".
It adds that the MPs do "not believe that the current housing crisis will be solved by scapegoating homeless families on the basis of race, ethnicity or national origin".

Monetary Unions Galore

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Trade at 5/22/2007 02:53:00 AM

I still remember way back when the Euro was in the $0.80 range. Folks were dumping all over it as a dumb idea that would soon end in disaster, particularly the Euroskeptics who dominate the English media. Then a funny thing happened: the Euro rose to $1.3680 and has never looked back since. The Euro has passed the el crappo worthless little green depreciation machines in terms of both bond issuance and currency in worldwide circulation. Now, everyone seems keen on setting up similar monetary unions. Let's tackle them in order:

1. Asian monetary union - the Asian Development Bank has been investigating the possibility of creating an Asian Currency Unit (ACU). However, its prospects are hindered by political horseplay ("whore's play"?...sorry for the pun). From the Vietnam Economic Times:

It is now too early to talk about issuance of an Asian common currency despite increasing economic independence between countries in this region. Many mistake the Asian Currency Unit (ACU) which will be launched by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in March or April this year for an Asian common currency (note or coin). Such an understanding views the ACU similar to the euro which is circulating in the world. ADB representative at Manila (Philippines) headquarters talked with VnEconomy about this issuing plan.

The trend of individual Asian currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar, the euro, or the yen, is well known. However, while economic interdependence in Asia is rapidly increasing, it is still difficult to observe how Asian currencies are moving against each other and how Asian currencies as a whole are moving against external currencies, such as the US dollar, the euro, or the British pound. We intend to calculate an Asian Currency Unit as a weighted index of East Asian currencies in order to create a regional benchmark to monitor such trends.

ADB is currently reviewing different options concerning the technical aspects related to ACU calculation, including the nature of the basket, the choice of fixed weights vs. fixed units, the selection of currencies to be included in the basket, the choice of weights, the criteria for their periodical revision, and other aspects as well. After completing an internal review of these technical aspects, we expect to post several indexes for ACU on the ADB website in the next few months.

View this presentation by no less than Robert Barro from the ADB website if you're really interested.

2. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monetary union - this one is already underway to some extent, though the Middle East oilers are in danger of not meeting planned dates:

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and three other Gulf Arab oil producers may miss a 2010 deadline to create a single currency because their economic systems are not yet aligned, Bahrain's Crown Prince said on Tuesday.
"I find it increasingly unlikely to meet that date," Sheikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa told reporters on the sidelines of an exhibition in the Bahraini capital, Manama. He was responding to questions about whether the states could meet the deadline.

The six states, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman, suffer from a "lack of complementary systems", Sheikh Salman said, without being more specific.

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries plan to establish a single currency on January 1, 2010. Gulf officials have raised doubts in the past few months about whether the target could be met.

Asked whether he was concerned about the US dollar's recent slide to a record low against the euro, Sheikh Salman said: "It's not a situation that we haven't been in before. We can handle it, I think."

3. North American monetary union (choke! gasp!) - yessiree Bob, even the Americans might soon junk the wretched dollar. Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge had this to say:

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Monday it was "possible" there could at some point be a unified North American currency similar to Europe's euro.
However, Dodge, answering questions from the audience after a speech on global economic institutions, said the countries involved would have to "tear down borders in terms of labor flows" to make a joint currency work.
Instead, borders between Canada, the United States and Mexico have "gotten a bit thicker" in recent years, he said.

I am least sanguine on the prospects for an "Amero." This one's a long shot, baby :-)