♠ Posted by Emmanuel in Security
at 3/29/2007 08:55:00 PM
I was hoping that this story of British sailors captured by Iran would have disappeared from the headlines by now as it is, to my thinking, exceedingly ridiculous. Frankly, I do not see how Iran can gain anything from detaining the British sailors any longer. To date, the UK has been playing "good cop" to America's "bad cop" in trying to engage Iran diplomatically along with France and Germany on the nuclear issue. (Not that Iran hasn't been able to game the system.) Now, however, Iran is testing the goodwill of one of the few countries attempting to hold back more drastic American action. If Iran backing out on releasing the lady English hostage was not bad enough, then suggesting that these sailors would be put on (show) trial is even worse. It's almost 1979 all over again, except with a Brit flavor--rising oil prices, saber-rattling, and diplomatic dogfighting at the United Nations. Even the current British foreign minister, Margaret Beckett, cut her teeth as a minister during the term of the late PM James Callaghan.Some suggest that Iran is trying to use the hostages as bargaining chips over its nuclear program. This line of thinking is perverse since removing whatever remaining goodwill Britain, France, and Germany collectively hold for Iran is not wise, to say the least. Hardliners in the US will tell the European three "I told you so" and may pave the way for tougher measures. It's also a stretch to use British captives in trying to free five Iranian diplomats detained by Americans in Iraq--this is a non sequitur. I would normally find humor in the Keystone Kops- and Fawlty Towers-inspired Iranian efforts to place these sailors within Iranian waters during their capture, but not now. First, they gave the English the coordinates of where they were captured. Next, the English determined that they were indeed still inside Iraqi waters. In response, the Iranians then provided another set of coordinates that showed them as being in Iranian waters. As I said, this is ridiculous.
That British troops should be in Iraq in the first place is a matter I will not touch upon as it is another can of worms. As before, I hope this episode comes to pass without a skirmish. Oil prices have gone from slightly above $60 to $66 a barrel as "political risk" has presumably gone up. Message to Iran: this is not how to win friends and influence people in the international community.
