♠ Posted by Emmanuel in
China,
Trade
at 4/06/2007 12:49:00 AM
The IMF is holding an
open conference on the Global Implications of China's Trade, Investment and Growth later today in Washington, DC. Though I have qualms about holding a conference on Good Friday (naughty, naughty), the papers to be presented appear interesting based on preliminary viewing. In particular, I have skimmed the Swenson paper which suggests that the presence of multinational firms in specific industries that invest in China may lead to "spillover effects" that boost the export prospects of Chinese firms within those industries. Based on a preliminary reading, the Amiti & Freund and Cui & Syed papers come to somewhat dissimilar findings regarding the composition of China's exports. While the former notes that China's export growth from 1992 through 2005 occurred in categories it was already exporting in 1992, the latter notes that Chinese exports are increasing in technological sophistication. From the Cui & Syed paper are two helpful charts below depicting the shift in Chinese exports to machinery, transport equipment, and manufactured goods and away from consumer goods:
All papers appear well worth reading for the keen Sinologist. Dollar & Wei harp on the theme that Chinese investment in state-owned enterprises is still inefficient; better allocation would mean a 5% decrease in investment intensity without a concomitant decrease in economic growth. Happy reading!
An Anatomy of China's Export GrowthMary Amiti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Caroline Freund (IMF)
The Relative Sophistication of Chinese ExportsPeter Schott (Yale University)
Multinationals and the Creation of Chinese Trade LinkagesDeborah Swenson (University of California, Davis)
China's Export Growth and the China Safeguard: Threats to the World Trading SystemChad Bown (Brandeis University) and Meredith Crowley (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
China's Role as Engine and Conduit of GrowthShaghil Ahmed. et. al. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
Das (Wasted) Kapital: Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in ChinaDavid Dollar (World Bank) and Shang-Jin Wei (IMF)
Measuring the Vertical Specialization in Chinese TradeJudith Dean, K.C. Fung and Zhi Wang (U.S. International Trade Commission)
Is China Changing its Stripes? The Shifting Structure of China's External Trade and Its ImplicationsLi Cui and Murtaza Husain Syed (IMF)
