Paging le Carre, Forsyth: PRC Spooks Amok in UK

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/31/2010 06:30:00 PM
People enjoy reading spy novels for understandable reasons: exotic locations, everyday people who are actually secret agents, a gallery of rogues, and healthy doses of sex and violence help the plot move along nicely and divert us from the mundanity of our 21st century domesticated existence. While the settings are different now--Cold War cloak-and-dagger has given way to terrorists hellbent on realizing radical their visions and computer geeks using tools of the digital age for surreptitious information gathering--the interplay of, yes, spy versus spy remains the focal point of interest. Oftentimes these sorts of activities...
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Trivia Time! What's the World's Largest Trade Bloc?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/31/2010 12:31:00 AM
What's the world's largest trade bloc?a. North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)b. European Union (EU)c. Mercado Común del Sur (Mercosur)d. China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA)OK, so that's a trick question. We need to be more specific:If you're thinking in terms of combined population, a free trade agreement which came into effect at the start of the year that received very little coverage in the Western-centric media (with some exceptions) is the correct answer--d. From Xinhua: The China-ASEAN free trade area covered a population of 1.9 billion and a combined gross domestic product close to 6 trillion U.S. dollars. It is the world's largest trading bloc in terms of population covered and the third largest in terms of trading volume.Third place in trading volume terms is not to be sneezed at, either. It's a common criticism of Western media--particularly the American variety--that even "international" news tends to be parochial in nature. If it cannot be related...
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Fire Your Guns: Taiwan and US-China Relations

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/30/2010 04:46:00 PM
AcDc-Fire Your GunsUploaded by sasho7. - See the latest featured music videos.The US and China's squabbles are legion: unbalanced trade; the renminbi's value; the Internet; human rights; Tibet; freedom of speech; the environment; global warming; and coddling of despotic regimes like North Korea, Iran, and Sudan. Today, however, we return to the issue of Taiwan which we have covered in many previous posts [1, 2, 3]. The pattern has always been the same thus far: America decides to sell weapons to Taiwan, China makes a fuss of it, and then things are forgotten after a while until the next round of US arms sales to Taiwan. Beijing, of course, has always been viewed the ROC as a renegade province. Hence, the matter of Taiwan has always been regarded as an internal matter demanding others' non-interference. During the days of independence-minded Taiwanese leader Chen Shui Bian, the PRC used to warn that force would be implemented in the event Taiwan declared independence.So we receive...
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Dollar Basher Roundup: Lord Turner & Bin Laden

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 1/30/2010 10:05:00 AM
In normal circumstances, you probably wouldn't lump the world's most famous financial regulator--Lord Turner of Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA)--with the world's most famous terrorist. These, however, are not normal times. First up is Lord Turner inveighing against the dollar carry trade borne of abnormally low interest rates:Lord Turner of Ecchinswell, chairman of the Financial Services Authority, said that a big part of the foreign exchange trading business of the City of London was “economically valueless” and hinted at a crackdown on a popular speculative activity called the carry trade.In an echo of his controversial assertion last summer that parts of the City were “socially useless”, Lord Turner said that banks and hedge funds that borrowed cheaply in US dollars to bet on higher-yielding investments in emerging markets were adding no value to the real economy. “If I could wave a magic wand here, and greatly reduce the carry trade, I’m pretty certain the world...
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Out Now: UK Inequality Report

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 1/29/2010 08:08:00 PM
I almost forgot to post on this: Just made available is a report commissioned by UK Minister for Women and Equality Harriet Harman and prepared by the LSE's very own Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion. The report was co-authored by some of the biggest names in the UK working on social policy issues including Ruth Lister (social exclusion) and Tariq Modood (multiculturalism). The results should be of concern not just for feminists but society as a whole: although women up to age 44 are better qualified than their male counterparts, they earn 21% less. Minorities also fare quite poorly in relation to the reference white...
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Fannie, Freddie and a Russia Conspiracy Theory

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/29/2010 05:50:00 PM
Former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (AKA The Great Paulsonio in these parts) is coming out with an autobiography called On the Brink. An interesting claim he makes according to the FT is that, to punish the United States for its support of Georgia during the latter's conflict with Russia over breakaway territories, Russia tried to involve China in a large sell-off of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities:Russia proposed to China that the two nations should sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds in 2008 to force the US government to bail out the giant mortgage-finance companies, former US Treasury secretary Hank Paulson has claimed...Mr Paulson said that he was told about the Russian plan when he was in Beijing for the Olympics in August 2008. Russia had gone to war with Georgia, a US ally, on August 8. “Russian officials had made a top-level approach to the Chinese, suggesting that together they might sell big chunks of their GSE holdings to force the US to use its emergency...
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China Won't Save Greece by Buying $35B of Bonds

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,,, at 1/28/2010 05:01:00 PM
A few days ago we looked at how internationalized financial difficulties have become by analyzing how the 2004 Greek Olympics have contributed to Greece's Olympian money woes. Well, continuing with the theme of higher, stronger, faster deficits, news outlets are reporting an interesting relationship Greece is purported to have with the holder of the 2008 Olympics--China. Republicans in America have a stock solution for everything that ails of "cut taxes." If I have one, it's "sell it to the Chinese."Apparently, the Greek authorities may have contemplated this idea in financing its gargantuan pile of debt. The Financial Times...
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Is Obama a Worse Deficit Lover Than Bush?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 1/28/2010 09:31:00 AM
There is much that's objectionable in the American president's address to both houses of Congress from a fiscal standpoint such as expecting that soaking the 2% wealthiest while cutting taxes on 95% of the rest will somehow help remedy the morass it has sunken into. I particularly like this sleight of hand:At the beginning of the last decade, the year 2000, America had a budget surplus of over $200 billion. By the time I took office, we had a one-year deficit of over $1 trillion and projected deficits of $8 trillion over the next decade. Most of this was the result of not paying for two wars, two tax cuts, and an expensive prescription drug program. On top of that, the effects of the recession put a $3 trillion hole in our budget. All this was before I walked in the door.Alright, this part is true enough. Medicare Part D did blow a big hole into America's fiscal picture. However, we need to move into the more important, "OK, so what are you going to do about it?" phase. Obama...
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The Motherlode on China-US Economic Relations

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 1/28/2010 12:30:00 AM
It is always humbling when you fail to notice the proliferation of highly useful and informative blogs on the Internet. Today, I have stumbled upon an amazing blog for junkies of China-US economic relations written by those who should know much about it. Baker Hostetler is among the American law firms with a large presence in the international trade law arena. As such, you won't be surprised to know that their blog offering, China-US Trade Law, makes exhaustive analyses of the aforementioned economic relations. With its emerging emphasis on trade rows between the two nations, the firm's regular dealings with key US bodies dealing with trade matters (Department of Commerce, International Trade Commission, Consumer Product Safety Commission) makes for informed reading.Topics are covered in considerable depth--almost too much depth for blog posts, I think. As expected, more detailed analyses also means that topics are covered some time after the fact. Nonetheless, it's a wonderful...
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Cybersecurity Comes of Age in US Policy Dialogue

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/27/2010 02:26:00 PM
This post is just a follow-up to the thoughts I've expressed in previous posts that, contrary to conspiracy theories, it is unlikely that the United States is using "information imperialism" to not so surreptitiously foment overthrow of socialist regimes and other unsavoury types. What follows are excerpts from the unclassified version of a White House-commissioned study on how securing US cyberspace. The Internet has become a backbone of everyday life. Hence, securing it against potential attacks is of paramount importance. Notably, the White House concedes that the United States is quite vulnerable to cyberattacks at the...
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"America Uses Internet to Spread Regime Change"

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/26/2010 03:36:00 PM
Here's yet another interpretation of Google in China if you're unsatisfied with the Emmanuel-esque take on them [1, 2, 3]. This one's broadly in line with the "information imperialism" school of thought that the official publication The Global Times put forth. At least that's a paraphrase of what the World Socialist Website (WSWS) says about Hillary Clinton's recent speech:This was, however, only a cover for the assertion of a global mandate for Washington to destabilize or overthrow governments worldwide. Clinton praised the Twitter and Internet organizing behind US-backed "color revolutions," including most recently the...
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Sleeping On the Blog: Fed to Kill Int'l Swap Lines

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/26/2010 12:17:00 AM
An old professor of mine pointed out that "business intelligence" did not often require special connections to movers and shakers of high finance and holders of office. No, it might be something as mundane as reading the pages of the Wall Street Journal and picking up a story that most everyone else missed for one reason or another. Try and connect the dots in an otherwise jiggery pokery image and you may eventually realize a pattern that no one else sees. As quite a few readers probably know, Brad Setser--then of RGE Monitor, subsequently with the CFR, and now working for the White House's National Economic Council--gave...
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There's No Country Without Chinese Trade Issues

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 1/25/2010 12:07:00 AM
I have often pondered how China can better win friends and influence people in the world economy. The definition of "hegemony" is often given as the ability and willingness to provide public goods that others cannot. Hegemony, of course, differs from mere preponderance--you can be streets ahead of everyone else, but they won't get with your programme if they perceive you're only looking out for #1. This being me to yet another discussion of China. It seems that its trade practices have had precisely the opposite effect of annoying pretty much everybody else. By re-establishing a peg of 6.83 yuan to the dollar, it has followed...
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What Would Adam Smith Do About Ben Bernanke?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 1/23/2010 03:54:00 PM
At the risk of a dressing down from Gavin Kennedy, Adam Smith would get rid of B-B-B-Bennie of the Feds straight away and get another Fed chief. As you probably know, Bernanke's renomination as Federal Reserve chairman is being subject to political football at the moment. See the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal for more. While there is some argument as to what would happen in the event that his renomination does not run into procedural tussles by garnering less than sixty votes in the US Senate--will he be forced to step down as head of the FOMC or not--this much is clear: his renomination is not a sure thing as discipline on the Democratic aisle is breaking down, with elections looming and a president losing popularity.Let us return to one of Smith's most quoted statements:It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to...
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Love Reign O'er Me: Tobin Tax Re-Re-Re-Visited

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/23/2010 12:39:00 PM
[Before reading on, cue The Who--see, 70s music this time.] It's somewhat odd that the Great Banker Backlash is gaining momentum only so many months after the fact, but here we go. Perhaps all those fat banker bonuses from artificially huge spreads--borrow cheap care of expansive fiscal policies but still led relatively expensively--did them in. Barack Obama got this most recent round going only a few days ago with proposals to separate "banks" from "casinos" as well as limits to bank size. It's not quite Glass-Steagall II insofar as the delineation between investment and retail banking isn't as clear. Plus, limits to interstate presences of banks in Glass-Steagall will not be reinstituted--the concern the so-called Volcker plan raises has more to deal with balance sheet size as opposed to geographic spread.At any rate, the race is on for world governments in one-upmanship for implementing banking regulation. Not to be outdone, our very own Gordon Brown is again raising the spectre...
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PRC to Hillary: Shove Yer "Information Imperialism"

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/22/2010 04:17:00 PM
Now it's payback time. Continuing our recent Internet in China series [1, 2, 3], we left off with me suggesting that US government action on behalf of Google was imminent. Lo and behold, the State Department recently released a plea from Missus Clinton for China to respect Internet freedom. I've long wondered why she's chosen to play second fiddle to Barack Obama, a far less formidable figure as we're beginning to find out. Now, however, we may be getting to the point where we can test Missus Clinton's mettle against the most recalcitrant foe you can possibly imagine in the PRC. In some things you can see win-win scenarios;...
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Is Larry Summers Behind Obama's Bank Bashing?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 1/21/2010 11:25:00 PM
Two days ago, I read Simon Schama's insightful piece on how US President Obama should adopt FDR-ish populist policies to regain momentum against resurgent Republican opposition. While I have been hard on Obama once in a while, make no mistake that I regard him as a lesser evil than those from the party of his predecessor. It now seems Schama was prescient: Obama has just unleashed new proposals to limit the remit of big banks in terms of trading on their own account and cornering "excessive" market share. What I would really like to know is what Larry Summers thinks of all this. While Summers' predecessor as Treasury Secretary...
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