Obama, Bernanke, Stimulus & American Brattiness

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/30/2012 03:38:00 PM
The New Yorker has an interesting new take on one of my favourite research genres, the search for the behavioural pathologies which account for terminal American decline, be it in health, income, wealth, life satisfaction or what else have you. Why should a clearly regressive society influence so much of what goes on in the rest of the world? It is not exactly news to the rest of the world that American parenting is as crappy as it gets, hence the search for solutions from more parentally enlightened societies [1, 2]. Nor is it news that American stewardship of the world economy is nearly as bad. Ultimately, these two are...
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No Jobs? Come to Germany, Young PIGS Citizens

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 6/28/2012 07:20:00 AM
From station to station Back to Dusseldorf City Meet Iggy Pop and David Bowie Trans-Europe Express  Whew! We haven't had a video feature in a while, so here's a classic, Kraftwerk's Trans-Europe Express. Economic migration is often driven by differentials in economic opportunities, whether they be more job openings or higher pay. Whereas in the past the Poland to UK route used to be popular in Europe along with other Eastern to Western European migration corridors, times have changed. Poland for instance is faring rather better than the UK economically and so on. The WSJ sifts through recent OECD data to find,...
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Geography Flunkies? Pakistan Wants to Join ASEAN

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/26/2012 01:10:00 PM
Of the few opinions I share with George W. Bush, I have long argued that Turkey should be allowed to join the European Union. You know all of the counter-arguments: Turkey is a security risk because it shares borders with Iraq and Syria. Turkey is a dominantly Islamic country, whereas most European nations share a Judeo-Christian tradition. Turkey is a populous nation whose EU membership might see a tsunami of migrants heading for European states. And so on and so forth. While many of these concerns can be legitimately discounted, I never thought that I would face a similar conundrum in our part of the world, Southeast Asia. Of all the darndest things I could possibly read, how about Pakistan wishing to join ASEAN? On the occasion of predominantly Islamic nations Indonesia and Pakistan signing a (rather limited) FTA, the head of Pakistan's largest chamber of commerce suggests his country is very much interested in this possibility: Pakistan wants to join the Association of...
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Euro 2012 Beggar's Battle: Spain vs Portugal

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/24/2012 03:54:00 PM
There was much made of the earlier Germany versus Greece Euro 2012 match and its symbolism for European integration. To no one's real surprise, Germany, erm, booted Greece out of the Euro by winning 4-2. Sure the Greek fans present at the match had their cheap thrills booing lustily whenever Angela Merkel's image was broadcast on the arena's screens, but still. If it's any consolation, remember that the Greeks scored the fluke of all flukes by winning the tournament in 2004 (and look how that euphoria has translated into economic gain). This year, though, there was no Cinderella story to be had since Greek fans hoped for the...
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So, When Will S&P Downgrade the US Again?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 6/24/2012 07:14:00 AM
Friends, there are certain certainties in life: Germany will do well in whatever international football (soccer) competition it enters, Lucy will pull the football before Charlie Brown can kick it; and the United States will inevitably get fatter and more indebted. Unless you read too many Paul Krugman op-eds--or Dan Drezner USA#1 cheerleading blog posts for that matter--you probably get the idea that deficits do matter. Recently, S&P--which famously did the first deed in downgrading the bedraggled US of A among the three major credit rating agencies--issued an updated outlook on its sovereign credit risk. You will be unsurprised to hear that it remains likely to be knocked down a further peg or four in the near future. This also takes into consideration that no fiscal consolidation takes place alike the discontinuance of the infamous Bush tax cuts (as if the country has done so much better with them). From S&P, then: Instead, our current (and previous) base-case fiscal...
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Putin's a Smart Guy: Worry About $, Not €

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 6/20/2012 12:34:00 PM
Anglophone economic commentary about the euro usually veers towards the "I told you so" variety, nevermind that no one has actually wanted out of the EMU while many are still lining up to join it--including the most economically progressive economy that's still out of it. British Euroskeptic dyspeptics and their American wannabe counterparts aside, many recognize that the potential fallout from the US dollar is far greater given that it (unfortunately) is of more systemic consequence than the euro. Moreover, whoever said that being in a currency union absolves anyone of responsible economic stewardship? EMU members understood that they could no longer avail of devaluation strategies favoured by certain other countries (even though no one has ever devalued their way to prosperity). So, it is refreshing to hear Vladimir Putin raise a concern many of us from the developing world have. Earlier on he was spot-on in describing the United States as a parasite on the world economy....
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New(er) World Order: LDCs Give IMF Conditionalities

♠ Posted by Emmanuel at 6/19/2012 02:45:00 PM
It's a topsy-turvy world when you have poor countries (a) contributing emergency funds to help bail out rich countries and (b) placing loan conditionalities on the IMF instead of having conditionalities being placed on them by the IMF. However, these are not normal times. As Europe lurches from crisis to crisis at the whims of the Greek electorate and market forces among other things, the cost of containing European contagion keeps rising. In the past, LDCs have been understandably unwilling to contribute more to the IMF given that America and Europe have not moved the ball forward on reforming voting shares manifested in quotas in accordance with the new contributions being made by developing countries. In particular, many European nations remain overrepresented given their actual contributions as compared to the pledged contributions of major developing nations. At the recent G20 summit in Mexico, however, these selfsame developing countries including previous repeat Latin...
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Out Now: LSE IDEAS on PRC Geoeconomic Strategy

♠ Posted by Emmanuel at 6/18/2012 12:16:00 PM
As usual, I am somewhat late with the publications generated by our very own LSE IDEAS, but let me rectify that here since there should be something for everyone with an interest in Chinese geopolitics. Drawing upon our own not-insubstantial in-house expertise--our Co-Director Arne Westad is fluent in Mandarin--and our expanding Rolodex of contributors, we have a fine selection here. Jonathan Fenby should be familiar as an old China hand among journalists, and he puts the question of whether China has a foreign policy at all given how, as I like to repeat, the Communist Party is hardly a monolithic entity given its competing...
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Like Attracts Like: Glazers Plan US Man U IPO [?!]

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/14/2012 10:23:00 AM
I have been following the plight of the reviled Glazer clan, erstwhile owners of Manchester United Football Club, as they raise the ire of English football fans with their vile "Ameriscum" shenanigans, featuring the worst sort of financial chicanery their home nation has to offer. Their 2005 original sin of acquiring the storied club via leveraged buyout saddled it with onerous debt, all the while forcing supporters to pay inflated ticket prices.  In August of last year we received news that the Glazers planned to improve the financial position of the debt-laden club by listing it in Singapore. Supposedly they would...
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It's All Greek to Me: Cyprus, Next on the EU Dole

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/12/2012 09:03:00 AM
Erm, on second thought, let's not call it a "bailout" but a "bank recapitalization programme" to use the sort of euphemisms Spanish officials prefer as they too succumbed to the inevitable when you have overextended banks. To be sure, there are differences among [i] a balance-of-payments crisis (in which case the IMF would have been functioning in its more classic lender of last resort role), [ii] a fiscal crisis (in which case the government has taken on too much debt and cannot meet its repayment obligations) and [iii] a banking crisis (in which case your banks don't have enough spare cash to stay afloat after loans they've...
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Pacquiao-Bradley, Stitched-Up Globalization Metaphor

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 6/11/2012 12:59:00 PM
Preponderance can be interpreted in any number of ways, but here's a thought for you: What if the globalization game was biased to produce results favouring certain nations time and again? That would indeed be a form of (malign) influence insofar as someone sets the rules of the game a certain way. If it's tails they win, and if it's heads they win again. Certainly there's good reason for some to think of globalization this way, where the rules of the game are indeed highly biased in favour of those who set the rules. In world trade for instance the United States has foisted many of its preferences for industrial policy,...
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Stiglitz Recycles Marx (But Fails to Quote Beardy)

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 6/10/2012 04:08:00 PM
While Joe Stiglitz is pretty hirsute himself, he's certainly no match for Karl Marx when it comes to luxuriant facial hair. Esquire considers Herr Marx's to be one of the best beards in history, and who am I to disagree. However, it seems Stiglitz is not only aping Marx's grooming habits but also his argument on the economy-wide effects of rising inequality. Return to the classic argument about the internal contradiction of capitalism that when wealth is increasingly concentrated in fewer hands, demand for the goods and services made by the capitalists will eventually dissipate, eventually threatening the sustainability of the entire capitalist system. With labour's share of income plummeting in a highly racialized and inequitable society like the United States, Stiglitz is not exactly the first to notice this trend. Other mainstream economists like Nouriel Roubini having noted the same. Anyway, Vanity Fair has an excerpt of his new book The Price of Inequality where he observes: When...
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The International Political Economy of Obesity

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/09/2012 03:26:00 PM
To be honest, IPE is usually not quite on the leading edge of social science in many respects. Prior to the breakout of the subprime crisis, there were next to no scholars focusing on real estate for instance save for a few exceptions like Herman Schwartz and Len Seabrooke. It thus bothers me that a quick Google search for "the international political economy of obesity" yielded my blog posts in the top three spots. Aargh. Make no mistake, however: I believe that this subject matter will be a topic of, ah, w-i-d-e-r interest as the globalization of American-style obesity gathers pace and its fiscal implications become more evident. It's the worst of both worlds as far as industrialized countries are concerned. Not only will many folks live longer but they will also require more (costly) health care given the myriad of obesity-related illnesses. It's just another thing USA#1 cheerleaders routinely overlook: the strain placed on the public purse by the gut-busting expansion of...
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Rogue Traders, or Le Grand Casino Francais

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 6/07/2012 11:24:00 AM
I've long supported the claim that London, not New York, is the financial capital of the world [1, 2]. I guess it's a backhanded compliment to London's claim to be the world's financial capital that earthshaking events for US financial concerns more often than not emanate from there instead of New York. Think of AIG's disastrous credit default swaps (CDS) being written in London. Or, to be current, JP Morgan Chase's London Whale messing around with CDS indices. However, this trail of casino capitalism lacks another element to the story: So London may in fact be laxer and thus more attractive than New York when it comes...
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Bremmer and Roubini's Faulty Russia Analysis

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 6/06/2012 10:26:00 AM
It's nice to find new blogging talent every once in a while, and boy this fellow is impressive. I had never heard of Mark Adomanis before coming across his neat riposte to famous political risk analyst Ian Bremmer and economist Nouriel Roubini on why the West should "blackball Russia." Partly it's because his The Russia Hand blog is country-specific and its host Forbes isn't quite the first name you think of in terms of geopolitics. But don't be fooled: his wide-ranging analysis that considers much beyond that goes on in Russia is spot-on and I find very little to disagree with in his commentary. Here, he takes exception to rather lazy characterizations of Russia as (a) exceptionally authoritarian, (b) having doomed demographics when authorities have actually succeeded in boosting its population as of late and (c) a development laggard compared to other BRICs. To be honest, I find navigation of Forbes blogs leaves much to be desired. This is a real shame since Adomanis is a...
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Egypt, Spain & Far Beyond: Youth Unemployment

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,,, at 6/05/2012 04:08:00 PM
As an educator, I believe there is a personal responsibility on my part to ensure that my students are able to find gainful employment. I am not paid so that those seeking work won't be...simple as that. While there are others in academia who see themselves as  "preparing people for life outside of work" instead of "preparing people for working life," I must disagree. The hoity-toity idea of a liberal education being removed from the humdrum existence of everyday life has deep roots starting from ancient Greece. But, the ubiquity of capitalism and democracy--both disliked by then Greeks way back when (and arguably even...
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Why Japan Favours an FTA With China, Not the US

♠ Posted by Emmanuel at 6/03/2012 10:06:00 AM
I almost missed this, but better later than never: the Economist's Banyan has a perceptive entry into why a pan-Asian FTA incorporating the world's three largest economies US, China and Japan is unlikely. Not only do the US and China have competing regional interests, but their preferences differ as well. As I've written in the past, the US favours a "high-quality" FTA incorporating its pet issues of intellectual property, competition law, government procurement, the environment and labour. In other words, the US is trying to make its trade partners microcosms of itself, although trade theorists alike Jagdish Bhagwati have...
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