Trump Antagonizing Turkey is a Really Bad Idea

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 8/10/2018 05:51:00 PM
Perhaps someone should tell Trump of US bases in Turkey prosecuting the War on Terror.
Here we go again: some months ago, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt embargoed Qatar over its alleged support for terrorism. Qatar, after all, has comparatively cordial relations with the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah. There's also the matter of state-funded broadcaster Al Jazeera continuously blasting Qatar's neighbors over authoritarian rule when Qatar just happens to be an, er, absolute monarchy. What right did the network have to criticize the likes of Saudi and the Emirates?

Enter Trump. Ever so vainglorious, he suggested that the embargo against Qatar was a good idea, and that he encouraged leaders of some of these countries to isolate Qatar besides. Whether the ignoramus was aware that thousands of American troops "fighting terrorism" were stationed in Qatar or not, Trump had to backtrack on his Qatar-bashing a few days later:
But Qatar is also home to the Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts more than 10,000 American servicemen. The air base is the main regional center for air missions against ISIS.

Trump mentioned the base in a May 21 speech in Saudi Arabia, calling Qatar a "crucial strategic partner," but MSNBC reported Thursday that a source close to the President suggested that Trump was perhaps unaware that there were American troops stationed in the oil-rich nation.

"I think it is fair to say that if there is a crisis this would be the first time he was briefed on exactly where our bases are in the region," Nicole Wallace said.
At present, global financial markets for stocks, bonds and currencies are being roiled by Trump fighting Turkey over the release of some evangelical minister jailed over what appears to be a trumped-up charge. Adding fuel to the fire, he's just announced forthcoming additional tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. What started the entire imbroglio were negotiations that broke off over the release of one Andrew Brunson, the pastor detained in Turkey. Likely to please his base of evangelical voters who overlook his enormous and ever-growing portfolio of seven deadly sins, Trump probably calculates that destroying the world's 19th most populous country is a small price to pay for a few more votes come election time Stateside. "Stick it to the "Mooslems"!" is probably the Trumpian rallying cry of them moment.

But, there's also the small, neglected detail that Turkey is a key part of the Western security equation in that part of the world:
It is unlikely that the United States and Turkey will resolve their differences anytime soon. But given Turkey’s geostrategic location—in the backyard of Russia, and bordering Iraq, Iran, and Syria—the United States has an interest in maintaining the relationship. Turkey, meanwhile, does not need to add to its economic woes. The hope, at this point, is that as both Erdogan and Trump play to their bases, they’ll refrain from actions that would be hard to walk back from without embarrassment to either leader’s large ego. Despite the shifts of recent decades, the United States and Turkey still need each other. And the temporary political benefits domestically probably don’t outweigh that.
While it is indeed true that Turkey under Erdogan is moving away from democracy and towards authoritarianism, so is the United States under Trump. Still, it's inadvisable that the American blowhard offend the Turkish blowhard enough as to blow up the postwar security arrangement underpinning NATO. That is, NATO has sought Turkey as a moderating force with regard to Muslims participating in regional security arrangements to counterbalance accusations of religious prejudice. Not that Erdogan is reserved in fanning such insinuations:
President Erdogan described the sanctions on his ministerial colleagues as a “Zionist Evangelist plot” and vowed to retaliate in kind by imposing sanctions on the American counterparts of the Turkish ministers.

Pro-government Turkish newspapers are baying for United States troops to be kicked out of Incirlik, a Turkish air base used in the fight against Islamic State militants and other critical missions, but the Turkish government has not moved in that direction yet.
Insofar as Trump's USA is really punishing Turkey without much enthusiasm from other NATO allies, this brouhaha may be another case of him blowing up long-established relations for the sake of (perceived domestic) electoral gains. But, who would NATO turn to if Turkey boots the US bases out of the country? Where would the Yanks go then? The answers aren't clear, and you do hope Trump is apprised of this potential complication should he continue to punish Turkey over perceived personal slights.