The Annals of Marketing: Betfair vs. Ladbrokes

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/31/2008 07:30:00 PM
As the locals here are wont to say, I have been investigating the best way to make an online "punt" (bet) on whether Big Brown will be able to become the first Triple Crown winner in thirty years. Not being an inveterate gambler, the first two choices that occurred to me were the heavily advertised firms Betfair and Ladbrokes. One of the most studied areas in marketing is new client acquisition, for it is often difficult to find new customers in relatively saturated markets like the UK. Indeed, this is a good chance to see just how marketing works. In the absence of other informational cues, one of the first things consumers...
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Thoughts on the World Bank's New Growth Report

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/30/2008 03:25:00 AM
The World Bank has come out with a new publication entitled the Growth Report: Strategies for Growth and Sustained Development. The effort was headed by Nobel Laureate Michael Spence. It is the product of a lengthy consultative process, with inputs from those with some knowledge on the matter in both the developed and the developing world. The World Bank being the World Bank, the release of this report has resulted in a host of contrasting opinions. Jonathan Dingel over at Trade Diversion has a fairly positive view of the publication, although you should of course go through it yourselves to make up your own minds. Actually,...
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Are You Macho Enough for World Trade?

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/30/2008 01:51:00 AM
For some reason I can no longer recall, I was reminded of John Connally, Richard Nixon's Treasury Secretary between 1971 to 1972. Oddly enough, he was a Democrat appointed by a Republican president. Indeed, he stepped down from his post as Treasury Secretary in order to head "Democrats for Nixon" in 1972. Connally is remembered for scaring other nations with the notion of dollar hegemony as encapsulated in the phrase, "our currency, your problem." The context then, of course, was that changes the US made to its monetary policy would be borne by other nations. However, Connally also made another statement which is even more...
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The Savage Garden of Asian Currency Intervention

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/29/2008 01:08:00 AM
I truly, madly, deeply do believe that this is a rather retro post in more ways than one: The well-respected currency commentator Simon Derrick of the Bank of New York suggests in the Financial Times op-ed below that, just like at the outset of the Asian financial crisis, many countries in the region are gearing up for currency intervention measures to once again defend their respective monetary units. In recent times, the US dollar has been taking it on the chin, and the worry has been more about declining Asian export competitiveness via a weakening dollar. More recently, however, Asian countries have become more concerned...
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After 46 Years, Indonesia Bids Adieu to OPEC

♠ Posted by Emmanuel at 5/29/2008 12:36:00 AM
While not one of its original members, Indonesia was one of OPEC's earlier participants, having joined the producer's association way back in 1962. A lot has changed in the 46 years since Indonesia decided to join OPEC. Ecuador joined, left, and rejoined the organization (in 2007). Angola became a recent member. More pertinently, declining oil production in Indonesia meant that it went from being an oil exporter to being a net oil importer in 2005. Although it has already paid its OPEC membership dues of EUR 2 mio this year, it has signalled that it won't be paying up next year. It is, after all, against its interests to continue...
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The Pop Psychology of WTO Doha Round Deadlock

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 5/28/2008 01:09:00 AM
Eric Berne's 1964 book Games People Play was more or less the starting point for a veritable cottage industry of self-help books, from Thomas Harris's I'm OK, You're OK to those endless spins on the Mars-and-Venus theme. Today, I will use games illustrated in Berne's book to explain what is going on in the current round of WTO trade negotiations. As I am (somewhat) cynical and value non-esoteric explanations, Berne's book fits my objectives here to a T. Unlike many subsequent books in the pop psychology genre, Games People Play is actually quite instructive. Already, I have alluded to Berne's games in calling the convoluted...
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PRC: Of $1.76T in FX Reserves and Shoddy Schools

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/27/2008 10:59:00 PM
| View | Upload your ownThe blogosphere is all agog over news that China's foreign exchange reserves have reached an astonishing $1.76 trillion. Even if that sum proves to be somewhat exaggerated, the PRC is likely to accumulate that much in reserves in fairly short order anyway. It is estimated that 70% of China's reserves are in US dollar denominated assets to ensure that the Chinese yuan does not appreciate too rapidly. Although it is up nearly twenty percent against the US dollar since being floated in 2005, there is no telling what sorts of depths the unloved dollar would plunge to if it weren't for the continued helping...
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Le Strike: Europe Reacts to High Energy Prices

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/27/2008 02:52:00 AM
I sometimes get a chuckle when friends and relatives in the US of A complain about "high" oil prices which now approach $4 a gallon Stateside. To put things into perspective, it is worthwhile to point out that oil is not particularly dear in the US by global standards. Here in Europe, for instance, a gallon of the black stuff will cost you $9. As fuel use is taxed to death in this part of the world, there are obvious incentives to alternative means of personal transportation. However, a lack of alternatives is hitting some harder than others, especially those who cannot but rely on petrol for their living. Today we have two...
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Videoconferencing Our Way to a Greener Future

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in ,, at 5/27/2008 02:13:00 AM
In the past, I've made posts on the ongoing battle over a planned third runway at Heathrow [1, 2]. To be sure, the point of contention here in the UK is not just over another Heathrow runway, but on adding flight capacity in many other locations.From a political standpoint, it's a real fun quarrel as it involves a large cross-section of society. In favour are airlines, airport operators, and a number of other firms; against are those who live near airports, environmentalists, and other green-minded individuals The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has just come out with a report touching on the economics of expanding air travel...
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Karl Marx Was All for Free Trade

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/23/2008 12:32:00 AM
It never ceases to amaze me that posts on the topic of Karl Marx [1, 2, 3] remain among the most popular ones here since I am hardly an authoritative commentator on Marxist thought. Nevertheless, coming from the school of "give them what they want," I will give Herr Marx the pride of place in this post. Cool Papa Marx rides again. For ideological reasons, Marxist thought plays a larger role in British public discourse and academia than in the States. You must remember that Marx is buried in London, and that a BBC poll in 1999 found he was the most influential thinker of the millennium ahead of Einstein, Newton, and Darwin....
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Barack Obama is Wall Street's Chosen One

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in at 5/23/2008 12:05:00 AM
I went over to OpenSecrets.org to get the latest scoop on the fundraising activities of the US presidential candidates. While not totally comprehensive, the site offers a workable picture of the candidates' funding activities. Actually, the title above is kind of misleading for an obvious reason: we cannot be sure whether a particular candidate is given campaign funds because (a) s/he has a favourable disposition towards an interest group or (b) s/he has the best chance of winning. Consider the case of Wall Street. To hedge their bets, Wall Street firms have not placed all their eggs in one basket, contributing to Obama, Clinton, and McCain's respective campaigns. However the relative proportion of allocated funds may reflect preference and/or the belief that there is a frontrunner. Let us begin with Obama:1Lawyers/Law Firms$15,019,0302Misc Business$13,412,3813Retired$9,206,2694Securities & Investment$7,498,5035Education$6,314,947As you can see, Wall Street firms are fourth...
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Bush Sez This is "World Trade Week 2008"

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/22/2008 12:12:00 AM
A few days ago, our good friends at the World Trade Law blog had a post entitled "McCain Goes After the Free Trade Vote." This, of course, made me wonder if there is such a thing as a free trade vote in America, or a meaningful voting bloc positively motivated by trade issues. Let me be perfectly blunt: Selling the free trade cause in America at the present time appears to be as easy as hawking Cosmopolitan subscriptions to the Taliban (now that would be the ultimate expression of free trade ;-) Despite the quixotic nature of the cause, it is notable that another thing which binds Bush and McCain aside from Iraq is, well,...
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Out Now: The WTO's Trade Policy Review of China

♠ Posted by Emmanuel in , at 5/22/2008 12:05:00 AM
One of the things I don't like about looking up documents on the WTO site is that they're usually in Word instead of PDF format. Also, they're usually unavailable in a single document but are borken down by chapters. Unfortunately, both hold true for this important release, the WTO's biennial trade policy review of the PRC. Draw your own conclusions, but the findings and recommendations do not deviate much from Washington's line. First, here is the online summary: The report highlights details about structural reforms, including in the financial and other sectors that have introduced more market-oriented measures aimed at achieving a more efficient allocation of resources. The report also notes that China has continued to be one of the largest recipients of inward FDI and has become a large provider of outward FDI, reflecting its increasing integration into the global economy. However, the report identifies imbalances in the sources of growth in the economy, which is mainly...
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