Soaring global food prices and reluctant donors are pushing
back toward famine, which could see the secretive government turn even more repressive to keep control, a paper released on Wednesday said. "The country is in its most precarious situation since the end of the famine a decade ago," said the paper from the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. North Korea
Stephan Haggard, who wrote the paper with Marcus Noland, said the sharp increase in world prices for commodities had sent ripples through the communist state's economy. The authors are specialists in reclusive
's trade with the outside world. North Korea
"The North Korean rice market is much more integrated with world markets than most people think," Haggard, a professor at the
Universityof California, , said by telephone. North Korea, which even in time of good harvests is about 20 percent short of what it needs, has grown more dependent on rice imported from neighboring China since a famine in the late 1990s that experts estimate killed at least 1 million people, he said. San Diego
Noland told a panel in Washington that after neglecting to reform, reimposing state controls on some trading and kicking out most foreign aid groups, "North Korea is on the precipice of a famine" that would be less severe than in the 1990s.
's limited foreign currency reserves, and poor reputation as a trade partner, mean the rice trade is being hit and ordinary North Koreans are feeling the squeeze, Haggard said. Pyongyang also lost crops and farmland last year to floods. North Korea
A senior official with the U.N. World Food Program, which earlier this month warned of a food crisis in North Korea, said that in some places the price of rice had more than doubled in a year with 1 kg (2.2 pounds) costing about one-third of the monthly salary of an average North Korean worker.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said in late March it expected North Korea to have a shortfall of about 1.66 million ton(ne)s in cereals for the year ending in October 2008, which would be the largest deficit in about seven years.
North Koreahas in the past relied heavily on aid from China, and U.N. aid agencies to fill the gap. South Korea
But the new conservative government in
South Koreahas said it will tie aid to progress its capricious neighbor makes in giving up development of nuclear weapons -- on which is stalling. Pyongyang
Under previous left-of-center governments in Seoul, the North could expect about half a million tonnes of rice and massive fertilizer shipments, with few questions asked -- the price the South was prepared to pay for stability of the Korean peninsula.
has its own problems keeping runaway grain prices under control, which means it cannot afford to be as generous this year. China
has been successful in separating appeals for humanitarian aid from international talks on ending its nuclear weapons program and is unlikely to bend in disarmament bargaining due to the food crisis, analysts have said. North Korea
Noland and Haggard said
would "ultimately weather this challenge politically by ratcheting up repression and scrambling, albeit belatedly, for foreign assistance." North Korea
But without fertilizer and other aid to help farm production, it may be too late to avoid deaths from hunger in the country of some 23 million, they added.
Although it is waning, anti-globalization is still fashionable in certain circles, particularly with trustafarians and assorted Westerners with too much free time on their hands. Tilting against the evils of trade, commerce, and corporations certainly has its appeal in a Marxist sense. Today I feature the plight of a country that pretty much illustrates anti-globalization in operation: the DPRK. Trade? Get outta here! Commerce? Blah! Corporations? Thpppt! Actually, it isn't that extreme anymore [1, 2] as Kim il-Jong is experimenting with being a capitalist roader. It may be downright crazy, but some North Koreans apparently believe that, gee, maybe some of that globalization stuff isn't so bad after all. Nevertheless, analysts over at the Peterson Institute reckon that North Korea is not as self-sufficient as it would like others to think it is. At this time of elevated food prices, this is certainly not a good thing. One of my favourite romantic notions of the anti-globalization movement is the goal of self-sufficiency enabling folks to close their borders, sing "Kumbaya," and live happily ever after. Well, once again, the DPRK is on the brink of famine as Kim il-Jong ups the oppression factor a bit more. Below is the Reuters write-up; you can also read the Peterson Institute summary: